How trade deadline dynamics have complicated the Dodgers’ pursuit of Garrett Crochet
Garrett Crochet believes he can pitch through October.
“With the way my body’s been feeling and responding to the five-day routine,” the Chicago White Sox ace, and top trade deadline target, said at this month’s All-Star Game. “I think that anything’s possible.”
But whether he gets the chance, with the Dodgers or any other contending club, seemingly grows less likely by the day.
In theory, someone like Crochet should fit what is perhaps the Dodgers’ biggest deadline need.
The club wants an “impact” pitcher, as general manager Brandon Gomes described it this week. Crochet will probably be the best option available, a hard-throwing left-hander with a 3.07 ERA in 21 starts this year, more strikeouts (157) than any other pitcher in the American League and two seasons of team control left after this year.
Why have the Dodgers been hit so repeatedly hard by the pitching injury bug? And when — and at what cost — is the right time to pursue potentially pricey reinforcements?
Crochet does, however, have a looming workload problem; one that could diminish — if not eliminate — his chances of being dealt to a contender before Tuesday’s deadline.
In his first full season back from 2022 Tommy John surgery, Crochet has already doubled his career-high for innings, logging 111 this year after never previously surpassing 54. Because of that, Crochet’s workload might need to be limited the rest of the year, with the 25-year-old perhaps requiring a break before the playoffs or a late-season shift into the bullpen.
On Thursday, Crochet then threw a wrench into the process.
According to multiple reports, the left-hander would not only like to remain on a normal starter’s schedule for the rest of the year, but would also want a contract extension from any club that acquires him — reportedly a requirement before he agrees to pitch in October, or even considers some sort of late-season relief role.
The news added another complicated layer to what was already the Dodgers’ biggest trade deadline conundrum.
Even under the simplest of circumstances, lining up on a trade package for the pitcher was proving to be a challenge in itself.
And now, less than a week away from the deadline, the situation is underscoring the Dodgers’ difficulties in this year’s market — where there are no easy deals to address their biggest needs.
Even before Crochet’s desire for a contract extension, several factors were working against the Dodgers in their negotiations with the White Sox.
From Chicago’s point of view, Crochet is as valuable as any commodity on this year’s trade market — barring the Detroit Tigers making the surprise decision to deal Cy Young front-runner Tarik Skubal.
It’s clear the Dodgers need to make moves at the trade deadline to become a World Series-winning team, and they shouldn’t think twice about it.
When the White Sox dealt another controllable ace, Dylan Cease, to the San Diego Padres earlier this year, they got four players back, including three of the Padres’ top 10 prospects, according to MLB Pipeline rankings, and one top-100 prospect in the sport overall.
Acquiring Crochet, who has an extra year of team control compared to Cease, figures to cost at least that much.
Crochet’s workload concerns, however, changed the calculation for a team like the Dodgers. If he were unable to serve as a postseason ace this year, it would diminish his short-term value to any contending club. But if he keeps pitching regularly and increases his workload too much, it could create concerns about long-term impacts in the future.
It’s why, while the White Sox would likely target the top of the Dodgers’ farm system — catcher Dalton Rushing and outfielder Josue De Paula would be the biggest potential prizes — the Dodgers would almost certainly be reluctant to part with so much.
De Paula is a 19-year-old high-A slugger ranked as one of MLB Pipeline’s top 100 overall prospects. With a 6-foot-3 frame and powerful left-handed swing, he has received comparisons to Houston Astros star Yordan Alvarez. And as one scout recently described it, his young age and sky-high potential make him, at this juncture, a virtually “untouchable” prospect.
Rushing, the team’s 2022 first-round pick, is a fellow top-100 prospect who is even closer to reaching the majors, as a 23-year-old slugger currently at the double-A level.
Some industry evaluators have wondered whether this deadline could be an optimal time for the Dodgers to move Rushing. After all, his pathway to the majors is blocked, with Will Smith signed to a 10-year extension behind the plate (and Shohei Ohtani locked in for the foreseeable future at DH). Rushing’s value around the sport is at a high point as well, thanks in part to his 25 home runs since the start of last year.
“Obviously, if he gets to the big leagues and crushes it, his stock will go up,” one rival scout said. “But he’s been so good with the bat as a pro that it’s hard to imagine it gets better.”
That means, for the Dodgers, this deadline has really become a question of “opportunity cost” — forcing them to weigh if there are any potential deals even worth considering for such highly touted prospects.
And while, on paper, Crochet might have been a fit, the realities of this year’s market have made most blockbuster moves appear like a long shot.
With the league’s July 30 trade deadline approaching, the bottom half of the Dodgers’ lineup has become a source of speculation surrounding the team’s potential deadline plans.
That’s not to say the Dodgers couldn’t look elsewhere for an impactful deadline splash.
The team has interest in another White Sox star, outfielder Luis Robert Jr. The best rental starter on the market, Jack Flaherty of the Detroit Tigers, is a pitcher they have pursued in the past.
There will be plenty of other names that could fit the Dodgers roster, too, from rental outfielders like Jesse Winker and Tommy Pham (who has expressed interest in joining the Dodgers before), to high-leverage relievers like Tanner Scott and Carlos Estévez (who could shore up the bullpen in lieu of starting pitching reinforcements), and even utility infielders with multiple years of control like Luis Rengifo and Nico Hoerner (who were linked to the team by AM 570 this week).
But, in all likelihood, the Dodgers will struggle to address their biggest need on the mound, with the difficulties surrounding their pursuit of Crochet underscoring the imperfect nature of this year’s deadline market.
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