Cook puts heat on Rohrabacher

A Democratic challenger has never come close to unseating Rep. Dana Rohrabacher in a congressional race — the Republican has served 10 consecutive terms in the House — but several signs show that changing tides will likely give Huntington Beach Mayor Debbie Cook the best shot yet of upsetting him.

Rohrabacher’s campaign said that some scary poll numbers some weeks ago caused the 20-year congressman to work harder than he ever has in a race, sending out mailers and buying TV ads lately.

Cook’s campaign claimed Friday that the race is in a “statistical dead heat.” She is also setting records, running TV ads of her own — something that hasn’t been done by a Democrat in the district as long as either candidate can remember.

“It’s going to be a barn burner. It’s going to be close no matter what they say,” said Cook’s campaign manager Joe Shaw.

Rohrabacher’s campaign disputes that the election is a toss-up, even if it was once too close for comfort.

Mailers and television spots run by Rohrabacher have rebuilt a sizable cushion for the incumbent, according to internal polling, said his campaign manager, Jim Righeimer.

“Groups have done polling recently and they’re showing that this might be the closest election Dana has ever had, but it’s not one that he’s going to lose in any way, shape or form,” Righeimer said.

Neither campaign would release its polling numbers, but both acknowledged that the affluent, heavily Republican coastal district that has primed Rohrabacher for victories in excess of 20 points in every election for the last decade will not be quite as friendly to the GOP candidate this year.

General frustration with the Bush administration, which has overseen the rapid deterioration of the American economy, is one of the biggest factors in heralding the turnaround for Democrats, according to UCI political science professor Carole Uhlaner.

“Given the combination of a strong, well-known current official with good funding and the change in the national tide there’s a chance that Rohrabacher could lose,” Uhlaner said.

Voter registration numbers are shifting nationwide in the Democrats’ favor, and the 46th District is no different.

According to the most recent figures compiled by the Secretary of State, the Republican edge over the Democrats in registration has been cut from about 16% to about 13% and there’s a jump in the number of decline-to-state voters.

These gains are insignificant, though, Uhlaner said. If Cook is to have a chance, Uhlaner said, the key will be to increase Democratic voter turnout and attract decline-to-state voters.

Historically, much higher percentages of registered Republicans have cast ballots than registered Democrats.

The excitement built up by the race between Barack Obama and John McCain might draw enough voters to the polls to do the trick for Cook, though, according to Uhlaner.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report (no relation to Debbie Cook) has also reported that the race will be closer than usual.

Earlier this year the newsletter that tracks election odds changed the race status in the district from “solidly Republican” to “likely Republican,” and listed it as one of the competitive congressional races to watch.

Steve Mailloux, an expert in political rhetoric and image, said there are many parallels between the Obama-McCain race and the Cook-Rohrabacher race.

“Cook characterizes her opponent as ineffective and eccentric, while the Rohrabacher campaign responds that she is inexperienced and desperate,” Mailloux said. “In some ways, the congressional contest represents a more extreme version of the rhetoric in the current presidential campaign: the community activist, liberal Democrat versus the ‘mavericky’ conservative Republican.”

Righeimer thinks that the national dissatisfaction with Congress has been a big cause of Rohrabacher’s diminishing edge, but he thinks publicity will solve the problem. As voters get reacquainted with the congressman whom they supported for many years, he will regain a solid edge, even though it probably won’t balloon back to what it used to be, Righeimer said.

Cook’s campaign thinks that the trends will keep up until Election Day because of dissatisfaction with Rohrabacher and his economic decisions, like voting against both versions of the proposal to give federal financial assistance to lenders.

“This district is higher income, higher education, and they’ve seen their 401Ks and savings depleted by this crisis and the credit crunch is hurting small business,” Shaw said.

The two candidates will meet in their only scheduled debate Tuesday morning.

ALAN BLANK may be reached at (714) 966-4623 or at alan.blank@latimes.com.