Is the Dodgers’ ‘best baseball’ indeed still ahead? Five key questions for the second half

NEW YORK — The holes are easy to poke in the Dodgers roster, from their top-heavy lineup to their banged-up starting rotation to their underachieving pitching staff.

Their needs are easy to see, much more than any internal options primed to address them.

Yet, the team resumes its season Friday in an envious position. It leads its division. It has ample trade deadline ammunition. And it enters a three-game series against the New York Mets this week 13 games above .500, owning the second-best odds to win the World Series according to Fangraphs’ computer models.

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July 12, 2023

“I think our best baseball is in front of us,” manager Dave Roberts said before the All-Star break, striking an optimistic tone after a solid but (for the club’s lofty standards, anyway) unspectacular 51-38 start to the season.

“Considering all that we’ve gone through,” Roberts added, “no one’s wavered.”

But with 73 games to go, though, and the Dodgers mere percentage points ahead of the Arizona Diamondbacks for first place in the National League West, plenty about the team remains to be seen.

As the second half begins, here are five questions to contemplate for the rest of their season.

Clayton Kershaw was the Dodgers’ best starter in the first half of the season. But he hasn’t pitched since this June 27 game against the Colorado Rockies because of shoulder soreness.

(David Zalubowski / Associated Press)

He’s no longer at his peak. Yet, he remains the most consequential piece of the Dodgers’ pitching staff.

As it stands right now, the Dodgers desperately need Clayton Kershaw to continue anchoring their pitching staff. Or else …

It’s not the position the Dodgers expected to be in, not after Julio Urías was a Cy Young Award candidate the last two years, Tony Gonsolin was a first-time All-Star in 2022 and Dustin May was expected back at full health after returning from Tommy John surgery.

Alas, May needs season-ending surgery. Gonsolin has been inconsistent. And Urías had regressed before missing six weeks with a hamstring strain.

If the playoffs started now, Kershaw would be the Game 1 starter of the team’s underperforming pitching staff, which ranks 23rd in the majors in ERA.

The only problem: Kershaw is battling another injury, currently on the injured list (though expected back soon) with shoulder soreness.

This is what makes the rotation a key question over the final 2 ½ months, with the team needing at least one other starter to emerge as a co-ace with the 35-year-old Kershaw (who is 10-4 with a 2.55 ERA), if not supersede him entirely between now and October.

Urías (6-5, 4.76) is the clearest such candidate, finally looking more like his old self in his last start before the break. The team also needs more from Gonsolin (5-3, 3.86), who hasn’t recorded a quality start (six-plus innings and no more than three earned runs) since June 13.

More than almost anything, starting pitching can make or break a postseason run. And while several quality arms could be available at the deadline — from Marcus Stroman to Lucas Giolito and Eduardo Rodriguez — there won’t be any transcendant talents available, meaning the Dodgers will need more than just Kershaw.

James Outman, hitting a home run against the Arizona Diamondbacks on March 30, has slowed down offensively since a torrid first month.

(Allen J. Schaben/Los Angeles Times)

The Dodgers built their 2023 squad with youth in mind.

Now, they have to decide which young pieces to rely on for the stretch run.

Already, struggling second baseman Miguel Vargas was demoted, sent back to the minors last week after batting .195 before the break.

The Dodgers’ signing Thursday of veteran center fielder Jake Marisnick could signal reduced roles for James Outman (who has regressed since a sensational opening month) and Jonny DeLuca (who is seven for 33 this season) coming out of the break, as well.

The pitching staff is even more rookie reliant. Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan and Michael Grove have combined for 20 starts and an ERA above 5.00. Unproven prospects make up the organization’s rotation depth, too, led by Gavin Stone, Landon Knack and Ryan Pepiot, who is scheduled to begin a rehabilitation assignment this weekend as he recovers from a strained oblique.

Before the Aug. 1 trade deadline, the team will need to decide which of those names it can count on down the stretch, and where they might need to target experienced big league help on the trade market instead.

The Dodgers have benefited from the play of such veterans as Jason Heyward, left and David Peralta, shown celebrating Peralta’s two-run home run on June 13 against the Chicago White Sox.

(Gina Ferazzi/Los Angeles Times)

One problem the Dodgers haven’t had so far this season: Scoring runs, entering the second half as a top-three offense in home runs, on-base-plus-slugging percentage and runs per game.

To do so, however, they’ve needed superstar production from Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, who are not only third and fourth in the majors in OPS but have played a combined 175 games.

They’ve needed surprise resurgences from veterans Jason Heyward and J.D. Martinez, aging offseason signings who have revitalized their games in L.A.

And they’ve relied on platoon production from a lineup that is rearranged almost every day, having yet to use any one batting order more than five times.

Maintaining that delicate balance of injury luck, MVP form and situational hitting is no guarantee over the rest of the season.

The Dodgers don’t have to change anything at the plate (though, adding another reliable bat or two at the deadline, such as a Tommy Pham, Tyler O’Neill or Lane Thomas could help).

Rather, they need to sustain an offense that has seemingly outperformed most preseason expectations — which is hardly a guarantee, but also a likely prerequisite for them to pursue their World Series aspirations.

Evan Phillips, pitching against the New York Yankees on June 4, has converted 12 of 14 save opportunities for the Dodgers.

(Ashley Landis / Associated Press)

When it comes to the Dodgers’ bullpen this season, there is Evan Phillips … and then everyone else.

At times, Brusdar Graterol and Caleb Ferguson have looked like lockdown, game-saving relievers. In other moments, they’ve been unreliable late-inning options, making the bullpen a bigger guessing game than it has been in years.

The club likely will look for relief help before Aug. 1. They have a track record of uncovering productive bullpen arms this time of year.

But as it stands now — in the wake of another long-term injury to Daniel Hudson — Phillips, Graterol and Ferguson are the Dodgers’ top three options.

When they’re going good, it’s a dynamic trio. But when they aren’t, they can turn a typically stout relief corps into a costly weakness.

Ketel Marte, right, celebrates his two-run home run against the Dodgers on April 8 with Arizona Diamondbacks teammate Josh Rojas. The teams are separated by percentage points atop the National League West.

(Matt York / Associated Press)

The fact the Dodgers have this many questions, yet also this many wins (in the National League, only Atlanta and Miami have more) should be a comforting thought as they look for ways to bolster their team.

After slipping to third place on June 18, they entered the break on a 12-5 tear, bypassing the patchwork San Francisco Giants and finally chasing down the upstart Diamondbacks.

If things go right in the second half, they should capture their 10th division title in the last 11 years, and enter the postseason primed for title contention.

On the other hand, their margin for error remains slim, leaving little room for more of the inconsistencies that hampered the first half of their season.