Bob Baffert makes Kentucky Derby history with Medina Spirit win
Just when you think he doesn’t have a chance, just when you think there are much better horses, Bob Baffert figures out a way to win the Kentucky Derby.
Baffert became the all-time winningest Kentucky Derby trainer when Medina Spirit gave him his seventh victory in the most famous of all horse races. The 3-year-colt went to front early and just stayed there over the course of 1 ¼ miles.
“Johnny [Velazquez] had him in a perfect spot and if you have him on the lead, he’ll fight,” Baffert said. “[When] those horses came to him … I can’t believe he won this race. It was all him. That little horse, it was all guts.”
The winning margin was a half a length.
Medina Spirit paid $26.20, $12.00 and $7.60. Mandaloun finished second and Hot Rod Charlie was third. The favorite, Essential Quality, was fourth followed by O Besos, Midnight Bourbon, Keepmeinmind, Helium, Known Agenda, Highly Motivated, Sainthood, Like The King, Bourbonic, Hidden Stash, Strong, Super Stock, Rock Your World, Dynamic One, and Soup And Sandwich.
Final odds for the Kentucky Derby: Rock Your World goes down to 9-2
As it turned out, the more than $2 million that Jack “Mattress Mack” McIngvale bet on Essential Quality really didn’t change the odds board much. The horse remained at 5-2 with less than an hour before the race.
Rock Your World did tick down to 9-2 from 5-1 and Hot Rod Charlie stayed at 5-1. It’s tough to move odds when there is around $31 million in the betting pool.
Here are the odds as of 6:15 p.m. EDT in Louisville.
1. Known Agenda 11-1
2. Like The King 46-1
3. Brooklyn Strong 40-1
4. Keepmeinmind 45-1
5. Sainthood 39-1
6. O Besos 38-1
7. Mandaloun 28-1
8. Medina Spirit 12-1
9. Hot Rod Charlie 5-1
10. Midnight Bourbon 12-1
11. Dynamic One 42-1
12. Helium 38-1
13. Hidden Stash 35-1
14. Essential Quality 5-2
15. Rock Your World 9-2
16. King Fury SCRATCHED
17. Highly Motivated 11-1
18. Super Stock 33-1
19. Soup and Sandwich 24-1
20. Bourbonic 28-1
Prediction: Rock Your World will win Kentucky Derby ahead of Known Agenda
The words “for entertainment purposes only” never apply more than when evaluating your Times horse racing writer’s picks for not just the Kentucky Derby, but any race.
So, here’s a stab at nothing as I make make prediction for the top four finishers:
1. Rock Your World (15): His performance in the Santa Anita Derby was stronger than could have been expected but it was only his third race and first on dirt. He’s trained well and is conditioned by John Sadler, who has never won this race. The breeder was Hall of Fame trainer Ron McAnally, who also never won this race. Isn’t it about time these two giants are rewarded?
2. Known Agenda (1): He really wasn’t on anyone’s radar until he won the Florida Derby by 2¾ lengths. His previous race was an 11-length win in an allowance. He’s moved forward his last couple races. The No. 1 post position isn’t as bad as it used to be since Churchill built a special 20-stall starting gate and Irad Ortiz is about as good a jockey as there is.
3. Essential Quality (14): This colt will go off as the favorite and like Rock Your World is undefeated. He’s only run twice since winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November, winning the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn and the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.
4. Highly Motivated (17): He has finished second and third in his last two races and almost beat Essential Quality in the Blue Grass, losing by a nose. Combination of trainer Chad Brown and jockey Javier Castellano means this horse can’t be ignored.
Wish I could put in top four: Hot Rod Charlie (9) and Medina Spirit (8).
Best longshot: O Besos (6)
John Sadler’s savvy move pays off with victory in Grade 1 $500,000 Churchill Downs
John Sadler is one trainer who likes to keep his horses in California. When Accelerate won the Breeders’ Cup Classic in his 22nd race, it was only the second time he had raced outside the state.
On Saturday, he made the right move by shipping Flagstaff to Louisville as the 7-year-old gelding won the Grade 1 $500,000 Churchill Downs. The winning margin was a head.
It was pretty much a blanket finish but Flagstaff, with Luis Saez aboard, got his head out front. Flagstaff paid $11.80 to win.
“I’m thrilled,” Sadler said. “He’s a real hard knocker, he always runs his race. He knocked it out today.”
Saez elaborated a bit more.
“Getting settled off the pace was the key,” Saez said. “They were going pretty fast up front. I tried to save ground into the turn and when there was a moment to go out so I had that good spot he came for me. … When I saw everybody coming past me, I thought it was over but he never gave up and finally he gave me the last little bit and we got there. John told me to ride him with confidence and that he likes to fight and we broke and then you saw that at the end.”
Sadler‘s big opportunity will come in the Kentucky Derby when Rock Your World goes to post. Both Rock Your World and Flagstaff are partly owned by Hronis Brothers Racing.
Kentucky Derby 2021 horses: Bourbonic
Bourbonic wins the 2021 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.
Post 20: Bourbonic
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Kendrick Carmouche
Owners: Calumet Farm (Brad Kelly)
Purchase price: Homebred
Morning line: 30-1
Jon White’s analysis: Last early, Bourbonic got up to win the Wood Memorial by a head. The Kentucky-bred colt returned $146.50 for each $2 win wager. It was the highest win mutuel in the 96-year history of the Wood, breaking the record of $129.50 Manassa Mauler paid in 1959. Can Bourbonic win again Saturday? It appears unlikely, though he is three for four since having blinkers added. Bourbonic’s sire, Bernardini, won the 2006 Preakness Stakes. Bourbonic is a grandson of Afleet Alex, who won the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes in 2005.
White’s adjusted ranking: 16th
Kentucky Derby 2021 horses: Rock Your World
Post 15: Rock Your World
Trainer: John Sadler
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Owner: Hronis Racing (Kosta Hronis), David Michael Talla
Purchase price: $650,000
Morning line: 5-1
Jon White’s analysis: Rock Your World is three for three and goes into the Kentucky Derby off a Santa Anita Derby victory in his first start on dirt. Justify likewise was three for three going into the Kentucky Derby after winning the Santa Anita Derby. Justify then swept the Triple Crown. Can Rock Your World win Saturday when going farther than 1 1/8 miles for the first time? His sire, Candy Ride, won Del Mar’s 1 1/4-mile Pacific Classic on dirt in 2003 while setting a track record that still stands. Rock Your World looked terrific in a recent five-furlong workout at Santa Anita. Rock Your World and Soup and Sandwich are the entrants seeking to join Apollo in 1882 and Justify in 2018 as the only Kentucky Derby winners to have not started at 2.
White’s ranking: Second
Kentucky Derby 2021 horses: Soup and Sandwich
Post 19: Soup and Sandwich
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Owners: Live Oak Plantation (Charlotte C. Weber)
Purchase price: Homebred
Morning line: 30-1
Jon White’s analysis: Soup and Sandwich appears to be very talented, but he’s also light in experience inasmuch as he’s made only three career starts to date. The Florida-bred Into Mischief colt ran second in the Florida Derby, which was his stakes debut. Could Soup and Sandwich possibly be in the thick of it all the way to the end Saturday? Yes, it’s possible. On the other hand, it will not be surprising if he finishes way back.
White’s adjusted ranking: 14th
Latest Kentucky Derby odds: Hot Rod Charlie drops back down to 5-1
There were two four-point moves in the last hour, both among horses that are longshots.
Like the King (2) went from 48-1 to 44-1 and Helium (12) went from 39-1 to 35-1. Other than that, things stayed pretty much the same.
Hot Rod Charlie (9) dropped back down to 5-1 as Rock Your World (15) stayed at 5-1 and Essential Quality (14) remained at 5-2.
Bettors have placed $21.479 million on the winner of the Kentucky Derby. Everyone wants a souvenir.
Here are the odds as of 5:15 p.m. EDT in Louisville, Ky.:
1. Known Agenda 11-1
2. Like the King 44-1
3. Brooklyn Strong 39-1
4. Keepmeinmind 43-1
5. Sainthood 37-1
6. O Besos 37-1
7. Mandaloun 28-1
8. Medina Spirit 12-1
9. Hot Rod Charlie 5-1
10. Midnight Bourbon 12-1
11. Dynamic One 40-1
12. Helium 35-1
13. Hidden Stash 33-1
14. Essential Quality 5-2
15. Rock Your World 5-1
16. King Fury SCRATCHED
17. Highly Motivated 11-1
18. Super Stock 31-1
19. Soup and Sandwich 24-1
20. Bourbonic 28-1
Kentucky Derby 2021 horses: Super Stock
Post 18: Super Stock
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
Owners: Erv Woolsey, Keith Asmussen
Purchase price: $70,000
Morning line: 10-1
Jon White’s analysis: Super Stock capitalized on what Santana accurately described as “a beautiful trip” to win the Arkansas Derby going away in a 12-1 upset. Super Stock “keeps getting better and better,” Asmussen said after the Arkansas Derby. Super Stock’s sire, Dialed In, ran eighth in the 2011 Kentucky Derby. Super Stock, bred in Kentucky, is a grandson of Closing Argument, who finished second at odds of 71-1 in the 2005 Kentucky Derby.
White’s ranking: Ninth
Kentucky Derby 2021 horses: Highly Motivated
Post 17: Highly Motivated
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Owner: Klaravich Stable (Seth Klaman)
Purchase price: $240,000
Morning line: 10-1
Jon White’s analysis: Highly Motivated, who as mentioned above is by Into Mischief, finished a close second to give big favorite Essential Quality a real scare in the Blue Grass Stakes. Is the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby farther than Highly Motivated would prefer to go? Perhaps. But keep in mind many doubted a son of Bold Ruler would ever have sufficient stamina to win the Kentucky Derby until Secretariat came along and did it in 1973. Similarly, many were skeptical that a son of Into Mischief would ever possess enough late oomph to win the Kentucky Derby until Authentic came along and did it last year. Highly Motivated drew post 17. No horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby from post 17.
White’s ranking: Seventh
Photos: Stunning and beautiful hats make a Kentucky Derby comeback
Horses are the stars of the show at the Kentucky Derby, but the number of vibrant and fanciful hats on display at Churchill Downs on Saturday might be the best way to measure how close the iconic race is to returning to normal.
The general public wasn’t allowed to attend the 2020 Kentucky Derby, which was delayed four months because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Articulate hats weren’t a complete no-show during the race in September — some of the VIP guests of horse owners who were allowed through the gates at Churchill Downs kept the tradition alive. Still, it paled in comparison to the often colorful and bombastic displays that speckle the well-dressed crowds during race day.
With a loosening of restrictions allowing fans to attend the 147th running of the Kentucky Derby, hats are making a comeback.
Here are some of the best hats at the Kentucky Derby on Saturday:
Kentucky Derby 2021 horses: Essential Quality
Post 14: Essential Quality
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Luis Saez
Owner: Godolphin (Mohammed Al Maktoum et al.)
Purchase price: Homebred
Morning line: 2-1
Jon White’s analysis: Essential Quality is undefeated in five career starts. A huge asset is he’s not pace dependent. He’s been victorious whether the pace was fast, moderate or slow. Though Essential Quality won the Blue Grass by only a neck, the Kentucky-bred Tapit colt did travel 29 feet farther than runner-up Highly Motivated, according to Trakus. Can Essential Quality follow a Blue Grass victory with a win in the Run for the Roses, something that has not been done since Strike the Gold did it 30 years ago? The belief here is that he can.
White’s ranking: First
Latest Kentucky Derby odds: $16.6 million wagered in the win pool
Hot Rod Charlie returned to his spot as third favorite, sliding back to 6-1, while Rock Your World stayed at 5-1. Essential Quality is still the 5-2 favorite.
This is pretty much about where things will stand until Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale places his monster wager. There has been $16.6 million wagered in the win pool since betting opened. The pace of wagering has escalated, with about $3 million an hour being bet as post time approaches, up from $2 million.
The time interval between races is also longer allowing for more wagering time.
Here are the odds as of 4:15 p.m. EDT in Louisville.
1. Known Agenda 11-1
2. Like the King 48-1
3. Brooklyn Strong 40-1
4. Keepmeinmind 45-1
5. Sainthood 39-1
6. O Besos 39-1
7. Mandaloun 28-1
8. Medina Spirit 12-1
9. Hot Rod Charlie 6-1
10. Midnight Bourbon 13-1
11. Dynamic One 39-1
12. Helium 39-1
13. Hidden Stash 33-1
14. Essential Quality 5-2
15. Rock Your World 5-1
16. King Fury SCRATCHED
17. Highly Motivated 11-1
18. Super Stock 32-1
19. Soup and Sandwich 24-1
20. Bourbonic 28-1
Flavien Prat wins a trio of races at Churchill Downs. Good omen for Hot Rod Charlie win?
Flavien Prat, Santa Anita’s leading rider, is showing he can ride very well outside the confines of Southern California. But everyone already knew that.
He won three major stakes on Saturday on Kentucky Derby day by winning the Grade 2 $500,000 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile aboard Blowout for trainer Chad Brown. He rode the 5-year-old mare to a beaten-by-a-nose second in the Grade 1 Matriarch at Del Mar in his only other ride aboard the horse. She paid $5.80 to win.
Then, three races later, he weaved his way through traffic to win the Grade 2 $500,000 American Turf for 3-year-olds aboard Du Jour for Bob Baffert. Du Jour, who Prat rode to wins in his last two races, a maiden special weight and an allowance, paid $13.20 to win.
Finally, he was in a dead heat to win aboard Domestic Spending, also for Brown, in the Grade 2 $1 million Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic. The photo couldn’t split Domestic Spending and Colonel Lam. Domestic Spending paid $5.20 to win.
Prat will be the jockey for Hot Rod Charlie in the Kentucky Derby. Prat took over the mount when Joel Rosario elected to ride Rock Your World. Prat rode Hot Rod Charlie to a fifth-place finish in his third maiden race.
Kentucky Derby 2021 horses: Helium
Post 12: Helium
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Owner: D.J. Stable (Leonard Green)
Purchase price: $55,000
Morning line: 50-1
Jon White’s analysis: How good is Helium? Who knows? Helium is going into the Kentucky Derby undefeated, like Essential Quality and Rock Your World. Helium is three for three. In his two 2020 starts, the Kentucky-bred Ironicus colt won a maiden race and the Display Stakes on Woodbine’s synthetic surface. Helium took the Tampa Bay Derby in his only 2021 race to date while making his first start on dirt. Helium is a grandson of Thunder Gulch, who won the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes in 1995.
White’s ranking: 13th
From the archives: In a neglected cemetery lie black jockeys who helped create the Kentucky Derby
The headstones — cracked, chipped, crumbled — rise sporadically across eight acres of dried grass. Mold and wind have eaten away at the slabs of stone, but if you kneel close enough, maybe wipe a palm across the faded inscriptions, family names emerge.
Lewis
Perkins
Murphy
Tucked off a quiet two-lane road lined by towering oak trees in Lexington, you’ll find African Cemetery No. 2, the burial site of many of Kentucky’s first — yet often least remembered — jockeys and horse trainers.
Every May, racing fans from around the world flock to Churchill Downs in Louisville, eager to watch thoroughbreds — many of them reared in the rolling hills nearby — tear around the track. The horse racing industry brings billions of dollars and infinite pride to the Bluegrass State each year. This Saturday will mark the 145th running of the Kentucky Derby.
But as with the cemetery that houses the remains of some of the sport’s pioneers, little attention is paid to the critical role black equestrians played in forming the industry in the late 1800s. In the years after the Civil War, most horse trainers and grooms were black men — so, too, were jockeys. Of the first 28 winning jockeys of the Derby, 15 were African American.
Kentucky Derby 2021 horses: Dynamic One
Post 11: Dynamic One
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Owners: Repole Stable (Mike Repole), Phipps Stable (Daisy Phipps Pulito), St. Elias Stable (Vincent Viola)
Purchase price: $725,000
Morning line: 20-1
Jon White’s analysis: Dynamic One probably was best when he narrowly lost the Wood Memorial at odds of 15-1. He finished second to Bourbonic, who pulled off a 72-1 upset. Dynamic One seems to have trained well up to the Kentucky Derby. His sire, Union Rags, won the 2012 Belmont Stakes.
White’s ranking: 12th
Latest Kentucky Derby odds: Hot Rod Charlie closing in on Rock Your World
Hot Rod Charlie closed in on Rock Your World for second-favorite status with under four hours till post time.
Both horses are 5-1 but Rock Your World has drawn $1.731 million in bets compared to Hot Rod Charlie’s $1.555.
Essential Quality remained the favorite, holding steady at 5-2, but that is before the expected cash infusion by Jim “Mattress Mac” McIngvale. He has already bet $500,000 on the colt but is expected to put down much more during a staged event on NBC at 2:45 p.m. PDT. $13.1 million has been bet on horses to win, so far.
Here are the odds as of 3:15 p.m. EDT in Louisville.
1. Known Agenda 11-1
2. Like the King 49-1
3. Brooklyn Strong 39-1
4. Keepmeinmind 44-1
5. Sainthood 38-1
6. O Besos 38-1
7. Mandaloun 27-1
8. Medina Spirit 12-1
9. Hot Rod Charlie 5-1
10. Midnight Bourbon 13-1
11. Dynamic One 39-1
12. Helium 39-1
13. Hidden Stash 33-1
14. Essential Quality 5-2
15. Rock Your World 5-1
16. King Fury SCRATCHED
17. Highly Motivated 11-1
18. Super Stock 32-1
19. Soup and Sandwich 24-1
20. Bourbonic 28-1
Bob Baffert wins again at Churchill Downs — and breaks the Grade 1 record
Trainer Bob Baffert picked up his record 220th Grade 1 stakes win on Saturday when his super filly Gamine won the $500,000 Derby City Distaff at Churchill Downs. It was Gamine’s sixth win in seven starts.
It wasn’t a romp like when she won the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint at Keeneland last year by 6¼ lengths but it was a comfortable 1½-length victory over a game Sconsin.
Gamine broke on top in the seven-furlong race and was comfortably in front until the stretch when Sconsin made a run at her but could never get there. Gamine paid $2.40, $2.20 and $2.10. Sconsin was second followed by Estilo Talentoso, Bell’s the One, Hibiscus Punch and Unique Factor.
“I didn’t know I was that close to the record until a month ago,” Baffert said. “To do it here on this big day is very special. I’m just happy for Gamine. She got the job done.
“I told Johnny [Velazquez] that this was the first time she’s run before a crowd. She was looking around. So many things can go wrong, but once I saw her down the backside, I knew we were in the clear.”
Going into the race, Baffert was tied with Wayne Lukas at 219 Grade 1 wins since stakes races started to receive numerical grades.
It was the sixth straight time that Velazquez has ridden the 4-year-old filly.
“She didn’t get to the break I hoped for, but she bounced back really quickly and ran really easy in the early going,” Valazquez said. “She showed what a champion she was and I was very proud of my filly.”
Kentucky Derby 2021 horses: Midnight Bourbon
Post 10: Midnight Bourbon
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Mike Smith
Owners: Winchell Thoroughbreds (Ron Winchell)
Purchase price: $525,000
Morning line: 20-1
Jon White’s analysis: Midnight Bourbon has not finished worse than third in seven lifetime starts. His biggest victory so far came in the Lecomte Stakes in January. Most recently, the Kentucky-bred colt ran second in the Louisiana Derby. How will Midnight Bourbon do Saturday when racing 1 1/4 miles, farther than ever before? His sire, Tiznow, won the 1 1/4-mile Breeders’ Cup Classic in 2000 and 2001. Smith is a two-time Kentucky Derby winning jockey (Giacomo in 2005 and Justify in 2018).
White’s ranking: Eighth
Kentucky Derby 2021 horses: Hot Rod Charlie
Post 9: Hot Rod Charlie
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Owners: Roadrunner Racing (Greg Helm), Boat Racing (Patrick O’Neill), William Strauss, Gainesway Thoroughbred (Antony Beck)
Purchase price: $110,000
Morning line: 8-1
Jon White’s analysis: Can Hot Rod Charlie turn the tables on Essential Quality? Essential Quality won the 1 1/16-mile Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by three-quarters of a length at odds of 7-2, while Hot Rod Charlie ran second at a humongous 94-1. Hot Rod Charlie is coming off a win in the Louisiana Derby. His sire, Oxbow, won the 2013 Preakness Stakes after finishing sixth in the Kentucky Derby. Hot Rod Charlie is a grandson of Indian Charlie, who finished third as the favorite in the 1998 Kentucky Derby. O’Neill is a two-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer (I’ll Have Another in 2012 and Nyquist in 2016). Prat won the controversial 2019 Kentucky Derby when he rode 65-1 longshot Country House, who finished second and was moved up to first via the disqualification of Maximum Security.
White’s ranking: Fourth
Latest Kentucky Derby betting odds: Favorites holding steady for now
Not much has changed in the last hour as Essential Quality (Post 14) is holding steady at 5-2, Rock Your World (15) at 5-1 and Hot Rod Charlie (9) at 6-1.
Let’s look at the exacta prices with those three horses. These prices are based on a $2 ticket, which would be a $12 exacta box: (9-14) $61.80, (9-15) $80.40, (14-9) $53.80, (14-15) $38.20, (15-9) $74.40, (15-14) $42.80. So far about $11.3 million has been bet to win on the race.
Here are the odds as of 2:15 p.m. EDT in Louisville.
1. Known Agenda 11-1
2. Like the King 51-1
3. Brooklyn Strong 40-1
4. Keepmeinmind 45-1
5. Sainthood 38-1
6. O Besos 39-1
7. Mandaloun 28-1
8. Medina Spirit 12-1
9. Hot Rod Charlie 6-1
10. Midnight Bourbon 13-1
11. Dynamic One 40-1
12. Helium 39-1
13. Hidden Stash 33-1
14. Essential Quality 5-2
15. Rock Your World 5-1
16. King Fury SCRATCHED
17. Highly Motivated 11-1
18. Super Stock 32-1
19. Soup and Sandwich 24-1
20. Bourbonic 28-1
Kentucky Derby 2021 horses: Medina Spirit
Post 8: Medina Spirit
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: John Velazquez
Owner: Zedan Racing Stables (Amr F. Zedan)
Purchase price: $35,000
Morning line: 15-1
Jon White’s analysis: Only two horses have ever defeated Medina Spirit (Life Is Good twice and Rock Your World once). The Kentucky-bred Protonico colt is capable of proving a tough customer Saturday, especially considering who trains him and rides him. Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby a record-tying six times (Silver Charm in 1997, Real Quiet in 1998, War Emblem in 2002, American Pharoah in 2015, Justify in 2018 and Authentic in 2020). Ben Jones is the only other trainer with six Kentucky Derby wins to his credit. Velazquez is a three-time Kentucky Derby-winning jockey (Animal Kingdom in 2011, Always Dreaming in 2017 and Authentic in 2020).
White’s ranking: Fifth
Kentucky Derby 2021 horses: Mandaloun
Post 7: Mandaloun
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Owner: Juddmonte (Fahad bin Khalid)
Purchase price: Homebred
Morning line: 15-1
Jon White’s analysis: Mandaloun moves up two notches in the rankings this week. That’s mainly because he seems to have trained splendidly since finishing sixth as the favorite in the Louisiana Derby after winning the Risen Star Stakes. Mandaloun “had no physical excuse” for his Louisiana Derby clunker, according to Cox. ‘We’re hoping he just had an off day and bounces back,’ Cox said in a recent interview. Mandaloun is one of three Into Mischief colts in this race, along with Highly Motivated and Soup and Sandwich. Into Mischief is the sire of 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Authentic. Mandaloun is a grandson of 2003 Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker.
White’s ranking: Sixth
Aaron Rodgers looking pretty relaxed ahead of the Kentucky Derby
Aaron Rodgers might be contemplating a future without the Packers, but he isn’t saying no to going to the Kentucky Derby with some of his Green Bay teammates.
The reigning NFL MVP and fiancé Shailene Woodley were spotted in Louisville, Ky., along with some of Rodgers’ Packers teammates and their significant others in the hours before the running of the 147th Kentucky Derby on Saturday. Rodgers, for his part, looks pretty relaxed for a guy who reportedly isn’t happy with the front office in Green Bay.
Here’s a photo of the well-dressed group posted by Packers offensive lineman David Bakhtiari’s wife, Frankie Shebby. Rodgers is at the top left above Woodley.
Later in the afternoon, Rodgers explained why he’s a Kentucky Derby regular.
Of course, look who showed up to steal Rodgers’ Derby Day thunder:
Kentucky Derby 2021 horses: O Besos
Post 6: O Besos
Trainer: Gregory Foley
Jockey: Marcelino Pedroza, Jr.
Owners: Bernard Racing (L. Barrett Berbard), Tagg Team Racing (Travis Foley), West Point Thoroughbreds (Terrance Finley), Terry L. Stephens
Purchase price: Homebred
Morning line: 20-1
Jon White’s analysis: O Besos came charging late to finish third in the Louisiana Derby. His sire is Orb, who won the 2013 Kentucky Derby when he was second with a furlong to go. Being first or second a furlong from the finish is historically significant. That’s because 52 of the last 55 Kentucky Derby winners were first or second a furlong from the finish. The feeling here is O Besos will not be able to be one-two with a furlong left to run, which would greatly reduce his chances to win Saturday. But it will not be surprising to see O Besos come on late to finish second, third or fourth.
White’s ranking: 10th
Kentucky Derby 2021 horses: Sainthood
Post 5: Sainthood
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Corey Lanerie
Owners: CHC Inc. (Kit Ng), WinStar Farm (Kenny Trout)
Purchase price: $62,000
Morning line: 50-1
Jon White’s analysis: Sainthood is another who could possibly sneak into the Kentucky Derby exacta, trifecta or superfecta if the Kentucky-bred Mshawish colt experiences better racing luck than in his most recent start. Sainthood finished second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks on synthetic footing, but he had a nightmarish trip. Corey Lanerie rides this time. Lanerie has won numerous riding titles at Churchill Downs. Sainthood is a grandson of 1999 Belmont Stakes winner Lemon Drop Kid.
White’s ranking: 15th
Kentucky Derby 2021 horses: Keepmeinmind
Post 4: Keepmeinmind
Trainer: Robertino Diodoro
Jockey: David Cohen
Owners: Spendthrift Farm (Eric P. Gustavson), Cypress Creek Equine (Kevin Moody) and Arnold Bennewith
Purchase price: Private purchase
Morning line: 50-1
Jon White’s analysis: In his final 2020 start, Keepmeinmind rallied to win the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill. The Kentucky-bred Laoban colt was No. 5 on Jan. 8 in this newsletter’s first rankings for the 2021 Kentucky Derby. But he then finished fifth and sixth in his two starts so far this year. Keepmeinmind had a four-furlong workout in :46.20 last Friday at Churchill, best of 108 works at the distance. In light of that excellent drill, you might want to keep him in mind as someone at 50-1 on the morning line who just might get into in the exacta, trifecta or superfecta. Keepmeinmind is a grandson of 1998 Belmont Stakes winner Victory Gallop.
White’s ranking: 11th
Kentucky Derby 2021 horses: Brooklyn Strong
Post 3: Brooklyn Strong
Trainer: Daniel Velazquez
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
Owner: Mark Schwartz
Purchase price: $5,000
Morning line: 50-1
Jon White’s analysis: In his lone 2021 start, Brooklyn Strong ran fifth in the 1 1/8-mile Wood Memorial, a race in which the final time was an extremely slow 1:54.49. The New York-bred Wicked Strong gelding did win the 1 1/8-mile Remsen Stakes in his final start at Post 2, but this appears to be a mighty tall task for him.
White’s ranking: 17th
Latest Kentucky Derby odds: Favorite Essential Quality drops from 5-2 to 2-1
The big change in the past hour is that favorite Essential Quality dropped from 5-2 to 2-1. There were 14 horses that moved slightly to higher odds.
As the afternoon progresses, changes in the odds will become less likely because of the amount of money in the pool. Odds can change wildly if there is little money in pool, which is never the case with the Derby.
So far, the order of the top horses has not changed: Essential Quality (2-1), Rock Your World (5-1), Hot Rod Charlie (6-1), Known Agenda (11-1) and Highly Motivated (11-1). So far almost $7 million has been bet on the win of the race.
Here are the odds as of 12:15 p.m. EDT in Louisville.
1. Known Agenda 11-1
2. Like the King 52-1
3. Brooklyn Strong 41-1
4. Keepmeinmind 47-1
5. Sainthood 38-1
6. O Besos 39-1
7. Mandaloun 30-1
8. Medina Spirit 12-1
9. Hot Rod Charlie 6-1
10. Midnight Bourbon 13-1
11. Dynamic One 40-1
12. Helium 41-1
13. Hidden Stash 36-1
14. Essential Quality 2-1
15. Rock Your World 5-1
16. King Fury SCRATCHED
17. Highly Motivated 11-1
18. Super Stock 31-1
19. Soup and Sandwich 25-1
20. Bourbonic 29-1
Kentucky Derby 2021 horses: Like the King
Post 2: Like the King
Trainer: Wesley Ward
Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke
Owner: M Racing Group (Mickey Gonzalez)
Purchase price: $170,000
Morning line: 50-1
Jon White’s analysis: Like the King won the Jeff Ruby Steaks at odds of 7-1 on a synthetic surface. But the truth is the Kentucky-bred colt might not have won that race if not for runner-up Sainthood’s horrible trip. Like the King’s sire, Palace Malice, won the 2013 Belmont Stakes.
White’s ranking: 18th
Kentucky Derby 2021 horses: Known Agenda
Post 1: Known Agenda
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Owner: St. Elias Stable (Vincent Viola)
Purchase price: Homebred
Morning line: 6-1
Jon White’s analysis: Known Agenda won just one of his first four races, but he’s two for two since having blinkers added to his equipment. With four 1 1/8-mile races under his belt, the Florida Derby winner certainly has a solid foundation. Yes, he drew the dreaded inside post. But it helps Known Agenda that he has an outstanding jockey. Known Agenda is a Kentucky-bred son of Curlin, who finished third in the 2007 Kentucky Derby before winning the Preakness Stakes and two Horse of the Year titles. Pletcher has won the Kentucky Derby twice (Super Saver in 2010, Always Dreaming in 2017). Pletcher also is represented in this year’s Kentucky Derby by Dynamic One, Sainthood and Bourbonic.
White’s ranking: Third
Latest odds for the Kentucky Derby: $5.1 million already placed on winner
Odds in the Kentucky Derby don’t change a lot during the day, but it’s always interesting to see which horses are trending in which direction. In the last hour, only one horse has moved more than one number.
Like the King (2) has dropped from 52-1 to 50-1. Known Agenda (1), Brooklyn Strong (3), Keepmeinmind (4), Sainthood (5), O Besos (6), Dynamic One (11), Helium (12), Hidden Stash (13) and Bourbonic (20) have all had their odds lowers by just one. No one increased in odds. However, when the big dump on money comes in on Essential Quality, things will change.
So far, bettors have placed $5.1 million on the winner of the race.
Here are the odds as of 11:15 a.m. EDT in Louisville:
1. Known Agenda 10-1
2. Like the King 50-1
3. Brooklyn Strong 40-1
4. Keepmeinmind 46-1
5. Sainthood 36-1
6. O Besos 38-1
7. Mandaloun 29-1
8. Medina Spirit 12-1
9. Hot Rod Charlie 6-1
10. Midnight Bourbon 13-1
11. Dynamic One 38-1
12. Helium 39-1
13. Hidden Stash 34-1
14. Essential Quality 5-2
15. Rock Your World 9-2
16. King Fury SCRATCHED
17. Highly Motivated 11-1
18. Super Stock 29-1
19. Soup and Sandwich 24-1
20. Bourbonic 27-1
Bob Baffert looks back on his wins and losses at the Kentucky Derby
There wasn’t the usual crush of media around Bob Baffert this week at Churchill Downs as he only has Medina Spirit, a 15-1 shot, in this year’s Kentucky Derby. But early in the week, before most of the media arrived, he was more than willing to just chat about anything outside his barn after training. It’s part of who he is, always available to pretty much anyone who comes by his barn for a selfie, an autograph, or just to chat.
So, it was Tuesday morning when he decided to school a couple reporters on how winning the Derby works. It was spurred on by a question about if he feels pressure having won six previous times.
“I could have won eight,” Baffert said with a laugh. He then went on to explore the question of if the best horse usually wins.
This is a slightly edited version of his explanation.
“I have had some bad luck and there are some that got away from me. And there are other guys that I beat when they should have won. You’ve got to take the good with the bad.
“I won it with some good horses. I won it with the best horses.
“Authentic (2020) came into a screwed-up year and won it. But Tiz the Law was the favorite.
“Silver Charm (1997), I don’t know if he was the best horse. We were in there with Pulpit and he was the hot horse.
“Real Quiet (1998) had Indian Charlie in there and I thought he was the best horse.
“War Emblem (2002), I just bought him and I thought he was the best horse but I also thought he needed the lead.
“Justify (2018), I knew he was the best horse.
“American Pharoah (2015) and Justify, I knew if I got beat with those it would be horrible.
“Point Given (2001) should have won and he got beat. That was a tough one.
“Cavonnier (1996) got beat a nose. He wasn’t the best horse. Grindstone was a good horse, better than Cavonnier.
“Unbridled Song (1996) was the best horse, but he had [hoof] issues and he didn’t win [also losing to Grindstone].
“I don’t look back on anything, I just focus on what’s ahead of me.
“It sounds good that you won six but, every year you start all over. Like when Authentic won it, it felt like my first winner after what we went through last year.”
The Kentucky Derby is still not back to normal, but it’s a lot closer than it was last year.
No rain in the forecast? This really is an unusual Kentucky Derby
The weather for the 147th running of the Kentucky Derby is, in a word, perfect.
According to Weather.com, the temperature will be 73 degrees with no chance of rain all day. It doesn’t happen often that the Derby escapes without some precipitation. The last time there was no rain at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May was 2014 and 2015. Then, you have to go back to 2005 and 2006 for rain-free Derbies.
The wettest Derby was in 2018 when Justify won the first leg of the Triple Crown. That day 3.15 inches of rain fell.
Wet weather can be used as a handicapping tool as some horses just do better when it’s wet and some really struggle in it. Of Saturday’s Derby horses Brooklyn Strong (3), O Besos (6), Mandaloun (7), Medina Spirit (8), Hidden Stash (13), Essential Quality (14) and Bourbonic (20) have won on a wet track. Known Agenda (1), Like the King (2), Hot Rod Charlie (9), Dynamic One (11) and Highly Motivated (17) have never won on a wet track. The rest have never raced on that kind of surface.
Rock Your World gives Hall of Famer Ron McAnally a shot at elusive Kentucky Derby win
There are three Hall of Fame trainers trying to win the 147th edition of the Kentucky Derby. But only two of them are actually running horses.
If that doesn’t make any sense, then neither does the fact that 1990 inductee Ron McAnally, who never won the race as a trainer, is trying to win it as a breeder. But he’s got a pretty good shot.
Rock Your World surprised everyone a month ago when he won the Santa Anita Derby by 4 ¼ lengths in his third start and first time on dirt. He was so impressive that he was installed as the 5-1 second choice in the Kentucky Derby behind Essential Quality at 2-1. Both colts are undefeated.
McAnally, 88, says if Rock Your World wins the Kentucky Derby with he and his wife, Debbie, as the breeders, it would be “at the top” of a lifetime full of accomplishments.
Potential payoffs for the Kentucky Oaks/Kentucky Derby daily double
One of the best indicators of how the public will view the favorites in the Kentucky Derby can be found in the Kentucky Oaks/Kentucky Derby daily double. In short, you have to pick the winner of both races and if your horse doesn’t win the Oaks, your bet is dead.
So, we take an advance look at how the public perceives the wagering opportunities. Of course, Malathaat won the Oaks on Friday. Here are the potential payoffs for a $1 bet.
1. Known Agenda $31.20
2. Like the King $224.00
3. Brooklyn Strong $323.00
4. Keepmeinmind $191.90
5. Sainthood $234.60
6. O Besos $128.40
7. Mandaloun $76.70
8. Medina Spirit $47.90
9. Hot Rod Charlie $31.30
10. Midnight Bourbon $53.10
11. Dynamic One $118.70
12. Helium $207.90
13. Hidden Stash $190.30
14. Essential Quality $14.80
15. Rock Your World $19.00
16. King Fury SCRATCHED
17. Highly Motivated $43.40
18. Super Stock $170.60
19. Soup and Sandwich $184.00
20. Bourbonic $200.50
The one that got away: ‘I cost Joel Rosario a Triple Crown’
Ron Anderson is considered the gold standard of jockey agents. He has been the agent for riders such as Jerry Bailey, Gary Stevens and Garrett Gomez. He currently controls the books of Joel Rosario and John Velazquez.
Jockey agents rarely get the credit they deserve for landing their clients the best horses, which Anderson has been doing with great skill for years. His successes are a mountain compared to his missteps. But Wednesday morning, swapping stories with trainer Bob Baffert and two reporters, he told about the big one that got away.
“I blew it with one of the Triple Crown winners,” Anderson said. “I cost Joel Rosario a Triple Crown.”
Here’s how it would have had to happen. Rosario was in Del Mar on Aug. 31, 2014, then he rode the next day at Saratoga. Then, he would have had to go back to Del Mar on Sept. 3 to ride in the Del Mar Futurity. Follow that up with going back to New York for opening day at Belmont on Sept. 5.
“That’s the worst trip for a rider is to go from Del Mar to Saratoga and back,” Anderson said.
“So, Bob [Baffert] texts me two days before he entered and said can you get here on Wednesday because the [Del Mar] Futurity was on a Wednesday. I’m thinking, ‘I’ve got to tell this jock, he’s got to be back to New York on Friday.’
“[Baffert] texts back, ‘It’s a maiden.’ I text back, ‘I can’t get there.’ If I had just picked up the phone. We communicate a lot … I know by the tone of his voice, the confidence level. He would have said, ‘He’s a maiden but he’s definitely OK.’ I would have been there in two seconds.
“That cost me American Pharoah.
“I’ve made a lot of great calls in my life. I’ve made a few bonehead calls. That’s the worst one.”
You have to remember Pharoah lost his first race, finishing fifth in a maiden special at Del Mar. Martin Garcia rode him that time. In the Futurity, Garcia was scheduled to ride another Baffert horse, Holiday Camp, which Garcia had ridden twice before including his first win. So, Pharoah needed a jockey.
And that’s how Victor Espinoza later became the first Triple Crown winning jockey in almost four decades.
Essential Quality narrowly avoids dreaded one post, is 2-1 favorite in Kentucky Derby
Horse racing trainers generally can rationalize any post position as being OK, except for one, and that’s the one. It’s a place where a horse can get boxed in by the rail or covered up by the 19 horses to his outside and trapped with nowhere to go.
So, as the random draw for the 147th Kentucky Derby was coming to a close Tuesday, there were three positions yet to be matched with a horse and the one post was in the mix. And the undefeated favorite, Essential Quality, did not have his spot yet.
Was trainer Brad Cox nervous?
“Yeah, a lot, a whole lot,” Cox said.
He even formulated a way to make things sound just fine if his horse drew the one.
“Churchill does have a new [starting] gate [that puts the one further away from the rail],” Cox said. “That’s going to give the one a little bit more opportunity at a clear run. That was the positive spin I was going to put on it if I got the one, but fortunately I don’t have to use that excuse.”
They bonded over football. Now five friends are going to the Kentucky Derby as owners
As the private planes of horse owners started to stack up at Louisville Muhammad Ali International Airport in advance of the Kentucky Derby, five members of the Hot Rod Charlie ownership group took a Sunday morning Southwest Airlines flight from Raleigh, N.C., connected through Atlanta, before landing some four miles from Churchill Downs.
Only two of them paid the extra $20 for early boarding.
Meet the racing syndicate made up of five former Brown University football players calling themselves Boat Racing, named for a college beer drinking game. They own 25% of Hot Rod Charlie, second-place finisher in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and winner of the Louisiana Derby.
Eric Armagost, Dan Giovacchini, Reiley Higgins, Patrick O’Neill and Alex Quoyeser converged on the Ivy League school in Providence, R.I., to get a good education and also play some football. What struck up was a friendship that has landed the quintet with jobs in California.
“We spent so much time together in college,” said Higgins, the only native Californian who played at Santa Margarita High. “Football was a huge time commitment, almost like a full-time job. We joined the same fraternity, had similar classes, studied together and lived together. While so many of our classmates ended up in Boston or New York, we all ended up in California after graduating.”
And they are remarkably successful considering they are all around 28 years old.
What time does the 2021 Kentucky Derby start? What TV channel is it on?
It’s the question that’s asked every first Saturday in May (or the first Saturday in September last year) with an answer that is usually in the ballpark of the previous year.
But, in honor of “Jeopardy’s” search for a new host (I like Anderson Cooper, so far), let’s do it in the form of a question.
Answer: 3:57 p.m. in Los Angeles, 4:57 p.m. in Denver, 5:57 p.m. in Chicago and 6:57 p.m. in Louisville. It’s shown on NBC (Channel 4 in Los Angeles)
Question: What time is the Kentucky Derby?