Home losses still rare

Foreclosure numbers are up over last year for Huntington Beach. But experts and real estate agents don’t think the effect on Huntington Beach is very significant.

Huntington Beach ZIP codes had increases in foreclosures ranging from 166% to 1,300% in fourth quarter 2007 over 2006, according to real estate analysts DataQuick. But the raw numbers are all in double digits or fewer, and academics said rates had been so unusually low that it’s not responsible to look at percent increases.

Foreclosures are still very rare, and only are happening with especially undesirable properties, Huntington Beach Realtor Scott Campbell said. But that’s still a change from the last few years, when they were basically unheard of, he said.

“You’re not going to find that primo house turning up as a repo,” he said. “Somebody will short-sale purchase it before it ever gets there.”

Huntington Beach may have been protected from more of a meltdown by the sheer desirability of its property, Campbell said. Sellers at the peak of the market had so many offers they could demand a big down payment, he said.

“It wasn’t just the money the people were considering,” he said. “If I’m selling my house and I want to buy another house, I want the best offer on what I’m selling to get more leverage on what I’m buying.”

Coastal Orange County cities with fewer first-time homeowners have an advantage in markets like these, said Kerry Vandell, professor of finance and real estate with UCI’s Merage School of Business.

“That’s actually good from the standpoint of Huntington Beach,” he said. “They may have the ability to refinance. The households more likely to be in more trouble are those using their homes as a piggy bank. For folks who have plenty of equity built up who have not refinanced, the rates are going to be going down for them.”

Sales volume reached its lowest point in October, said Campbell, who maintains an index of the market for tract homes in Huntington Beach. It appears to be on its way back up, he said. December marked an increase in prices, but he said he is still waiting on whether it’s a blip or not.

“I can’t even say it’s for real,” he said. “What I need to see is a couple more months of that.”