2016 MLB preview: National League projections

A team-by-team and division-by-division look at the National League.

Bill Shaikin’s team outlooks are listed in predicted order of finish. Lineups and rotations are projections.

WEST DIVISION

1 l DODGERS

2015 l 92-70, 1st in West. Last year in playoffs l 2015

The Dodgers as they stand today? No way. But the Dodgers can make over their roster at any time, and the mounting pressure on the front office might finally make this the summer that legitimate prospects are traded for legitimate midseason upgrades. All that depth, all that urgency, and all those injury issues, and they could turn over the outfield and the non-Clayton Kershaw part of the rotation by October.

STARTERS

LF C. Crawford

RF Y. Puig

3B J. Turner

1B A. Gonzalez

C Y. Grandal

2B H. Kendrick

SS C. Seager

CF J. Pederson

PITCHERS

LH C. Kershaw

LH S. Kazmir

RH K. Maeda

LH A. Wood

RH R. Stripling

Closer

RH K. Jansen

::

2 l ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

2015 l 79-83, 3rd in West. Last year in playoffs l 2011

There might be no major leaguer under more pressure than Shelby Miller. Zack Greinke cost the Diamondbacks money — $206.5 million — but Miller cost them the first overall pick in last year’s draft, and more. NL West starters last year with a lower ERA than Miller: Clayton Kershaw, Greinke and Madison Bumgarner.

STARTERS

2B J. Segura

CF C. Owings

1B P. Goldschmidt

RF D. Peralta

C W. Castillo

3B M. Lamb

LF Y. Tomas

SS N. Ahmed

PITCHERS

RH Z. Greinke

RH S. Miller

LH P. Corbin

RH R. De La Rosa

LH R. Ray

Closer

RH B. Ziegler

::

3 l SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

2015 l 84-78, 2nd in West. Last year in playoffs l 2014

It’s an even year. And no one should take spring training statistics too seriously. But the Giants lavished more than $200 million upon Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija. If one starter had struggled all spring, whatever. But all five did — none had an ERA under 7.00 through Wednesday — and all but Bumgarner are on the wrong side of 30.

STARTERS

CF D. Span

2B J. Panik

3B M. Duffy

C B. Posey

RF H. Pence

1B B. Belt

SS B. Crawford

LF A. Pagan

PITCHERS

LH M. Bumgarner

RH J. Cueto

RH J. Samardzija

RH J. Peavy

RH M. Cain

Closer

RH S. Casilla

::

4 l COLORADO ROCKIES

2015 l 68-94, 5th in West. Last year in playoffs l 2009

Third baseman Nolan Arenado could ask Paul Goldschmidt about MVP candidates marooned on mediocre teams. For the first time since 2006, Troy Tulowitzki will not be the Rockies’ opening day shortstop. Rookie Trevor Story will be, and he could force the Rockies’ hand even after Jose Reyes serves an expected suspension.

STARTERS

CF C. Blackmon

SS T. Story

RF C. Gonzalez

3B N. Arenado

LF G. Parra

1B B. Paulsen

C N. Hundley

2B D. LeMahieu

PITCHERS

LH J. De La Rosa

RH C. Bettis

RH T. Chatwood

RH J. Lyles

RH C. Bergman

Closer

RH J. Motte

::

5 l SAN DIEGO PADRES

2015 l 74-88, 4th in West. Last year in playoffs l 2006

Tyson Ross, a 6-foot-6 right-hander, might be the Padres player most likely to make the 2016 All-Star game, and the one most likely to fetch the greatest return in a trade to help a rebuilding team. Would the ¿Padres dare trade him before the All-Star game, in a year the Padres are hosting the game?

STARTERS

CF J. Jay

2B C. Spangenberg

RF M. Kemp

1B W. Myers

3B Y. Solarte

C D. Norris

SS A. Ramirez

LF M. Upton

PITCHERS

RH T. Ross

RH J. Shields

RH A. Cashner

LH R. Erlin

RH D. Pomeranz

Closer

RH F. Rodney

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CENTRAL DIVISION

1 l CHICAGO CUBS

2015 l 97-65, 3rd in Central. Last year in playoffs l 2015

This probably is a stupid pick. The Cubs are all of a sudden this year’s version of the 2015 Washington Nationals — a team so talented that it cannot possibly lose its division. And the competition is much tougher in the NL Central than in the NL East. But the young Cubs did win 101 games last season, playoffs included.

STARTERS

CF D. Fowler

RF J. Heyward

2B B. Zobrist

1B A. Rizzo

3B K. Bryant

LF K. Schwarber

SS A. Russell

C M. Montero

PITCHERS

RH J. Arrieta

LH J. Lester

RH J. Lackey

RH J. Hammel

RH K. Hendricks

Closer

RH H. Rondon

::

2 l PITTSBURGH PIRATES

2015 l 98-64, 2nd in Central. Last year in playoffs l 2015

Over the past three years, the Pirates won 280 games, two more than the Dodgers. The Dodgers won their division every time; the Pirates got into the wild-card game every time. They still haven’t won a postseason series since 1979. They have David Freese at third base — and batting third against right-handers — until Jung Ho Kang returns from knee surgery.

STARTERS

1B J. Jaso

CF A. McCutchen

3B D. Freese

LF S. Marte

C F. Cervelli

RF G. Polanco

2B J. Harrison

SS J. Mercer

LH F. Liriano

RH G. Cole

LH J. Niese

LH J. Locke

RH J. Nicasio

Closer

RH M. Melancon

::

3 l ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

2015 l 100-62, 1st in Central. Last year in playoffs l 2015

Since Albert Pujols defected to the Angels after the 2011 season, the Cardinals have won 21 postseason games, the Angels none. The Cardinals lost Jason Heyward and John Lackey to the rival Cubs, and they were outbid for David Price. The key player could be slugging outfielder Randal Grichuk — and the Angels would look good with an outfield of Mike Trout, Kole Calhoun and Grichuk, sent to St. Louis in the Freese trade.

STARTERS

3B M. Carpenter

RF S. Piscotty

LF M. Holliday

CF R. Grichuk

1B M. Adams

2B K. Wong

C Y. Molina

SS J. Gyorko

PITCHERS

RH A. Wainwright

RH M. Wacha

RH M. Leake

LH J. Garcia

RH C. Martinez

Closer

RH T. Rosenthal

::

4 l MILWAUKEE BREWERS

2015 l 68-94, 4th in Central. Last year in playoffs l 2011

Ryan Braun isn’t old, at 32, but he is older than the Brewers’ first-year general manager, David Stearns. The Brewers are committed to tanking — er, rebuilding — and already have traded Jean Segura, Francisco Rodriguez, Adam Lind and Khris Davis. Jonathan Lucroy could fetch a haul if he returns to All-Star form.

STARTERS

RF D. Santana

C J. Lucroy

LF R. Braun

1B C. Carter

3B A. Hill

2B S. Gennett

SS J. Villar

CF K. Broxton

PITCHERS

RH W. Peralta

RH J. Nelson

RH M. Garza

RH T. Jungmann

RH C. Anderson

Closer

RH J. Jeffress

::

5 l CINCINNATI REDS

2015 l 64-98, 5th in Central. Last year in playoffs l 2013

The pitching could be hideous, but the lineup could be decent, because Brandon Phillips invoked his no-trade clause and a trade to send Jay Bruce to the Blue Jays collapsed. The Reds traded All-Star Todd Frazier for a Dodgers prospect package led by second baseman Jose Peraza, for whom there is no room in the lineup.

STARTERS

CF B. Hamilton

3B E. Suarez

1B J. Votto

2B B. Phillips

RF J. Bruce

C D. Mesoraco

LF A. Duvall

SS Z. Cozart

PITCHERS

RH R. Iglesias

RH A. DeSclafani

RH T. Melville

RH A. Simon

LH B. Finnegan

Closer

RH J. Hoover

::

EAST DIVISION

1 l WASHINGTON NATIONALS

2015 l 83-79, 2nd in East. Last year in playoffs l 2014

You can argue whether Mike Trout or Bryce Harper is the best player in baseball, but you can’t argue the supporting cast. Who among the non-Trout Angels would crack the Nationals’ lineup? Albert Pujols, if he’s healthy. Kole Calhoun for Jayson Werth? Probably. Garrett Richards might crack the Nationals’ rotation.

STARTERS

CF B. Revere

3B A. Rendon

RF B. Harper

1B R. Zimmerman

2B D. Murphy

LF J. Werth

C W. Ramos

SS D. Espinosa

STARTERS

RH M. Scherzer

LH G. Gonzalez

RH S. Strasburg

RH T. Roark

RH J. Ross

Closer

RH J. Papelbon

::

2 l NEW YORK METS

2015 l 90-72, 1st in East. Last year in playoffs l 2015

Yoenis Cespedes enlivened spring training by spending $7,000 to buy a hog, then sending it for slaughter. So it seems fitting that the Mets are selling 38-ounce steaks at Citi Field this season, for $154. They’ll also sell you bacon on a stick, coated with peanut butter and pretzels. Not saying the NL champs are fat and happy, but, you know.

STARTERS

RF C. Granderson

3B D. Wright

CF Y. Cespedes

1B L. Duda

2B N. Walker

LF M. Conforto

C T. d’Arnaud

SS A. Cabrera

PITCHERS

RH M. Harvey

RH J. deGrom

RH N. Syndergaard

LH S. Matz

RH B. Colon

Closer

RH J. Familia

::

3 l MIAMI MARLINS

2015 l 71-91, 3rd in East. Last year in playoffs l 2003

Don Mattingly walked away from the Dodgers and chose instead to work for mercurial owner Jeffrey Loria, becoming the Marlins’ seventh manager in the seven years since they last posted a winning record. There’s a lot to like in Giancarlo Stanton, Dee Gordon and Jose Fernandez. What could go wrong? Oh, right: Loria.

STARTERS

2B D. Gordon

CF M. Ozuna

LF C. Yelich

RF G. Stanton

1B J. Bour

3B M. Prado

C J. Realmuto

SS A. Hechavarria

PITCHERS

LH W. Chen

RH J. Fernandez

LH A. Conley

RH T. Koehler

RH J. Cosart

Closer

RH A. Ramos

::

4 l PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

2015 l 63-99, 5th in East. Last year in playoffs l 2011

That the Phillies skidded from 102 victories in 2011 to 99 losses last year only looks like tanking. It was an absence of long-term planning, and it cost General Manager Ruben Amaro his job. Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Carlos Ruiz, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay got old¿ together, and the club crashed.

STARTERS

2B C. Hernandez

CF O. Herrera

3B M. Franco

1B R. Howard

C C. Rupp

RF T. Goeddel

SS F. Galvis

LF P. Bourjos

PITCHERS

RH J. Hellickson

RH A. Nola

RH C. Morton

RH J. Eickhoff

RH V. Velasquez

Closer

RH D. Hernandez

::

5 l ATLANTA BRAVES

2015 | 67-95, 4th in East. Last year in playoffs l 2013

The Braves had envisioned building a contender in time for the opening of their new ballpark next year. No way, but they could enhance an impressive stack of prospects with some trades this summer. For now the Braves’ website invites fans to “learn about the move of the famous Chick-fil-A Cow to SunTrust Park.”

STARTERS

CF E. Inciarte

SS E. Aybar

1B F. Freeman

3B A. Garcia

RF N. Markakis

LF H. Olivera

C A. Pierzynski

2B J. Peterson

PITCHERS

RH J. Teheran

RH M. Wisler

RH B. Norris

RH J. Chacin

RH W. Perez

Closer

RH J. Grilli