There’s often a wild card in NFL deck
Keep a close eye on this weekend’s NFL games, because there’s probably a Super Bowl participant in this round — even though the Packers, 49ers, Patriots and Ravens are not involved.
At least one of the Super Bowl teams in five of the past six years played in a wild-card game.
This year, there are plenty of questions in the first round.
Can anyone stop Drew Brees and that New Orleans offense?
Has the clock run out on Tebow Time?
Can Ben Roethlisberger walk, let alone run? And with the Pittsburgh quarterback’s history of playing through pain, will it even matter?
And which young quarterback will emerge victorious from the Cincinnati-Houston game?
FOR THE RECORD:
NFL achievements: An earlier version of this story said that the last team to lead the league in rushing and win the Super Bowl was the 1984 Chicago Bears. It was the 1985 team.
A look at the teams playing this weekend, with reasons why they might or might not succeed:
They’re the one: In addition to the NFL’s seventh-ranked defense, the Bengals have an explosive combination in the passing game: quarterback Andy Dalton to receiver A.J. Green, two first-year players who look nothing like rookies.
They’re one and done: The Bengals were 3-5 in the second half of the season, and two of those victories came against St. Louis and Cleveland, winners of a combined six games. Cedric Benson has fumbled five times over the past three weeks.
They’re the one: Beginner’s luck? The Texans are in the playoffs for the first time in franchise history, and they’re playing a team they beat on the road, 20-19, less than a month ago.
They’re one and done: Texans rookie quarterback T.J. Yates has five career starts, making Dalton look like a grizzled veteran. Yates is slated to start despite suffering a separated left shoulder when he was sacked on Houston’s first play last Sunday.
They’re the one: Saints, meet Suh. Suh, meet Saints. The Lions will have defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh when they play at New Orleans this time. He missed the Lions’ 31-17 loss to the Saints in December because he was serving the first game of his two-game suspension. Detroit also didn’t have cornerback Chris Houston, safety Louis Delmas and, for most of the game, defensive tackle Nick Fairley.
They’re one and done: If Green Bay backup Matt Flynn could throw for 480 yards and six touchdowns against the Lions, Brees should be able to do a little damage himself.
New Orleans Saints
They’re the one: The Saints were 8-0 at home this season for the first time in club history, and they set NFL records in net yards (7,474) and net passing yards (5,347).
They’re one and done: New Orleans has got to brace against overconfidence. Just last season, the Saints were upset in the first round at Seattle, the only NFL team to reach the postseason with a losing record. In their Super Bowl season, the Saints didn’t have to worry about overconfidence — they lost their last three regular-season games.
They’re the one: The Falcons have the offensive pieces in place. For only the second time in franchise history, they have a 4,000-yard passer in Matt Ryan, a 1,000-yard rusher in Michael Turner, and a 1,000-yard receiver in Roddy White.
They’re one and done: Although they had 10 wins, the Falcons went 2-4 against teams with winning records, 7-1 against teams with losing records, and 1-1 against .500 teams. They went 1-4 against the playoff field, beating the Lions.
They’re the one: Despite a brief dip in performance last month, Eli Manning has had a tremendous season. He set an NFL season record with 15 touchdown passes in the fourth quarter, and his fourth-quarter passer rating of 110 was second-best in the league.
They’re one and done: The Giants can score like crazy, but they give up a lot of points and have a hard time covering anyone. When Seattle’s Tarvaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst combine to throw for 300 yards against you, and so does Rex Grossman, you’ve got coverage issues.
They’re the one: The Steelers have a wealth of experience. They’ve won two of their last three playoff games in Denver, and they have won their past three road games in the playoffs (that doesn’t include their Super Bowl loss to Green Bay, of course.)
They’re one and done: Roethlisberger is limping around on a bum ankle, and he’s facing a defense with two elite pass rushers in Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller. On defense, the Steelers have just 15 takeaways, a modern-era low for them, and they’ve allowed backs to gain 100 yards against them three times this season. Normally, that’s a rarity in Pittsburgh.
They’re the one: We’ve all seen what the power of belief can do for the Broncos. They have won seven games when starting Tim Tebow at quarterback, and his play can be an emotional boost for all three phases. The Broncos led the league in rushing this season, averaging 164.5 yards a game.
They’re one and done: Rushing alone won’t get it done. Tebow has completed only 46.5% of his passes, the league’s only quarterback who finished below 50%. Being able to run the ball is great, by the way, but the last team to lead the league in rushing and win the Super Bowl was the 1985 Chicago Bears.
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