Seize the Grey earns wire-to-wire Preakness Stakes win on muddy track
BALTIMORE — One truism in horse racing is never count out Hall of Fame trainer Wayne Lukas. At 88, he walks with a cane but still climbs aboard his pony and supervises morning workouts.
On Saturday, in the 149th running of the Preakness Stakes, Lukas won this race for the seventh time with Seize the Grey in a wire to wire effort. It ended Mystik Dan’s effort to compete for the Triple Crown. The Kentucky Derby champion ran a good race, finishing second 2 ¼ lengths behind the winner.
Lukas won his first Preakness in 1980, 44 years ago, with Codex.
Asked how this one felt, he deadpanned, “Like the first one.”
Watch Seize the Grey win the 2024 Preakness Stakes
Seize the Grey held off a late push by Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Grey to win the 149th running of the Preakness Stakes in Baltimore Saturday.
Eight horses competed on a muddy track, with 25-year-old jockey Jaime Torres leading Seize the Grey to the win. It was Torres’ first Triple Crown victory.
SEIZE THE GREY SEIZES THE DAY.
— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) May 18, 2024
HE WINS THE 149th PREAKNESS STAKES, DENYING MYSTIK DAN THE CHANCE TO RUN FOR THE TRIPLE CROWN. pic.twitter.com/VTwzLMRLtL
Bob Baffert says Imagination needs to step up to win the Preakness
BALTIMORE — Trainer Bob Baffert did not arrive in Baltimore until Thursday evening, meaning the media circus that can sometimes surround him didn’t get to see him until Friday morning.
So, with about a dozen media and publicists completely encircling him, he talked for about 20 minutes outside of where Imagination was in his stall chomping down on hay.
Baffert said Imagination, the second choice at 3-1, need to step up and improve if he has any chance of winning Saturday’s Preakness.
“His races have been good, but he needs to separate himself,” Baffert said. “He has not done it in his last races. He just hangs in there with them. Off his last work, I was very encouraged the way he is starting to realize that it’s OK to take off. He likes to get with a horse and then stays with them.”
Baffert, who has won the Preakness eight times including last year with National Treasure, believes Imagination is the best 3-year-old in his barn, but got there by attrition.
“He is going to have to step it up a level to be there with them,” Baffert said. “I am hoping this will be his coming out party race. We need him now with Muth out. We really, really need him badly.”
The year started with Nysos being his 3-year-old, but he came off the Triple Crown trail. Then Muth was at the top of his barn, but he spiked a fever on Wednesday and was scratched from the Preakness. Baffert said he was hoping Nysos would be ready for the Haskell Stakes on July 20, but now that is off the table. He also hoped that Muth could be back for the Belmont in three weeks, but that plan in unrealistic.
“He is sick,” Baffert said. “The blood work definitely said he has an infection going on, but the blood work was better [Friday], so he is going in the right direction.”
Preakness winner could earn a big bonus payday
BALTIMORE — There could be a big payday for whoever wins Saturday’s Preakness Stakes, but not immediately. They have to win two more races.
The Stronach Group, also known as 1/ST Racing, is offering a $5 million bonus to any horse that wins the Preakness, the new California Crown and the Pegasus Stakes. The California Crown is Sept. 28 at Santa Anita and Pegasus is Jan. 25 at Gulfstream. TSG owns Santa Anita and Gulfstream and just turned over Pimlico Race Course to the state.
It would be an interesting proposition for whichever horse wins. Certainly, if Bob Baffert’s Imagination wins, he would likely go to the California Crown on Sept. 28 because he will be stabled at Santa Anita. It’s a home game. The California Crown is a race in which older horses are allowed to run, not just 3-year-olds.
But if Mystik Dan wins, he would certainly come back in three weeks and run in the Belmont and then might get a short break before coming back in the Travers Stakes at on Aug. 24. Would it be worth it to then run him back in a month? Or, if Mystic Dan wins the Triple Crown, might he be readied for the breeding shed with no more racing?
Of course, bonuses such as this are rarely fully underwritten by the sponsoring body. They simply buy a type of insurance from some entity that is willing to assume all the risk.
Aidan Butler, chief executive of 1/ST Racing, would not say how much the insurance cost other than “a lot.” However, he did say that normally the cost is about 10% of possible payout, or around $500,000 in this case, and confirmed this one was in that neighborhood.
How did owners settle on the unique spelling of Mystik Dan’s name?
BALTIMORE — Ever wonder why Mystik Dan’s name is spelled like it is and how that came into being?
Joe Nevills of the Paulick Report did the work and got to the bottom of it.
It seems as if the co-owner and co-breeder of Mystik Dan is Daniel Hamby III. His father, Daniel Hamby Jr. was a sales rep for the Mystik tape company in the 1960s. The company was out of Boston. In 1970, Daniel Hamby Jr. founded the Sigma Supply company back in his hometown of Hot Springs, Ark.
But who doesn’t remember their first significant job?
It appears as if Mystik tape company is no longer around or has been swallowed up by some other tape company. However, if you go to ebay, you can buy some “vintage” (code word for old) Mystik tape.
Daniel Hamby Jr. died on Feb. 22, 2021. The colt that would become Mystik Dan was born a few days later on March 4, 2021. So there you have it. Mystik for the company and Dan for one of the owner’s father.
Santa Anita’s Corposo finishes second at Black-Eyed Susan Stakes
BALTIMORE — The Preakness is not to only big race over Friday and Saturday at Pimlico Race Course. There are 14 stakes races, eight of them graded worth about $4.3 million. Horses ship in from all over, including Southern California, to run in the undercard races.
One such Santa Anita horse made a big splash in finishing second in Friday’s $300,000 Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes for 3-year-old fillies going 1 1/8 miles. Gun Song won the race taking advantage of a very slow pace essentially eliminating all closer. The margin was 3 ¼ lengths.
The Peter Eurton-trained Corposo was second in her first race outside of Santa Anita. She entered the race with one win in three starts and a third-place finish in the Santa Anita Oaks.
“I am very proud of her,” Eurton said of Corposo. “I think she is still very green. I am taking nothing away from the winner, she ran huge. She got the lead that they wanted.
“I am tickled, I thought she was done inside the quarter pole. She got a little more focused. She tends to look around and check things out. We are thinking she can build off this one.”
Gun Song paid $6.80 to win. Corposo was the second betting favorite at 3-1.
“I was really happy with the filly,” said jockey Tyler Gaffalione. “She’s still immature. The winner ran great [Friday], but there’s nothing to hang our heads about finishing second.”
Meet Sonny McPeek, the only dog with Preakness Stakes press credentials
BALTIMORE — The star of Friday morning’s barn activity, a time when owners, trainers, friends and media hang out and talk to each other, was one who made it easily through security, because, well, he had the right credential.
Meet Sonny McPeek, a 5-year-old yellow labrador.
It didn’t take long for Sonny to be everybody’s best friend and had his share of treats and biscuits. But no biscuits from his owner, Mystic Dan trainer Kenny McPeek.
New media member for the @PreaknessStakes. Will surely be biased towards Mystik Dan and @KennyMcPeek. pic.twitter.com/pXb5bwHiwq
— Tim Wilkin (@tjwilkin) May 17, 2024
“If I did [give him treats], he would be fat as a house,” McPeek told the Maryland Jockey Club press office. “The thing about him is that he takes the edge off of everything. He doesn’t worry about anything. He’s not going to be uptight. He is just a happy, happy dog who loves people. I have never seen anything but that with him.”
Sonny being at the Preakness was, in theory, a condition of Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan coming to race at Pimlico.
“When they called [to invite us to the Preakness.] I said I wasn’t coming without the dog,” McPeek said. “They said, ‘Don’t worry, he is allowed.’”
Animals that are not horses are often found on the backstretch at race tracks. There are usually dogs, a lot of cats who kill the mice, goats and chickens. The difference here is that they are never given their own credential stamping their authenticity.
Sonny was listed as “barn security” with access to the barn area along with general site access. He has also been seen at Churchill Downs, Keeneland, Fair Grounds, Oaklawn Park and Saratoga.
Sonny was on a leash being held either by Kenny or his daughter Jenna.
He only barked a couple times when he was trying to get the attention of someone who had treats.
Trainers adapt and support ban on giving horses Lasix
BALTIMORE — Racing has been trying to clean up its problem of overmedicating or unnecessarily medicating its horses. The main culprit was a diuretic furosemide, commonly referred to as Lasix.
The stated reason for its use is to allow a horse to breath easier when running, avoiding exercise induced pulmonary hemorrhaging (EIPH). For decades, trainers have been using it on every horse regardless of if they need it or not. Don’t want to miss an advantage if there is one to be taken.
Regulatory agencies decided it got out of control. In 2021 it was finally banned in the Triple Crown races and most stakes races. States such as California and New York were the first to prohibit race day Lasix. It has almost been weeded out of the sport and there seems to be benefits of it.
Mystik Dan trainer Kenny McPeek is a fan of the Lasix ban and points to its elimination as a reason his Derby winner can come back on two weeks rest so easily.
“Today it’s easier because we’re not running on Lasix,” McPeek said. “Elimination of Lasix has been really good for the sport. Graded stakes horses shouldn’t run with it. They can come back quicker. There is less dehydration level. It’s a good thing to come back in two weeks. [Mystik Dan] might even improve.”
Trainers started as skeptical but have grown used to the idea.
“The longer we’ve done it, the more I’ve been able to adjust,” Santa Anita-based Doug O’Neill told Beth Harris of the Associated Press in 2021. “The horses have kept their form without it. They do seem to come out of the races with more energy, and they get back to their normal exercise energy quicker so they recover quicker without Lasix.”
A horse that was administered Lasix can lose between 10-20 pounds of fluid in a matter of hours.
Know your Preakness Stakes horses: 9-Imagination (Post 8)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Frankie Dettori
Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Racing, Stonestreet Stables, Dianne Bashor, Bat Masterson, Waves Edge Capital, Catherine Donovan and Tom Ryan
Breeder: Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds
Purchase price: $1,050,000
Lifetime record: 6-2-4-0
Record on wet surface: 0-0-0-0
Winnings: $406,800
Top Beyer figure: 96
Last race: Second in Santa Anita Derby
Morning line: 3-1
Comment: He started the week as the “other Baffert,” a wagering strategy to bet Baffert’s second-favored horse, but that changed on Wednesday when Muth scratched out of the race because of a fever. There is a lot to like about this horse. Last year, Baffert’s National Treasure went gate to wire to win the Preakness. This is the same type of horse who can get the lead and take it all the way over 1 3/16 miles. Baffert has won the Preakness eight times, a record. He also has the legendary Frankie Dettori as the jockey. This will be his first Preakness trip. As a negative, this is the horse’s first race outside of California. Imagination has been the favorite in five of his six races.
Derby winner Mystik Dan holds steady atop latest betting odds
BALTIMORE — For the first time today, the odds remained unchanged from the previous hour. You’ve still got Mystik Dan at 3-1, Catching Freedom at 7-2 and Tuscan Goal and Imagination at 4-1.
It has been the strongest betting hour as $5.502 million in the win pool.
If you play trifectas, the lowest price is 5-3-9 and 5-9-3, both paying $44.30.
Here are the odds with three hours to go to the Preakness post time:
1-Mugatu 18-1
2. Uncle Heavy 7-1
3. Catching Freedom 7-2
4. Muth (scratched)
5. Mystik Dan 3-1
6. Seize the Grey 8-1
7. Just Steel 9-1
8. Tuscan Gold 4-1
9. Imagination 4-1
Know your Preakness Stakes horses: 8-Tuscan Gold (Post 7)
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Owner: William H. Lawrence, Walmac Farm and Stonestreet Stables
Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings
Purchase price: $600,000
Lifetime record: 3-1-0-1
Record on wet surface: 0-0-0-0
Winnings: $14,100
Top Beyer figure: 95
Last race: Third in the Louisiana Derby
Morning line: 9-2
Comment: This is a very intriguing horse. He’s only run three times and is trained by Chad Brown, who doesn’t ship horses just for fun. Brown has won two of his six Preakness appearances, in 2017 with Cloud Computing and in 2022 with Early Voting. He was second last year with Blazing Sevens. That’s a pretty good showing at Pimlico. He hasn’t run since March 23 when he was third in the Louisiana Derby. He has the right style to win this race and it appears that the connections have targeted the Preakness for the horse. Brown is known as a turf trainer, but he’s also proven he can win on the dirt.
What time will the 2024 Preakness Stakes start? What TV channel is the race on?
BALTIMORE — Trying to plan your Saturday? Want to watch the Preakness? Need some help?
Here’s what you need to know. The official start time of the second leg of the triple crown has been a bit of a moving target. Four different times have been floated but all within 15 minutes of each other. The reality is that NBC will ultimately decide when the race starts.
We’re going to go with gates opening at 4:01 p.m. if you are in Los Angeles.
Know your Preakness Stakes horses: 7-Just Steel (Post 6)
Trainer: Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Owner: BC Stables and Henry Schmueckle
Breeder: Summerhill Farm
Purchase price: $500,000
Lifetime record: 12-2-4-1
Record on wet surface: 2-0-1-1
Winnings: $724,545
Top Beyer figure: 95
Last race: Seventeenth in the Kentucky Derby
Morning line: 12-1
Comment: This horse isn’t as bad as his 17th place finish in the Kentucky Derby. Sometimes when a horse is clearly beaten, the jockey just slows him down. With that said, he gets a new jockey for this race with Joel Rosario replacing Keith Asmussen. Rosario was the rider the last time this colt won on Nov. 25 at Churchill Downs. He was second to Muth in the Arkansas Derby and beat Mystik Dan, who was third. But Mystik Dan has beaten him twice, in the Kentucky Derby and the Southwest Stakes. If the pace isn’t too fast, he could certainly hit the board.
Betting odds remain tight four hours before Preakness Stakes
BALTIMORE — Things remain tight as betting continues to crawl along with about $700,000 bet each hour. Tuscan Gold was the only horse to move going from 7-2 to 4-1. Mystik Dan remains the favorite at 3-1 with Catching Freedom at 7-2. Tuscan Gold has more money bet on him than Imagination but both are at 4-1.
The most popular exacta combination is, as expected, Mystik Dan over Catching Freedom and it pays $26.60.
Here are the odds with four hours to go to the Preakness post time:
1-Mugatu 18-1
2. Uncle Heavy 7-1
3. Catching Freedom 7-2
4. Muth (scratched)
5. Mystik Dan 3-1
6. Seize the Grey 8-1
7. Just Steel 9-1
8. Tuscan Gold 4-1
9. Imagination 4-1
Black-Eyed Susan betting hinted there would be no Preakness favorite
BALTIMORE — The most reliable way to determine how betting on a race will go is to see how the race you are interested in is connected in a bet to a race that has been run earlier. Usually these are daily doubles or pick threes or pick fours. It really takes the temperature of where bettors are thinking about a race.
One such bet is the two-day Black-Eyed Susan/Preakness double. Gun Song (No. 5) won the Black-Eyed Susan on Friday. The prices for the second half of the double are called “will pays,” meaning what the bet “will pay” if the horse on the other end of the double wins.
What was learned for the Preakness is there is no clear favorite. In fact, bettors seem to favor Tuscan Gold, followed by Catching Freedom, Imagination and Mystik Fan. But it is so close $5.20 separating the four horses.
There was $970,357 wagered in this bet. Here are the will pays for a $2 bet on the two-day double.
1-Mugatu $708.40
2-Uncle Heavy $204.60
3-Catching Freedom $30.60
4-Muth (scratched)
5-Mystic Dan $35.20
6-Seize the Grey $114.40
7-Just Steel $98.00
8-Tuscan Gold $30.00
9-Imagination $34.20
Know your Preakness Stakes horses: 5-Mystik Dan (Post 4)
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Jockey: Brian Hernandez, Jr.
Owner: Lance Gasaway, 4 G Racing, Daniel Hamby III and Valley View Farm
Breeder: Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby and 4 G Racing
Purchase price: Homebred
Lifetime record: 7-3-1-1
Record on wet surface: 1-1-0-0
Winnings: $3,741,360
Top Beyer figure: 101
Last race: Won the Kentucky Derby
Morning line: 8-5
Comment: Despite winning the Kentucky Derby, he was not the favorite after the draw. That distinction went to Muth, but all that changed when Muth spiked a fever on Wednesday and was scratched. Obviously, Mystik Dan is the only horse who can win the Triple Crown and his chance increased a lot with no Muth. He got a perfect trip in the Kentucky Derby and it’s unlikely he can set off the pace and expect to get a rail ride past a fading frontrunner. The race is one-sixteenth of a mile shorter and 12 fewer horses. Horses shouldn’t get in traffic trouble. One big plus, if the weather is bad, is his eight-length win in the Southwest over a muddy track. Trainer Kenny McPeek has won this race once in seven tries, that being with the filly Swiss Skydiver in 2020 when the race was run in October because of COVID.
New syndicate model of horse racing ownership is proving to be a winner
BALTIMORE — When searching around for a reason to buy a racehorse, you’re pretty much guaranteed to see the word “risky” more frequently than popcorn at a movie theater, which, by the way, is also not a great investment these days.
They are expensive to buy, expensive to maintain and your chance of turning a profit is not very good. Financial advisors view it as a “lifestyle investment,” in other words, paying for an experience.
But suppose there was a magical formula out there, one that only has to work a few times and the financial pain is turned into financial profit.
On Saturday, Imagination will go off as the second or third favorite in the $2-million Preakness Stakes, the second leg of racing’s Triple Crown. He was bought for $1.050 million by a syndicate of nine people or entities, almost the same group that won last year’s Preakness with National Treasure. Imagination has won $406,800, so a victory on Saturday would bring another $1.2 million.
Tom Ryan is the managing partner of SF Bloodstock, an arm of SF Racing, which is owned by George Soros. He’s the one in charge of coming up with the investors and a starting list of horses to consider buying, then circulates the notes for input and then turns it over to trainer Bob Baffert for final approval and buying the horses.
Know your Preakness Stakes horses: 6-Seize the Grey (Post 5)
Trainer: Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Jaime Torres
Owner: MyRacehorse
Breeder: Jamm LTD
Purchase price: $300,000
Lifetime record: 9-3-0-3
Record on wet surface: 2-1-0-1
Winnings: $619,938
Top Beyer figure: 88
Last race: Won the Pat Day Mile
Morning line: 12-1
Comment: It’s hard to build a case for this horse. He’s never gone this far, so his distance will be questioned. He was the surprise winner of the Pat Day Mile two weeks ago at Churchill Downs. He’s one of two Wayne Lukas horses in the race and also the one less likely to win. Lukas has won the Preakness six times. The jockey is also a little inexperienced having just come off his apprentice status. His win in the Pat Day was his first ever Grade 2 victory. The horse is owned by MyRacehorse, which sells micro-shares to a lot of people, all so they can claim they are a horse owner. This does bring some problems as they have to have a lottery among the owners to see who gets in the owner’s box and who would get in the winner’s circle. The second scenario shouldn’t be a problem.
Know your Preakness Stakes horses: 3-Catching Freedom (Post 3)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Owner: Albaugh Family Stables
Breeder: WinStar Farm
Purchase price: $575,000
Lifetime record: 6-3-0-1
Record on wet surface: 1-0-0-1
Winnings: $1,127,350
Top Beyer figure: 97
Last race: Fourth in the Kentucky Derby
Morning line: 7-2
Comment: This is a horse to pay some attention to. He is a deep closer going from 15th to fourth in the Kentucky Derby. Because of the three-horse blanket finish, he was only 1 ¾ lengths behind winner Mystik Dan. But he will need to be a little closer when he makes his move, especially with a field of only eight. He does seem to be an every-other-race kind of horse, winning in his first, third and fifth races. The Preakness will be his seventh. There is a question of how much gas is left in the tank after his Derby run but he’s got one of the best jockeys in Flavien Prat, who has only been in this race once, a win in 2021 aboard Rombauer.
Four horses jockey for favorite status in latest betting odds
BALTIMORE — At the top of the oddsboard there remains a blanket over the first four horses. All are between 3-1 and 4-1. In the last hour, the gap between Catching Freedom and Tuscan Gold has closed with both being listed at 7-2. Mystik Dan is favorite at 3-1 and Imagination is fourth at 4-1.
The longest shot in the field is Mugutu, named after the Will Farrell character in Zoolander. But even he is only 18-1, down from 19-1 and hour ago.
So far, $3.722 million has been bet in the win pool. This is much lower than what is bet on the Kentucky Derby. The fewer the number of horses in a race generally reduces the betting pool because gamblers like to search to bargains.
Here are the odds with five hours to go to the Preakness post time:
1-Mugatu 18-1
2. Uncle Heavy 7-1
3. Catching Freedom 7-2
4. Muth (scratched)
5. Mystik Dan 3-1
6. Seize the Grey 8-1
7. Just Steel 9-1
8. Tuscan Gold 7-2
9. Imagination 4-1
Muth scratches out of Preakness
A Triple Crown became much more of a possibility Wednesday when Preakness Stakes favorite Muth was scratched from Saturday’s race, leaving Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan as the favorite.
The Santa Anita-based 3-year-old had a long travel day on Tuesday, along with stablemates Imagination and Mirahmadi, starting with a delayed departure from LAX to Newark Airport, and from there a long van ride in heavy traffic down to Pimlico Race Course.
The horses arrived late Tuesday night.
Know your Preakness Stakes horses: 2-Uncle Heavy (Post 2)
Trainer: Butch Reid
Jockey: Irad Ortz, Jr.
Owner: Michal Milam and L.C. Racing
Breeder: Barbara Reid
Purchase price: Homebred
Lifetime record: 5-3-0-0
Record on wet surface: 2-2-0-0
Winnings: $323,580
Top Beyer figure: 84
Last race: Fifth in the Wood Memorial
Morning line: 20-1
Comment: There are a couple of factors that could weigh in this colt’s favor. The weather forecast is pretty wet for Saturday and he is two for two on off tracks. One of them was a win in the Grade 3 Withers at Aqueduct. The other is a major upgrade in jockeys to Irad Ortiz, Jr. The hall of famer has never won the Preakness, losing all five starts. Last year, he was second behind Blazing Sevens. He will be coming off the pace. This will be Butch Reid’s first Preakness start. Uncle Heavy ran an unimpressive fifth in the Wood Memorial.
Why Mystik Dan’s Triple Crown chances are better than you might expect
BALTIMORE — The week started with the highly unusual situation where the winner of the Kentucky Derby was not the favorite to win the Preakness Stakes, the second leg of horse racing’s Triple Crown.
Mystik Dan won the 150th running of the race two weeks ago by a nose and that came after a near perfect trip along the rail. Can’t happen like that again, can it?
But then things started to change when the favorite, Muth, the horse who beat Mystik Dan in the Arkansas Derby, scratched out of the race because of a fever. Fate or fortune?
Then the weather forecast started to indicate a wet Saturday and Mystik Dan’s most impressive win was an eight-length victory in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn over a muddy track. A sign from the heavens?
Swall finishes second in Skipat Stakes
BALTIMORE — Swall, a horse that was running at Golden Gate Fields at the end of last year, put forth a good effort but finished second in the first stakes race of the day at Pimlico, the $100,000 Skipat Stakes.
Swall is trained by Santa Anita-based Phil D’Amato and was ridden by Flavien Prat. The horse is owned by Little Red Feather Racing.
The horse was formerly trained by Andy Mathis when he raced at Golden Gate, a track that will run its final race in about three weeks. She was moved to the barn of D’Amato near the end of the year and D’Amato put the 4-year-old filly with his string of horses in Kentucky. She ran twice at Turfway Park and once at Keeneland.
Even though Swall was listed at 10-1 on the morning line, she was bet down to about 4-1.
The race, which was for fillies and mares 3-years-old and up going six furlongs, was won by Apple Picker who won by 1 ¾ lengths and paid $8.40 to win.
Know your Preakness Stakes horses: 1-Mugatu (Post 1)
Trainer: Jeff Engler
Jockey: Joe Bravo
Owner: Average Joe Racing and Dan Wells
Breeder: JSM Equine LLC
Purchase price: $14,000
Lifetime record: 12-1-1-3
Record on wet surface: 0-0-0-0
Winnings: $80,570
Last race: Fifth in the Blue Grass Stakes
Top Beyer figure: 87
Morning line: 20-1
Comment: This horse is probably the least likely to win the race. He will go off at much higher odds than 20-1. Joe Talamo has been riding him, but Talamo is heading back to California for a little while and isn’t coming back to ride in the Preakness. Joe Bravo picks up the mount. He guided this horse to his only win on the synthetic at Gulfstream Park. The horse was bought for $14,000, so the owners are seemingly just enjoying the ride. Along with Just Steel, he has the most number of starts with 12. He has never raced on the slop and that’s the likely surface Saturday.
Mystik Dan holds narrow lead in latest betting odds
BALTIMORE — At the Kentucky Derby, the oddsboard was rarely interesting as Fierceness was the favorite from the start and the rest of the field stayed pretty much the same throughout the day. That will not be the case at the Preakness.
When the “will pays” for the Black-Eyed Susan/Preakness double came out, Tuscan Gold was the favorite on that bet, followed by Catching Freedom, Imagination and Mystik Dan.
Well, you can pretty much throw a blanket over all those as the money started to roll in on Saturday. Mystik Dan has the most money bet on, but not far behind is Catching Freedom. Both are 3-1. Tuscan Gold is at 7-2 and Imagination at 4-1.
Here are the odds with six hours to go to the Preakness post time:
1-Mugatu 19-1
2. Uncle Heavy 7-1
3. Catching Freedom 3-1
4. Muth (scratched)
5. Mystik Dan 3-1
6. Seize the Grey 8-1
7. Just Steel 9-1
8. Tuscan Gold 7-2
9. Imagination 4-1
Preakness Stakes storylines: Will Mystik Dan be the next Triple Crown winner?
Now that it’s confirmed that Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan is going to run in Saturday’s Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, the talk of a possible Triple Crown can start. Actually, it’s more of a whisper than talk.
Mystik Dan barely held on by a nose while winning the Kentucky Derby. And he had the perfect trip. Now he’ll be facing the horse that beat him in the Arkansas Derby. And he’s running on only two weeks’ rest.
Even with all those negatives, there is still a case to be made that a Triple Crown is within reach of Mystik Dan. First, the Preakness Stakes race is a sixteenth-of-a-mile shorter than the Kentucky Derby. As for the 1 1/2-mile Belmont Stakes, it’s neither 1 ½ miles nor at Belmont. Because of the construction at Belmont, the signature race is being moved to Saratoga, N.Y., and will be run at 1 ¼ miles. Race officials didn’t want to start the race on a turn so they shortened it. We know Mystik Dan can handle 1 ¼ miles, even if barely.
There is already discussion that this is not a legitimate Triple Crown, especially if two of the races are at the same distance and some of the best horses were kept out of the Kentucky Derby because of Churchill Downs’ ban on trainer Bob Baffert. In 2020, because of COVID, the Belmont was run first at 1 1/8 miles, the Kentucky Derby second in September, followed by the Preakness Stakes about a month later.
Rain not expected during Preakness Stakes race
BALTIMORE — It appears that the volume of rain expected at Pimlico Race Course for the Preakness Stakes was less than expected with a break in the rain in mid-afternoon. The rain started about 5:30 a.m. local time and was heavy on occasion and stopped shortly before the first post of 10:30 a.m. More rain is expected about 3 p.m. but should stop before the start of the Preakness.
But the real question is the condition of the track. The first race was taken off the turf and run over a dirt surface that was labeled “good” by the track but “muddy” by Equibase. Visually there were streaks of standing water, which makes the Equibase assessment more accurate. Tracks are known for rating a surface at an elevated condition because bettors prefer fast tracks. Pimlico and Equibase do not have to agree on a condition.
A wet track would be a plus for Mystik Dan, who is trying for the second leg of the Triple Crown after winning the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago.
The track will dry out some but not fully because of the cloud cover. The intensity of the afternoon rain will likely determine the track condition for the Preakness.
According to the Weather Channel, at posttime the chance of rain is 24% with a temperature of 66 degrees.
Preakness provides Equibase stats to help fans pick a Preakness winner
BALTIMORE — Every race is difficult to handicap, even though there are only eight horses. The Preakness official program used some Equibase statistics to try to help people pick a winner.
Because betting on horses is a mutuel pool, meaning the payouts are based on a ratio of the money bet, the track makes no more or less money regardless of who wins the race. In fact, track owners want as many people to win as possible because if people have money in their pocket, they are more likely to bet more on subsequent races.
So, here are a few categories and how Equibase rates the top picks:
Wins at 1 3/16 miles
Catching Freedom (1-1) 100%
Last 3 finishes
Mystic Dan, 1, 3, 1
Imagination, 2-1-2
Uncle Heavy, 5-1-1
Catching Freedom, 5-1-3
Tuscon Gold, 3-1-4
Lifetime wins
Uncle Heavy 3-5 (60%)
Catching Freedom 3-6 (50%)
Mystik Dan 3-7 (43%)
Seize the Grey 3-9 (33%)
Imagination 2-6 (33%)
In the money (first, second or third)
Imagination 6-6 (100%)
Mystik Dan 5-7 (71%)
Seize the Grey 6-9 (67%)
Catching Freedom 4-6 (67%)
Tuscan Gold 2-3 (67%)
Class Ranking
Mystik Dan 102
Catching Freedom 99
Imagination 98
Just Steel 88
Tuscan Gold 87
Average Last 3 Equibase Speed
Mystik Dan 108
Imagination 101
Catching Freedom 100
Seize the Grey 92
Mugatu 92
Best Overall
Imagination
Mystik Dan
Catching Freedom
Uncle Heavy
Seize the Grey