Dodgers mailbag: With Clayton Kershaw injured, should the team acquire Yu Darvish?

The Dodgers are 68-31. That translates to a 111-win pace — but who cares.

Who cares, because on Sunday afternoon, Clayton Kershaw went down with a back injury. He exited the game after only two innings. The initial diagnosis was tightness in his lower back. After an MRI and a visit with the team’s back specialist on Sunday night, an initial prognosis was made that he would be out from four to six weeks.

There is no exact timetable for his return, and there may be only a vague timetable when the severity of the situation becomes more clear.

This puts an obvious crimp in the Dodgers plans. At a time when the team was trying to figure out how to upgrade before the July 31 trade deadline, they now must deal with the uncertainty surrounding their best pitcher. For obvious reasons, the central question in this week’s mailbag will involve Yu Darvish.

You can send me questions on Twitter @McCulloughTimes. Let’s do this.

I would trade for Yu Darvish, plus another elite reliever, someone from the pile of Zach Britton, Justin Wilson, Addison Reed, et cetera. I would stomach the agita caused by giving up a significant haul of prospects in order to complete the trades.

The Dodgers are in the process of trying to figure that out. There are a lot of layers here. Let’s go through them, point by point.

1. Will the Rangers be willing to move Darvish?

After a brutal series in Baltimore last week, the Rangers started fielding calls on Darvish, as Jeff Passan reported. The Dodgers are among the teams to have shown interest, according to people familiar with the situation.

Texas is two games under .500. They reside in fourth place in the American League West. They are not a good baseball team. But because of the second Wild Card, they can still pretend to be contenders. The Rangers are 2.5 games away from earning an entry into the one-game playoff, with four teams ahead of them. Contention looks like a mirage — but the Rangers are about to start a 10-game homestand against the Marlins, Orioles and Mariners. Texas could jolt themselves back into contention, or they could continue to prove they are a flawed baseball team in need of a talent infusion.

Jon Daniels, the team’s general manager, is not a fool. He likely sees the gap between his team and the Astros, who lead the division by 17 games and employ a bevy of young talent. He understands his farm system could use replenishment. That said, the Rangers have been knocking on the door in the playoffs for the entire decade, and this roster was built to win in 2017.

Darvish becomes a free agent after this season. Texas may want to re-sign him. The offers from other clubs may not justify the cost of setting Darvish free.

2. Do the Dodgers want to acquire Darvish?

Yes.

3. OK, wise guy, but will they pay the cost?

So, here is how most trade conversations between the Dodgers and other teams begin.

Dodgers: “We would like to acquire [player X].”

Other team: “That’s great. You have the prospects necessary to acquire him. We really like Walker Buehler and Alex Verdugo.”

Dodgers: “Sorry, we would prefer not to trade those guys.”

Other team: “Well, those are the guys we want. We’ll be in touch.”

Click.

This phenomenon is not unique to the Dodgers. It’s how the Braves acquired Dansby Swanson — sometimes, if you ask for the other team’s top prospect, they will say “yes.” The Dodgers are not considered a team you can dupe, but it doesn’t hurt to ask.

The trade deadline is still a week away. The Rangers can afford to shoot for the moon, at this point. They can feign an interest in contending. They can take the time to sift through all the suitors, and play them off each other.

It’s a negotiation. The price is a moving target, and assigning value in these situations can be tricky. One rival executive told me a package built around Yadier Alvarez and Willie Calhoun feels fair. Another told me the Rangers would need more than Buehler or Verdugo to get it done. The conversations between Daniels, Andrew Friedman and the other executives aren’t publicly available, so we’re dealing with incomplete information.

Right now, I would assume the Rangers are holding firm on pressing the Dodgers for Buehler or Verdugo — or more. There’s no reason not to do so, but as the deadline gets closer, the leverage decreases.

A lot can change in a week. The Rangers could get hot. The Rangers could tank. The news on Clayton Kershaw could be relatively minor. It could be devastating. The status of Kershaw could play a significant role in any discussions — and not in the way you think.

4. Do the Dodgers think they need Darvish?

Most people would view the situation like this: The Dodgers are a great team who just lost their ace, therefore they should go to the trade market and try to find the best possible replacement. I subscribe to this view (I am aware that this does not make me a rocket scientist, but I do have a degree in newspaper journalism, and I graduated on time, with only one semester spent on academic probation).

The Dodgers may not agree with this position. I’ve already heard the argument that with Kershaw out, perhaps for a significant amount of time, there is no reason to sacrifice long-term assets for the short-term gain of a player like Darvish. He would be here only for two months, and make only a handful of starts in the playoffs. With an absent or diminished Kershaw, the argument goes, the Dodgers shouldn’t risk losing future stars when the team will need to get lucky to win it all, anyway.

Members of the front office are quick to remind you that the playoffs are a crapshoot, and the best way to win the World Series is to get into the tournament. That’s why the team traded for Rich Hill and Josh Reddick last summer — not because they wanted Hill to pitch Game 2 of the World Series, but because they wanted to win the National League West and give themselves a chance to play Game 2 of the World Series.

The Dodgers are in a different position this year. They hold a 10.5-game lead in the West. They run roughshod over the competition on a nightly basis. Any addition they make would be geared toward filling specific needs on the playoff roster. Hence, the search for left-handed relief that is currently ongoing.

It is my opinion that starting pitching matters less in the postseason than it does in the regular season. Relievers can be used more often, and in higher-leverage situations. The Indians and Royals have shown how it can be done these past few years.

Even so, starting pitching still matters. You still need credible pitchers on the mound. The Dodgers got walloped whenever Kenta Maeda started last October. You would think they would prefer to avoid this scenario this October.

5. How much is too much?

The Dodgers have done an excellent job of self-evaluation in the past couple years. By refusing to trade Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger, they have retained a pair of excellent, affordable stars who will be under contract for six seasons. Teams build dynasties around players like those, and under Friedman, the Dodgers have tried to fashion a player-development system that can function like a conveyor belt delivering players to the majors. They have succeeded in that.

At the same time, I believe this: If you have faith in your farm system, then you’ll be able to groom new prospects. You can find another Alex Verdugo, another Walker Buehler, another Willie Calhoun. I’m not saying the Dodgers need to sacrifice their best assets for Darvish. But they have shown the ability to develop young players. That should provide some fortification if they decide to part with a potentially elite prospect in exchange for an elite pitcher.

6. Will it even matter?

“If not now, when?” Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said last summer, after his team acquired Aroldis Chapman, giving up top prospect Gleyber Torres in a four-player package. It looked like the Cubs’ year, from start to finish, and Epstein wanted to bolster his team’s biggest weakness heading into the playoffs.

As the Dodgers approach October, their weakness is suddenly clear. The rotation will be without Kershaw for at least 10 days. Their fourth starter in a playoff series looks like a choice between Maeda, Brandon McCarthy, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Brock Stewart. The market for starting pitchers is not flush — but it is not barren, either.

This looks like the Dodgers’ year. The team is storming toward a franchise record for victories. The National League is stocked to the rafters with mediocre baseball teams. The Cubs look beleaguered, even after a surge to start the second half. The Nationals have improved their bullpen, but it still cannot be considered reliable. The Dodgers are the best team in the league, perhaps the best team in baseball, and if they can acquire Darvish, they would have either a) an excellent sidekick for Kershaw or b) a reliable replacement, if Kershaw does not return.

I think the Dodgers should do the painful thing and give up the prospects necessary to make the deal. We’ll see if they do.

Zach Britton, Justin Wilson and Jerry Blevins.

Brandon Morrow.

This answer will probably be different in a week, as the team is expected to upgrade the bullpen before the deadline, but Morrow has still earned a chance to handle higher-leverage situations.

With Clayton Kershaw down, the team needs Hyun-Jin Ryu in the rotation. Plus, Ryu does not profile as an elite reliever, as his arsenal is unlikely to play up in limited bursts and it is difficult for him to heat up quickly, given his history of shoulder problems.

That would be fairly shocking. Barnes has been a vital contributor in a limited role this season. But, yes, his value would likely be pretty high. With Yasmani Grandal approaching free agency after next season, though, I don’t see the Dodgers parting ways with Barnes.

One explanation: The team wants Alex Verdugo to play every day, and he would not have that opportunity in the majors. The calculus will become less complicated in September, if the team brings up Verdugo (and he hasn’t been traded elsewhere). But until then, Verdugo probably benefits more from a steady stream of at-bats, rather than a part-time role in the majors.

That sounds depressing.

Josh Ravin makes some sense. The team could use an arm, and Brock Stewart is likely moving into the rotation to fill the other vacancy.

Yes, having bad at-bats in the playoffs will not help the Dodgers win in the playoffs.

The team with the best regular-season record receives home-field advantage in the World Series.

Justin Turner is Kenny Omega. Clayton Kershaw is Kazuchika Okada. Chase Utley is Minoru Suzuki. Yasiel Puig is Tetsuya Naito.

Go with old reliable: Dylan Hernandez.

Shop at Patagonia.

When I’m looking to flood my system with aspartame, Coke Zero is my drink of choice.

It was a pretty good time. They played the self-titled record from front to back, which rocked. I also remembered how much I enjoyed that ridiculous song “Wounded.”

I wouldn’t stray from the classics: “American Pastoral,” “The Ghost Writer” and “Operation Shylock.” But there are a lot of other excellent choices.

andy.mccullough@latimes.com

Twitter: @McCulloughTimes