COMMENTS & CURIOSITIES:Long odds and some odd odds

Could you use a thousand bucks? Better yet, how about 10 million of them? I could. So could Shelley Pickens, and the only difference between us is that she was in the running for both this week.

Shelley is a wife and mom who is working on a child development credential at Orange Coast College. Recently, Shelley found out that she was one of 210 national finalists, and the only one in this area, who were guaranteed a $1,000 prize and had a shot at the $10-million grand prize in this year’s Publishers Clearing House Sweepstakes. The timing couldn’t be better for Pickens, her husband, Michael, and their son, William. Shelly’s car recently had an unscheduled interaction with another automobile that will gobble up the 1,000 bucks, if not more.

You are of course familiar with the PCH Sweepstakes, and we’re not talking about Pacific Coast Highway. Giant envelope, very official-looking, sign up for some magazines, take a chance at the big bling, which is $10 million, which is a lot.

The grand-prize winner is descended upon by the Publishers Clearing House Prize Patrol, which you’ve seen in a thousand commercials — a gaggle of men and women who tumble out of the Prize Patrol Van and sprint to the winner’s front door with balloons and flowers and a giant check and breathlessly deliver the good news as the winner clutches his or her chest and screams for his or her better half to come quick. All of which makes me wonder — are single people not eligible? Why is it always someone screaming for their other half to come to the door?

And while we’re on the subject, one among the Prize Patrol is always carrying a briefcase. What is in the briefcase, if I may ask? They got the balloons, the microphones, a camera and a big check. What’s in the briefcase? I don’t get it.

Of course the biggest question of all is this: What are the odds?

According to the Publishers Clearing House website, the odds of winning range from one in 38,000 for a $100 prize, to one in 505,000,000 for the $10 million prize, to one in 2,505,433,700 for the $5-million prize in something called PCH Lotto. In other words, roughly the same odds as my winning this year’s “American Idol” doing “I Will Survive” in drag — which is to say, not good.

The website is also shot through with two interesting phrases: “No Purchase Necessary to Enter” and “Buying Won’t Help You Win,” both of which may ring a bell with those of us with a good memory for steamy headlines.

The disclaimers are the result of lawsuits filed against Publishers Clearing House in 2000 and 2001 by some 25 states, including this one, for unfair and deceptive practices.

The suits, almost all of which were settled, alleged that the Publishers Clearing House mailings implied that the recipient’s big winnings were practically in the mail and that buying subscriptions improved your odds. The suits also alleged that Publishers Clearing House specifically targeted older people, with some seniors receiving scores of mailers, like the elderly Orange County woman cited in the state of California’s suit — she spent more then $50,000 on merchandise and magazine subscriptions. That is a lot of magazines.

Shelley Pickens seems to have a levelheaded view of the whole business, though. “It puts your life into perspective,” she told the Daily Pilot. “You can’t take it for granted. You could step off a curb tomorrow and get hit by a car.”

That is so true.

But it got me to thinking, which is always ill advised. How do the odds of winning the Publishers Clearing House Sweepstakes compare to the odds of getting hit by a car, or any other unfortunate event?

This is fascinating, sort of. Keep in mind that your chances of winning the $10-million grand prize are one in 505,000,000.

Ready?

According to the Insurance Information Institute, the odds of dying in a motor vehicle-related accident in your lifetime are one in 84. Fire or smoke-inhalation: one in 1,113. Falling down steps: one in 2,360. Plane crash: one in 5,051. Drowning: one in 7,278. Falling off a ladder: one in 8,988. Being struck by lightning: one in 79,746.

And my personal favorite, being bitten or struck by dog: one in 117,127.

Moment please. “Bitten by dog” I get. But what the heck does being “struck by dog” mean? I would think the odds of a dog jumping out of the shadows and poking you in the snoot would be a lot higher than one in 117,127, and Sparky would have to hit you really, really hard to kill you, no? Or maybe when dogs hit people they use a two-by-four, or a little baseball bat. Do you get it? I don’t get it.

As soon as we are done here, I am e-mailing the Insurance Information Institute and requesting all available data on exactly how many people were fatally struck by a dog in the last year and whether or not a weapon was used. This is important.

Oh, almost forgot. Did Shelley Pickens score all the marbles? It is my sad duty to report that she did not.

On Wednesday, the 10 million rubles went to Mrs. Elizabeth Green — see? “Mrs. Green”; no spouse, no prize — of Sparta, Tenn., which I assume is in the South. Not only did the Prize Patrol come banging on Elizabeth’s door with balloons and flowers and a big check and a briefcase, but the whole thing was broadcast during a commercial break on NBC Nightly News with Brian Williams.

So there you have it. Everything you need to know about the Publisher’s Clearing House, $50,000 worth of magazines, and being struck and killed by a dog. Woof.

I gotta go.