EDITORIAL: Rep. might break sweat this year

About six weeks or so ago, Rep. Dana Rohrabacher’s closest supporters sat him down and told him something he hasn’t heard in many, many years.

“You’re going to have to campaign this time.”

Let’s face it. The 46th Congressional District is safe political territory for Republicans. It stretches from Costa Mesa up to Long Beach and then over to Rancho Palos Verdes.

Many representatives in the House perpetually run for office since they only serve two-year terms, but the former President Reagan speechwriter has been on a victory lap for two decades.

Then came some polls his campaign did. His Democratic opponent Debbie Cook was gaining. It looked like a dead heat, and this was from a pollster who didn’t just tell his clients what they wanted to hear.

That shouldn’t have been too surprising. Cook is well-known here in Huntington Beach. When she won reelection in 2004 she was the top vote-getter, by far.

She’s apparently also benefited from the damaged Republican brand. Wracked two years ago by political scandals (remember Jack Abramoff and Mark Foley?) and violence in Iraq threatening to spiral out of control, this year voters are steamed at the GOP for the sputtering economy.

The X-factor might be Barack Obama’s sophisticated get-out-the-vote organization. If it delivers as promised (and as it appears to be in early voting in some states) then it could give Rohrabacher some election-night jitters, especially if it spurs high turnout in Long Beach.

But it would be the equivalent of drawing the proverbial inside straight. In other words, Cook’s path to victory includes a lot of “ifs” because the math normally doesn’t net out for her. The reality is there are more Republicans than Democrats registered to vote in the district.

Still, if Republicans are depressed and stay home and if Democrats are energized, then Rohrabacher’s in trouble. That’s unlikely given that conservatives will be motivated at least to cast a ballot for Proposition 8.

Either way, the district has already won. We’ve been treated to a competitive race that got us all debating substantive issues such as the economy, environmentalism and immigration reform.

Democracy always suffers from a disinterested electorate. Debate is its sunlight. And competition generates the arguments.