Little surprises in the crunching of the numbers

The numbers were slightly different than I had guessed, but John Campbell -- excuse me, Rep. John Campbell -- indeed failed to get a majority of the vote in Tuesday’s special election.

And, as I mentioned last week, it certainly looks like he’s got the far fewest number of votes of anyone now serving in Congress. His 45,719 (good for 44.6% of the vote) is about 15,000 below the lowest total for a representative winning in 2004.

That should change next year, when Campbell has to turn around and run for “reelection.” I’d expect to see him up near former Rep. Chris Cox’s total of 189,000 from 2004.

Cox, interestingly, in that race also totaled about 65% of the vote. If you add American Independent Party candidate Jim Gilchrist’s third-place finish of 25.3% of the vote to Campbell’s, our new congressman jumps up to 70% of the vote -- much more in line with the GOP track record here.

That, of course, is a piece of the great debate still going on: What currency did Gilchrist’s anti-illegal immigration push have with voters?

Most the talk and writing on Wednesday tended to downplay immigration as an issue, pointing out that Gilchrist finished behind Democrat Steve Young, who got 27.7% of the vote, highlighting that Gilchrist’s total of 25,979 votes doesn’t equal a huge movement and noting that Gilchrist got a ton of free advertising via media focus on the immigration story.

I tend to agree, mainly because if immigration was really going to become a front issue -- one that truly drove people’s votes -- it would have happened in this race, under these conditions. Keep in mind, all Gilchrist had to do to win this seat was get 46,000 votes -- less than a quarter of Cox’s vote total in 2004.

He didn’t get close.

Still, I’m less inclined to dismiss immigration as an issue than I was just last week, for two reasons.

The first is that Campbell did focus on immigration and clearly managed to insulate himself against a real charge from Gilchrist. Already a strong candidate, one with political beliefs solidly in the GOP mainstream of the district, Campbell buttressed himself early on against Gilchrist. Perhaps if he’d run a poorer campaign, the results would be different -- or at least closer.

The second reason is because of what was going on in Costa Mesa City Hall as the Registrar of Voters was counting the ballots. The City Council, as the Pilot reports today, decided to work with the Orange County Sheriff and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement to train city police to enforce immigration laws.

There are enough concerns about illegal immigration in Costa Mesa for the council to risk what is sure to be a continuing political maelstrom by approving this plan.

Mayor Allan Mansoor, I assume, will be the one to feel the political hardship the most. He raised the issue and he is up for reelection next year, and I can’t conceive this issue not playing out at the hands of his opponents as well as interest groups from inside and outside the city.

We almost are assured of a remarkably interesting race next fall, aside from the debate -- and who knows what else -- that will go along with the city’s immigration plan.

Know of any outstanding leaders?

Finally, a quick plug for a good cause.

Leadership Tomorrow, an organization dedicated to teaching people how to be more involved in their communities, is seeking nominations for its second annual Celebrating Leadership awards. The group is looking for unsung heroes. If you know of someone you think shows exceptional leadership qualities, you can send an e-mail to info@leadershiptomorrow.org. In the subject line put “Celebrate Leadership Awards.”

Group leaders are looking for a solid description of the person’s leadership abilities and success; a brief biography of the person; and contact information for the person you’re nominating and for you.

Leadership Tomorrow is a good group with an impressive alumni roster -- aside from the mistake of including me last year. The rest of them, I tell you, are terrific.

So if you know of someone who deserves some recognition, send it LT’s way.

* S.J. CAHN is the editor. He may be reached at (714) 966-4607 or by e-mail at s.j.cahn@latimes.com.

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