Dilemma for Democrats

With all the special elections coming up or being sought -- from the

governor’s laundry list of propositions to the Coast Community

College School Board recall -- it seemed a good idea to get in the

spirit of things. So Sherry and I attended one of those quaintly

labeled meet-and-greet political soirees last week, held at the home

of good friends on behalf of Marilyn Brewer’s run for the vacant

congressional seat of Chris Cox.

There was wine and fine cheese and a good deal of milling about

and political talk before Brewer took the floor and told us why she

should be sent to Washington as our representative. It was all easy

and informal, with lots of time for questions and opportunities for

one-on-one schmoozing with the candidate afterward.

All this was taking place just five weeks before a field of 17

would be winnowed down to two or possibly one. And it occurred to me

that this is how the British do it all the time, and we would do well

to emulate them. There is very little that can’t be said as well in

five weeks as in the interminable months of rhetoric and spending

that characterize most of our political campaigns.

The Brewer candidacy is reaching out unapologetically for a

consensus of voters who don’t buy in automatically to the

hyper-conservative views -- both social and political -- of Chris Cox

that are mostly being cloned by her front-running opponent, state

Sen. John Campbell. And this poses two fascinating questions. First,

should local Democrats -- acting on the lesser-of-two-evils premise

-- support Brewer rather than one of the Democrats running in this

grab-bag assortment of candidates? And, second -- measured against

the classical models put forth many years ago by Orange County’s U.S.

Senator Tom Kuchel and California Governor Earl Warren -- are there

enough honest-to-God moderate Republicans in the 48th Congressional

District to become a factor in this election?

I’ve been looking for a moderate Republican around these parts for

a long time, and that is what partly -- beside the wine and cheese,

of course -- took me to the Brewer affair. What I heard made me

realize that I needed to moderate my definition of “moderate.”

What clearly sets Brewer apart among the Republican candidates is

her support of such social issues as choice for women and stem cell

research. Other positions she articulated seemed to put her squarely

in the Republican mainstream.

I got my hopes up a few years ago when an organization called the

New Majority surfaced in Newport-Mesa. Sporting a bunch of corporate

heavy-hitters, this group claimed to represent a rebirth of moderate

Republicanism. They did manage to get rid of Tom Fuentes -- who had

Orange County Republicans anchored firmly to the 19th century -- and

strongly supported Arnold Schwarzenegger. We haven’t heard much from

them about the governor’s current performance -- or about how well

the Bush administration measures up to the New Majority’s stated

goals of “fiscal responsibility and social inclusiveness.”

But it would seem that Marilyn Brewer would qualify as a

poster-girl for this group, which would like to broaden the

Republican base statewide to challenge more Democrats. So I asked

Brewer if the New Majority had offered any support. She said they

hadn’t so far. She understood they were divided about supporting her,

but she was still hopeful.

I also asked her what position she had taken on the El Toro

airport and got the “highest and best use of that property” answer.

When I asked her what that meant specifically and got more-or-less

the same answer -- which, by the way, was also Cox’s response to this

question -- I let it go. The political reality is that there are more

people in this district who hated El Toro than who wanted it. Bucking

that fact would be politically unwise.

Across the aisle, the basic problem facing the local Democrats in

this congressional election is quite clear. And seeking an answer has

to start by acknowledging one fundamental political fact of life in

Newport-Mesa: If no candidate pulls 50% of the primary vote, and it

comes down to a run-off between a Republican and a Democrat, the

Republicans -- even if their nominee were Genghis Khan -- are going

to win. Big.

So the question for Democrats becomes this: Should I -- can I --

by-pass the Democratic candidates to vote for Marilyn Brewer, who

appears to be the most moderate Republican, in order to help her get

past Campbell?

While that question is being pondered in Democratic souls (not an

oxymoron), some other questions have come up. Given his steadily

declining popularity figures, will the support of the California

governor help Campbell as much as Arizona Sen. John McCain’s support

for Brewer will help her? And is the Rove factor -- going for the

throat of opponents -- likely to be turned loose on behalf of

Campbell in this internecine Republican contest?

Already there are signs. A Washington D.C. group called Club for

Growth is running anti-Brewer attack ads, and Brewer’s flacks are

responding in kind, claiming -- rather enigmatically -- that Campbell

is “sounding more like John Kerry every day.”

And so it will go. The only upside of this sort of negative

campaigning is that it will last only five weeks. We’ll worry about a

run-off later.

* JOSEPH N. BELL is a resident of Santa Ana Heights. His column

appears Thursdays.