Again, a debate that isn’t

First lesson being back from extended “assignment” (which was true,

by the way): Don’t ever promise you’ll be back.

That aside, there needs to be at least one column before the

primary race to replace Chris Cox is over. It gives me the

opportunity to say what should be on everyone’s mind:

This is it?

For the first time in almost two decades, Newport-Mesa (and other

parts of Republican-heavy Orange County) got a chance to have a

legitimate political race for a higher office and it’s mostly

fizzled, thanks to state Sen. John Campbell again being able to rally

an unbelievable number of endorsements from very early on. He did it

when he ran for the Assembly in 2000 (he had the endorsements by

1999) and again when he ran for the state Senate in 2004.

In the past week or so, chances are you’ve finally received some

strikingly aggressive mailings from former Assemblywoman Marilyn

Brewer, the moderate Republican in the race. The parts that are

strikingly aggressive are being called flat-out lies by Campbell and

his campaign, of course.

These mailings are the hard-hitting -- not to mention negative

mud-slinging -- blows that seemed a sure thing in the days after Cox

was nominated for his post as chairman of the Securities and Exchange

Commission and when everyone was a potential candidate.

But it’s no bad thing that the mud-slinging has been pretty

minimal. What is too bad is that there never was a constructive

debate about where Orange County politics are today. The closest we

saw was the Democratic Party throwing its official support behind

newcomer Steve Young rather than John Graham, who has run against Cox

twice.

There was no public discussion about the Republican Party, to be

certain. Perhaps debate went on in backrooms in a sprawling Newport

Coast complex, but if it did, well, that would pretty much be the old

Republican Party at work.

Important questions that deserved debate included: Are

rank-and-file Orange County Republicans fiscally o7and f7socially

conservative? (If Campbell defeats Brewer -- and more on that in a

second -- it won’t be proof that voters here shun socially liberal

policies. It will be name recognition, endorsements, and that

Campbell’s track record is tolerable to moderates and not worth

voting against.) Is there growing dissent against President Bush’s

policies? Is illegal immigration really a central concern here? How

environmental are Orange County voters?

But on to the only question that’s left: Will Campbell win? It

would be a gigantic October surprise if he didn’t. But, at the same

time, I just can’t believe that he is going to get more than 50% in

the primary and win the election outright.

I’ve heard that claim from a couple of well-placed Republicans,

but I think they are so out beyond right field that I’m going to keep

their names anonymous, both to keep them from potential ridicule and

as a tip of the hat to all the Washington journalists who routinely

do so. (And, let me tell you, it feels good.) Of course, if Campbell

does win the election Tuesday or if a grand jury comes calling, I’ll

consider giving up their identities.

Do vote on Tuesday if you haven’t put your absentee ballot in the

mail already.

* S.J. CAHN is the managing editor. He may be reached at (714)

966-4607 or by e-mail at o7s.j.cahn@latimes.comf7.