Dividing up the election results

Growing up, were we all told the canard about how every vote counts.

And did we ever expect it to become true?

Has anyone else noticed that since the contested 2000 presidential election, it seems that every election comes down to just a few votes? It happened last year in Washington state, it happened again ? albeit to a lesser extent ? in the 2004 presidential election, and it just happened in our state Senate race between winner Tom Harman and just-barely-loser Diane Harkey.

The final numbers were eye-popping. Harman won the election, 37,840 votes to 37,604. So, in this case it actually was 236 votes that really counted. (Just assume yours was one. And, yes, I’m assuming Harman now goes on to defeat Democrat Larry Caballero.)

What’s been somewhat amusing in the aftermath is how the results are being spun. Apparently, it was ballots printed in Vietnamese that turned the tide for Harman ? at least that’s how the Harkey campaign saw things.

This, of course, is just the latest example of how easy it is to manipulate numbers and statistics.

I say Harkey should be pointing her finger at Laguna Beach. Harman beat her there 1,340 to 1,131. (And Caballero even got 1,198, the only city where he topped one of the two Republicans.)

Why isn’t she yelling at her neighbors? She only carried her home town of Dana Point by 213 votes. (She can’t argue about their not coming out to vote, however. At 23.4% turnout, the city trailed only Seal Beach in voter participation.)

Or maybe Harman’s home base of Huntington Beach was the difference. He did best her by 913 votes in that city.

The only fact about the breakdown of the final vote is that you can pretty well break it down however you want.

WHICH IMMIGRATION ISSUE WILL IT BE?

Leading up to Monday’s “Day Without Immigrants” protest, a few of us in the newsroom were talking about the immigration issue and how it might play out in this fall’s Costa Mesa City Council election.

We’re not doubting it will play a major role, but we were divided about how big an issue it will be.

There were two lines of thought. The first was that people already are looking to other issues (fill up your car lately?) and that the city’s planned enforcement of immigration law will have fallen off the radar a bit.

That makes a lot of sense. But I think it will play out a little differently. Immigration will still be a hot topic, but the effect here will be muted or altered or somehow skewed by the national debate, which seems to be less about local enforcement than it does about worker permits. The debate will have shifted, and Costa Mesa will be on the fringe of that discussion.

Still, candidates will have to take a position on the city’s plan ? again, ensuring that the topic is central to the campaign.

But the talk I’ve been hearing lately is that field use ? or the lack thereof ? might be a bigger issue.

WHAT CAN YOU BUY

WITH $100,000?

Readers who have kept pace with this column over the years know that I tend to shy away from making predictions, not so much because I’m without opinion but because I’m sure I’ll be wrong. And being wrong in print stinks.

But I have a sense ? a completely-without-logic, pit-of-the-stomach feeling ? about this year’s Newport Beach City Council election that I’m willing to share.

I think a candidate is going to hit the $100,000 mark.

Now, looking through our records, I’m already regretting thinking this because the most money any candidate has raised is about $57,000. So I’m assuming a near doubling of past successes.

But I also think that with all of the pieces coming together this year ? the six seats, the potential ballot measures ? that someone will surely come close.

I just can’t decide if it will be in the race between City Councilwoman Leslie Daigle and Santa Ana Heights resident Barbara Venezia or in the race to fill Councilman Tod Ridgeway’s seat.

The Daigle-Venezia race has the potential because Venezia has the dough (and at least one rich friend in John Crean) to do it, and Daigle might be forced to respond dollar for dollar. And the cost of the Ridgeway seat could climb as candidates work hard to build name recognition.

This raises a question: Will people react negatively to such spending? Thoughts, anyone?