Watch Mage win the 149th Kentucky Derby
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — A week that horse racing would like to forget ended on Saturday when Mage won the Kentucky Derby on a day in which two horses died and the favorite was scratched out of the race over fear for his health.
There was plenty of celebration as the massive Churchill Downs crowd watched as Mage and Two Phil’s battled down the stretch only to have the runner-up in the Florida Derby win by one length for trainer Gustavo Delgado.
It was also a career accomplishment for jockey Javier Castellanos, who picked up his first Kentucky Derby win in his 16th try.
Angel of Empire is favored to win Kentucky Derby
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — As post time approaches, it appears that Angel of Empire, at 4-1, will be the favorite for 149th running of the Kentucky Derby. Tapit Trice is the second choice at 9-2. The Japanese import Derma Sotogake is third at 7-1 followed by Two Phil’s at 8-1.
Angel of Empire has $6.214 million of the $39.144 million win pool.
The biggest mover during the day has been Cyclone Mischief, who started the morning at 33-1 and was 27-1 as race time approached.
With an 80-1 longshot winning last year in Rich Strike, bettors were not going to let any high prices sneak past them. The longest shot on the board is Jace’s Road and King Russell at 30-1.
With less than an hour until post, here are the current odds:
1-Hit Show 25-1
2-Verifying 15-1
3-Two Phil’s 8-1
4-Confidence Game 18-1
5-Tapit Trice 9-2
6-Kingsbarn 10-1
7-Reincarnate 13-1
8-Mage 16-1
11-Disarm 25-1
12-Jace’s Road 30-1
13-Sun Thunder 29-1
14-Angel of Empire 4-1
16-Raise Cain 29-1
17-Derma Sotogake 7-1
18-Rocket Can 27-1
21-Cyclone Mischief 27-1
22-Mandarin Hero 19-1
23-King Russell 30-1
Know your Kentucky Derby horses: King Russell (Post 18)
Trainer: Ron Moquett
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Owners: Brereton C. Jones and Naber Racing
Purchase price: $60,000
Lifetime record: 6-1-3-0
Winnings: $322,250
How he got here: Second in the Arkansas Derby
Qualifying points: 40
Morning line: 50-1
Comment: This horse was lucky to get into the race as the third also eligible. In his stakes debut, he finished second at 58-1 in the Arkansas Derby. He is a closer, but likely not of the class of other closers in the race. This is the time that 3-year-olds improve but it’s a tough sell that he would improve enough to be competitive in this race. It took him five tries to break his maiden.
Photos: Unique Kentucky Derby hats step into the spotlight
Amid a chaotic and distressing week at Churchill Downs, one Kentucky Derby tradition continued to flourish.
Seven horses have died after training or racing at the track during the past two weeks, leading to vast lineup changes ahead of the 149th running of the Kentucky Derby.
But ornately-dressed fans arrived in full regalia as usual Saturday, with distinct hats stealing the spotlight.
Know your Kentucky Derby horses: Mandarin Hero (Post 17)
Trainer: Terunobu Fujita
Jockey: Kazushi Kimura
Owner: Hiroaki Arai
Purchase price: $100,000
Lifetime record: 6-4-2-0
Winnings: $386,854
How he got here: Second in the Santa Anita Derby
Qualifying points: 40
Morning line: 20-1
Comment: If you are looking for an upset horse, this could be the one. He lost by a nose to Practical Move in the Santa Anita Derby in his only qualifying race. Normally the second-place finisher in the 100-point preps makes it into the Derby, but he had to have two horses scratch before making the field. His connection shipped him to Churchill Downs just in case that were to happen but they were really targeting the Preakness. His Santa Anita Derby run was most impressive with Kazushi Kimura aboard. His races in Japan were at Tokyo City, which is a second level track.
Know your Kentucky Derby horses: Rocket Can (Post 15)
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Owners: Frank Fletcher Racing Operations
Purchase price: $245,000
Lifetime record: 7-2-2-0
Winnings: $383,413
How he got here: Won the Holy Bull Stakes, second in the Fountain of Youth and fourth in the Arkansas Derby
Qualifying points: 60
Morning line: 30-1
Comment: There was a lot more buzz on this colt before his lackluster effort in the Arkansas Derby as the favorite. Trainer Bill Mott is adding blinkers to try to reverse his form in the last race. Mott is one of only four trainers in the race who have won the Derby. His win came with Country House after the disqualification of Maximum Security. Rocket Can’s best race was a second in the Fountain of Youth behind Forte.
Know your Kentucky Derby horses: Derma Sotogake (Post 14)
Trainer: Hidataka Otonashi
Jockey: Christophe Lemaire
Owners: Hiroyuki Asanuma
Purchase price: $180,200
Lifetime record: 8-4-0-2
Winnings: $1,162,164
How he got here: Won the UAE Derby
Qualifying points: 100
Morning line: 10-1
Comment: One of the first rules of handicapping the Derby is to throw out the winner of the UAE Derby because the horse has yet to produce a good showing in the Kentucky Derby. Yet, every year, handicappers come up with reasons to support the UAE winner only to be disappointed. Is this the year the streak ends? History says no. He does have an accomplished jockey and has looked good in training.
Betting odds tighten about two hours before the Kentucky Derby
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Bettors are starting to tighten the field, dropping the odds on five horses in the last hour. They were small drops as Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice held on as the 9-2 favorites. Angel of Empire has had $3.848 million bet on him while Tapit Trice has brought in $3.785 million. The overall win pool is $26.909 million.
The horses whose odds dropped were Reincarnate (12-1), Jace’s Road (30-1), Sun Thunder (28-1), Cyclone Mischief (28-1) and King Russell (29-1).
With less than two hours until post, here are the current odds:
1-Hit Show 25-1
2-Verifying 15-1
3-Two Phil’s 8-1
4-Confidence Game 17-1
5-Tapit Trice 9-2
6-Kingsbarn 10-1
7-Reincarnate 12-1
8-Mage 17-1
11-Disarm 24-1
12-Jace’s Road 30-1
13-Sun Thunder 28-1
14-Angel of Empire 9-2
16-Raise Cain 29-1
17-Derma Sotogake 8-1
18-Rocket Can 27-1
21-Cyclone Mischief 28-1
22-Mandarin Hero 20-1
23-King Russell 29-1
Know your Kentucky Derby horses: Raise Cain (Post 13)
Trainer: Ben Colebrook
Jockey: Gerardo Corrales
Owners: Andrew N. Warren and Rania Warren
Purchase price: $180,000
Lifetime record: 7-2-1-1
Winnings: $296,328
How he got here: Won the Gotham Stakes and fifth in the Blue Grass Stakes
Qualifying points: 64
Morning line: 50-1
Comment: It’s difficult to come up with a scenario where he is part of the winning equation. Fifth in the Blue Grass is not the kind of race you want going into the Derby. His win by 7½ in the Gotham is impressive, but he wasn’t running against much. Javier Castellanos, an Eclipse Award-winning jockey, was scheduled to ride the colt but came off him to ride Mage. That’s not a confidence builder for Raise Cain’s connections. Difficult to see him in the top tier.
Bettors favor Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice to win Kentucky Derby
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — The race to see who will be favored tightened in the last hour as Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice both are listed at 9-2 odds. There is a little more money bet on Angel of Empire, $3.150 million to $3.036 million. So far $21.185 million has been bet to win on the race.
Betting on the race comes from all sources, not just money bet on track. There is mobile betting in most states, including California.
In other moves in the last hour, five horses had their odds dropped by one: Jace’s Road (31-1), Sun Thunder (29-1), Raise Cain (29-1), Mandarin Hero (20-1) and King Russell (30-1).
With three hours until post, here are the current odds:
1-Hit Show 25-1
2-Verifying 15-1
3-Two Phil’s 8-1
4-Confidence Game 17-1
5-Tapit Trice 9-2
6-Kingsbarn 10-1
7-Reincarnate 13-1
8-Mage 17-1
11-Disarm 24-1
12-Jace’s Road 31-1
13-Sun Thunder 29-1
14-Angel of Empire 9-2
16-Raise Cain 29-1
17-Derma Sotogake 8-1
18-Rocket Can 27-1
21-Cyclone Mischief 29-1
22-Mandarin Hero 20-1
23-King Russell 30-1
Know your Kentucky Derby horses: Angel of Empire (Post 12)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Owners: Albaugh Family Stables
Purchase price: $70,000
Lifetime record: 6-4-1-0
Winnings: $1,069,375
How he got here: Wins in the Arkansas Derby and Risen Star Stakes and a second in the Smarty Jones Stakes
Qualifying points: 154
Morning line: 8-1
Comment: People like this horse — a lot. It was a bit of a surprise that when the Oaks-Derby double prices were revealed that he had a shorter price than Forte. The double is usually a good indicator where the race day money is headed. He has a style that is similar to Forte and Tapit Trice, so it will be interesting to see who has the most to offer down the stretch. The Arkansas Derby winner has been successful in the Kentucky Derby, most notably American Pharoah in 2015. Jockey Flavien Prat had his choice of several horses and chose this one to ride, which is also a tell.
Know your Kentucky Derby horses: Sun Thunder (Post 11)
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Jockey: Brian Hernandez, Jr.
Owners: R T Racing Stable & Cypress Creek Equine
Purchase price: $400,000
Lifetime record: 6-1-1-1
Winnings: $247,500
How he got here: Second in the Risen Star Stakes, fourth in Blue Grass Stakes and Southwest Stakes and fifth in the Louisiana Derby
Qualifying points: 54
Morning line: 50-1
Comment: They are putting blinkers on the colt for this race in the hopes to keep him more focused and also keep him out of trouble in a crowded field. He is definitely a closer who should be coming late. The problem is deep closers don’t usually win the Derby, then Rich Strike put that theory to bed last year, although it was a fluke. Horse has won only one race and that was back on Dec. 31.
Odds continue to lower steadily for Cyclone Mischief
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Angel of Empire continued to accept the role as favorite as bettors have kept him at 4-1, just ahead of Tapit Trice at 9-2. As the race gets closer, so much money will be put in the pool that odds will not change much. So far a little over $17 million has been wagered to win on the Kentucky Derby.
One of the more interesting moves has been the steady lowering of odds on Cyclone Mischief, who picked up Eclipse Award winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. after the scratch of Forte. He started the morning at 33-1 and is currently at 29-1.
Other moves in the last hour were Hit Show dropping to 25-1 and Disarm coming up at 24-1.
With four hours until post, here are the current odds:
1-Hit Show 25-1
2-Verifying 15-1
3-Two Phil’s 8-1
4-Confidence Game 17-1
5-Tapit Trice 9-2
6-Kingsbarn 10-1
7-Reincarnate 13-1
8-Mage 17-1
11-Disarm 24-1
12-Jace’s Road 32-1
13-Sun Thunder 30-1
14-Angel of Empire 4-1
16-Raise Cain 30-1
17-Derma Sotogake 8-1
18-Rocket Can 27-1
21-Cyclone Mischief 29-1
22-Mandarin Hero 21-1
23-King Russell 31-1
Secretariat jockey looks back on what made the thoroughbred so special
Jockey Ron Turcotte and Secretariat were together for 18 of the horse’s 21 races. Turcotte missed his first two races because he was committed to another horse. The jockey missed his last race because he was suspended. In between was pure magic.
They had a bond that existed beyond Secretariat’s racing days.
“I thought we were good partners,” Turcotte said. “He knew exactly the way I moved my hand on him what to do. He never fought me when I wanted him to run or to relax. He relaxed really good and when I asked him to pick it up. He would do that too.”
It’s an axiom in horse racing that a good horse has one move and a great horse has two. And then there was Secretariat.
“I never rode a horse that had that many moves,” Turcotte said. “He had as many moves as he needed.”
Turcotte knew a lot about good horses. His win in the 1973 Kentucky Derby made him the first jockey to win back-to-back Derbies since Jimmy Winkfield did it in 1902. Turcotte’s 1972 win came aboard Riva Ridge, who was also owned by Meadow Farm.
Turcotte could have been the first jockey to win back-to-back Triple Crowns except for some bad weather. Riva Ridge won the Derby and Belmont Stakes but lost any opportunity to win the Preakness when the track came up sloppy, a surface that Riva Ridge did not run well on. He finished fourth.
After Secretariat was retired to stallion duty, Turcotte would go visit him on the farm. Turcotte stopped in 1978 after he was paralyzed in a racing accident.
“He would come over to fence and stick out his tongue like he use to in the morning,” Turcotte said. “I would say, ‘How you doing?’ and stuff like that. He would put his head on me and in my hand. He was a playful horse.
“There is no horse that will win the Triple Crown like we did. There will never be one exactly like him.”
Know your Kentucky Derby horses: Jace’s Road (Post 10)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Owners: West Point Thoroughbreds and Albaugh Family Stables
Purchase price: $510,000
Lifetime record: 6-2-0-2
Winnings: $238,050
How he got here: Third in the Louisiana Derby and fifth in the Southwest Stakes
Qualifying points: 45
Morning line: 50-1
Comment: This is a tough one to make a case for. Based in his performances in the Louisiana Derby and Southwest Stakes, it doesn’t look as if he has the distance to go 1¼ miles. His bright spot was winning the Gun Runner by 5½ lengths at Fair Grounds. In his two races at Churchill Downs he finished third in the Iroquois Stakes and eighth in the Street Sense Stakes. Easily the weakest of the Brad Cox entries.
Seventh horse dies at Churchill Downs ahead of Kentucky Derby
The death count at Churchill Downs grew to seven in a week when two horses were injured during racing and euthanized.
Chloe’s Dream, a 3-year-old gelding, was pulled up in the second race for maidens, vanned off and then euthanized. In the Pat Day Mile race, Freezing Points, a 3-year-old colt, was pulled up in the chute shortly after the start of the race. The horse was vanned off and later given a lethal injection.
There were no details of either of the injuries.
Know your Kentucky Derby horses: Disarm (Post 9)
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Owners: Winchell Thoroughbreds
Purchase price: Homebred
Lifetime record: 5-1-2-2
Winnings: $327,850
How he got here: Second in the Louisiana Derby and third in the Lexington Stakes
Qualifying points: 46
Morning line: 30-1
Comment: This colt is getting a lot of attention, especially for a 30-1 morning-line shot. Steve Asmussen is the winningest trainer in thoroughbred history but has never won the Kentucky Derby. He was a strong closer in a paceless Louisiana Derby. Having jockey Joel Rosario is also a plus. He has won only once and that was in his second race at Saratoga. He has had a bullet workout at Churchill Downs.
Which states likely will be betting the most on the Kentucky Derby?
Even people who don’t normally bet love to have some action on the Kentucky Derby, be it Derby party pool or asking a friend to place $2 on a horse through their online betting service. Given that there are no shortage of surveys, WalletHub came up with a formula to rank the most gambling addicted states from 1 to 50.
It’s actually based on more scientific data than more lighthearted surveys. It uses two main categories: Gambling-Friendliness and Gambling Problem and Treatment. There are 20 relevant metrics that are used to come up with those scores.
If you want to see the full survey, you can find it here.
California comes in 11th, with a 21st ranking for friendliness and fifth for treatment. Given the failure of the sports betting bill in the state it’s surprising the state ranked so high.
It will come as no surprise that the top state is Nevada and the 50th state is Utah. This needs little explanation.
For a slice of the findings, here are the 10 top and bottom states:
1. Nevada
2. South Dakota
3. Montana
4. (tie) Louisiana, Mississippi
6. New Jersey
7. Oklahoma
8. West Virginia
9. Pennsylvania
10. Oregon
41. Connecticut
42. Florida
43. Nebraska
44. Kansas
45. Wisconsin
46. Maine
47. Hawaii
48. Alaska
49. Vermont
50. Utah
Know your Kentucky Derby horses: Mage (Post 8)
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Owners: OGMA Investments, Ramiro Restrepo, Sterling Racing and Commonwealth
Purchase price: $290,000
Lifetime record: 3-1-1-0
Winnings: $247,200
How he got here: Second in the Florida Derby and fourth in the Fountain of Youth
Qualifying points: 50
Morning line: 15-1
Comment: Along with Kingsbarns he has only three starts and didn’t run as a 2-year-old. After a bad gate start in the Florida Derby he made a bold move on the backstretch and coming off the far turn. But in the end he couldn’t get it done and was run down by Forte. Forte also beat him in the Fountain of Youth. This will be his first ship away from Gulfstream Park. It’s a tall task for him to handle this group of horses with so little experience.
A clear betting favorite emerges after Kentucky Derby lineup changes
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — There is now a clear favorite after Saturday morning’s scratch of Forte. Angel of Empire is the 4-1 favorite for the Kentucky Derby with Tapit Trice a tick behind at 9-2. The pair were locked in at 9-2 since the morning.
Angel of Empire, trained by Brad Cox, has $2.017 million bet on him in the win pool. Tapit Trice, for trainer Todd Pletcher, has $1.862 million in backing. So far, $13.026 million has been bet to win on Derby.
Other moves belonged to Verifying, who went from 16-1 to 15-1, and Derma Sotogake, who went from 7-1 to 8-1.
With five hours until post, here are the current odds:
1-Hit Show 26-1
2-Verifying 15-1
3-Two Phil’s 8-1
4-Confidence Game 17-1
5-Tapit Trice 9-2
6-Kingsbarn 10-1
7-Reincarnate 13-1
8-Mage 17-1
11-Disarm 25-1
12-Jace’s Road 32-1
13-Sun Thunder 30-1
14-Angel of Empire 4-1
16-Raise Cain 30-1
17-Derma Sotogake 8-1
18-Rocket Can 27-1
21-Cyclone Mischief 30-1
22-Mandarin Hero 21-1
23-King Russell 32-1
Know your Kentucky Derby horses: Reincarnate (Post 7)
Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Jockey: John Velazquez
Owners: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert E. Masterson, Stonestreet Stables, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC and Catherine Donovan
Purchase price: $775,000
Lifetime record: 7-2-3-2
Winnings: $345,650
How he got here: Won the Sham (no points) and third in the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby
Qualifying points: 45
Morning line: 50-1
Comment: First off, a morning line of 50-1 seems a bit crazy. It should be much lower. The colt will probably be battling Verifying for the lead and John Velazquez is his jockey. Velazquez has won the Derby with Authentic and Medina Spirit (since disqualified) using this style. If they can keep the fractions soft, he could steal the race from the front end. He was formerly trained by Bob Baffert before moving to the Yakteen barn. Baffert ran him on the turf his first two races though the reason is unclear. He didn’t break his maiden until his fourth race but has always finished in the top three.
Daughter of Secretariat owner recalls the surreal Triple Crown win
Kate Chenery Tweedy, daughter of Secretariat owner Penny Chenery Tweedy, didn’t get to see the horse run in the first two legs of the Triple Crown, the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. Tickets were tight, and Penny and her brother and sister had obligations for seats that were greater than that for Kate.
But she did get to see what is considered the greatest race in history — Secretariat’s 31-length win in the Belmont Stakes.
In a recent interview with The Times, Kate recalled what June 9, 1973 was like for her, a day on which she was “very, very” nervous.”
“My sister and I were living in Brooklyn so we took the bettors’ train from Brooklyn,” Tweedy said of the train horse players would take to Belmont Park.
“Here we are in our little linen suits, melting in the heat,” she said. “It was filled with people reading the Daily Racing Form with mom’s picture on it and the horse’s picture. It was so surreal. And then everyone gets off and they get on the apron and we climb the stairs into the owner’s box. It was a real contrast. That’s what our life was like, two different worlds that barely crossed.”
Even though Secretariat was clearly the best horse going into the race, no one had won the Triple Crown for 25 years. So, nothing was for certain.
“I remember getting up the day of the Belmont and thinking, ‘Oh my God, what if we win?’” she said. “Nobody thought the Triple Crown could be won anymore. It was not on anyone’s horizon. The whole day was one of those, ‘Is this really happening?’”
But it did happen and the ground shook at Belmont Park as the crowd of 69,138 went wild.
“The crowd was screaming and some people were crying,” Tweedy said. “Others were jumping up and down. It was a moment when you knew you were seeing something otherworldly.
“I always thought something else would come along later but it hasn’t. We knew we were being gifted by something that nobody could imagine. You’re also thinking [down the stretch], don’t fall off. Something’s going to go wrong. The only thing you could think of was Ronnie [Turcotte, the jockey] was going to fall off. Of course, he didn’t.”
The moment remains in everybody’s memory, not just Tweedy’s.
“Everybody knew where they were when they watched the Belmont,” Tweedy said. “It was a pure moment [after the race] and a pretty difficult moment. I remember nobody knew what to say. We were talking but we were just babbling.”
Know your Kentucky Derby horses: Kingsbarns (Post 6)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Owner: Spendthrift Farm
Purchase price: $800,000
Lifetime record: 3-3-0-0
Winnings: $657,300
How he got here: Won the Louisiana Derby
Qualifying points: 100
Morning line: 12-1
Comment: He’s undefeated in three starts. The fact he’s had only three starts is bad. He didn’t race as a 2-year-old, which doesn’t work well unless you are Justify. Jose Ortiz will be the fourth jockey to ride him, meaning no jockey has stayed loyal to the colt. A plus in winning the Louisiana Derby means he’s run farther than any other horse in the race as it’s the only prep that is 1 3/16 miles as opposed to the 1 1/8 most of the others have run. He should be among the early speed horses, but he’s never run against this quality a field.
Cyclone Mischief moves up in latest betting odds after jockey change
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — The win odds on horses for the Kentucky Derby were virtually unchanged in the last hour. About $1.3 million was bet in the last hour. Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice were both listed at 9-2 with Angel of Empire having a slight lead in money bet with $1.338 million to Tapit Trice’s $1.307 million.
The only odds that changed was for Cyclone Mischief, who went from 31-1 to 30-1. He has moved more than any other horse, starting at 33-1 three hours ago. It might have something to do with Irad Ortiz Jr., arguably the best jockey in the country, switching to this horse after Forte scratched.
With six hours until post, here are the current odds:
1-Hit Show 26-1
2-Verifying 16-1
3-Two Phil’s 8-1
4-Confidence Game 17-1
5-Tapit Trice 9-2
6-Kingsbarn 10-1
7-Reincarnate 13-1
8-Mage 17-1
11-Disarm 24-1
12-Jace’s Road 32-1
13-Sun Thunder 30-1
14-Angel of Empire 9-2
16-Raise Cain 30-1
17-Derma Sotogake 7-1
18-Rocket Can 27-1
21-Cyclone Mischief 30-1
22-Mandarin Hero 21-1
23-King Russell 32-1
Weather forecast calls for a dry Derby and a fast track
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Those of you who were going to factor in a changing track condition into your handicapping can stand down. It’s going to be dry all day. According to the Weather Channel, the chance of rain is 1% to 2% during the race day. That translates to a “fast” track designation.
The temperature at race time will be around 77 degrees. Horses prefer a slightly cooler temperature but fans are really OK with that number.
It’s not unusual for there to be rain on Derby Day. In fact, according to weather.gov it has rained on 70 first Saturdays in May. It translates to 47%, or about half the time.
For weather nerds, here are some other facts.
Coldest temperature: 36 degrees in 1940 and 1957.
Warmest temperature: 94 degrees in 1959.
Wettest day: May 5, 2018, with 3.15 inches of rain. (Justify won on his way to a Triple Crown.)
Longest stretch of wet Derby Days (1-7 p.m.): seven from 2007-13
Longest stretch of dry Derby Days (1-7 p.m.): 12 from 1875-86
Know your Kentucky Derby horses: Tapit Trice (Post 5)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Luis Saez
Owners: Whisper Hill Farm and Gainesway Stable
Purchase price: $1.3 million
Lifetime record: 5-4-0-1
Winnings: $883,650
How he got here: Won the Blue Grass Stakes and Tampa Bay Derby
Qualifying points: 150
Morning line: 5-1
Comment: He’s a strong second choice on the morning line. He is a bit lightly raced but has really done nothing wrong, finishing third in his first race and then winning his next four. He has shown a versatility of style. He probably prefers to come running late as he did in the Tampa Bay Derby, but he was a stalker in the Blue Grass Stakes. If he wins, he will become the first horse sired by Tapit (a $125,000 stud fee) to win the Derby. It would be a surprise if he didn’t finish in the top three.
The very unscientific way to pick a Kentucky Derby winner
There are many ways to pick a winner in the Kentucky Derby. Some slave over performance charts, then there are the tip sheets and others just like the name or color of the horse.
Using the nonscientific method of just talking to people, Horse.bet, a racing betting portal, asked 1,003 people what they thought of this year’s crop of Kentucky Derby runners based on the categories of beauty, humor and luck. Told you it was unscientific. The breakdown of respondents were 48% female, 50% male and 2% nonbinary. The age range was 18 to 83 with an average age of 42.
If you want to see the full breakdown, the survey can be found here.
In the interest of less data, rather than more, here are how the horses are ranked, including the also eligibles. We have eliminated horses that were in the survey who are no longer eligible and adjusted the numbers.
- Confidence Game
- Cyclone Mischief
- Sun Thunder
- Angel of Empire
- Hit Show
- Rocket Can
- Mandarin Hero
- Raise Cain
- King Russell
- Reincarnate
- Forte
- Mage
- Tapit Trice
- Two Phil’s
- Disarm
- Kingsbarns
- Jace’s Road
- Verifying
- Derma Sotogake
If a long shot wins the Kentucky Derby, it could change future betting patterns
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Rich Strike is too old to run in this year’s Kentucky Derby, but he will likely have an effect on the betting.
Steve Kornacki, best known for his political analysis on MSNBC, is working for NBC Sports this week covering the Kentucky Derby. He’s been a fan for many years and knows his stuff.
He decided to see what happens to the betting after a long shot wins the race.
“I thought it was really interesting to go back and look at last time I think you had a Rich Strike-like upset in the Kentucky Derby,” Kornacki said. “To me that’s when you go back to 2009 and Mine That Bird coming out of absolutely nowhere and winning the race. If you take a look at 2010, the immediate next year, there was a dramatic Mine That Bird effect in the betting.
“No horse went off in 2010 at odds that were longer than 30-to-1. There were four horses in 2010 who were 50-to-1 on the morning line. Not a single one ended up more than 30-to-1. The favorite went off at 6-to-1. So the betting was very different in 2010 versus 2009, the money was much more evenly spread out.”
All of which could be a good thing for bettors.
“I think, if we see something like that, that’s one of the things we’re looking for,” Kornacki said. “If we see something like that this year, that could create unexpected value among some of the better horses in that race.”
Bettors having a problem picking Derby favorite
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — The betting public is still unsure if it likes Tapit Trice or Angel of Empire as the Kentucky Derby favorite. Angel of Empire has about $1.134 million in his win bet account while Tapit Trice has $1.116 million. So far, $7.7 million has been bet in the win pool.
Tapit Trice is trained by Todd Pletcher and Brad Cos conditions Angel of Empire.
As for the others, no horse’s odds have changed by more than a point. Verifying and Cyclone Mischief had their odds drop while Two Phil’s odds went up.
Here are the current odds:
1-Hit Show 26-1
2-Verifying 16-1
3-Two Phil’s 8-1
4-Confidence Game 17-1
5-Tapit Trice 9-2
6-Kingsbarn 10-1
7-Reincarnate 13-1
8-Mage 17-1
11-Disarm 24-1
12-Jace’s Road 32-1
13-Sun Thunder 30-1
14-Angel of Empire 9-2
16-Raise Cain 30-1
17-Derma Sotogake 7-1
18-Rocket Can 27-1
21-Cyclone Mischief 31-1
22-Mandarin Hero 21-1
23-King Russell 32-1
Know your Kentucky Derby horses: Confidence Game (Post 4)
Trainer: Keith Desormeaux
Jockey: James Graham
Owners: Don’t Tell My Wife Stables and Ocean Reef Racing
Purchase price: $25,000
Lifetime record: 7-3-1-2
Winnings: $785,525
How he got here: Won the Rebel Stakes, third in the Lecomte
Qualifying points: 57
Morning line: 20-1
Comment: The first thing that stands out is that he’s been off for 10 weeks. He got enough points by winning the Rebel that trainer Keith Desormeaux chose not to run him again. It’s always a question when a horse has not gone more than 1 1/16 miles heading into 1 ¼ miles. He has two wins at the Churchill track and threw a bullet work on Saturday. On a personal note, Desormeaux’s father, Harris, died on April 22. He was the patriarch of the family that also includes Hall of Fame jockey Kent Desormeaux. A win here would bring some tears.
Know your Kentucky Derby horses: Two Phils (Post 3)
Trainer: Larry Rivelli
Jockey: Jareth Loveberry
Owners: Patricia’s Hope, Phillip Sagan and Madaket Stables
Purchase price: Homebred
Lifetime record: 8-4-1-1
Winnings: $683,450
How he got here: Won the Jeff Ruby Steaks, third in the Risen Star, second in the Lecomte
Qualifying points: 123
Morning line: 12-1
Comment: Traditionally, Derby winners do not come out of the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park. However, Rich Strike was third in that race last year. Turfway has a synthetic course that more approximates a turf course. He might be a better turf horse. The race is a 100 pointer, no doubt because it is owned by Churchill Downs. He probably needs a strong inside trip, which could be made possible if Verifying and Hit Show try to go for the lead. He has been training at Hawthorne, where he has had some bullet works. In his only Grade 1 race, the Breeders’ Futurity, he finished seventh.
Know your Kentucky Derby horses: Verifying (Post 2)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
Owners: Jonathan Poulin, Westerberg Limited, Mrs. John Magnier, Derrick Smith and Michael B. Tabor
Purchase price: $775,000
Lifetime record: 6-2-2-0
Winnings: $489,900
How he got here: Second in the Blue Grass Stakes, fourth in the Rebel Stakes
Qualifying points: 54
Morning line: 15-1
Comment: Breaking from the two, he will have to go fast early to avoid getting shuffled back. But that takes energy and makes it suspect that he can hold a lead for 1¼ miles. In his last race, a second in the Blue Grass, he was caught in the stretch by Tapit Trice, and that race is a furlong shorter. Although he did have his highest speed factor in that race. His fourth in the Rebel as the favorite is a head scratcher. His sire is Triple Crown winner Justify, whose progeny haven’t been overly successful in dirt routes.
Early Derby favorite Forte is scratched from race
Just when you thought this Kentucky Derby couldn’t get any crazier, morning line favorite Forte was scratched out of the Kentucky Derby after a state veterinary examination on Saturday. He became the fifth horse to scratch out of the race.
There were rumors all week that the Todd Pletcher trainee would be scratched but the hall of fame trainer dismissed those notions. However, in a break from his normal routine, Pletcher galloped the horse around 7:45 a.m. as state veterinarians watched. Dr. Nick Smith then talked to Pletcher and Mike Repole, co-owner of the horse, and they decided to scratch the horse.
This reduced the Kentucky Derby field to 18.
Why Secretariat’s Triple Crown feat continues to resonate 50 years later
Editor’s note: Jon White is one of the country’s leading racing historians. In addition, he does the morning line at Santa Anita and Del Mar. Here, he shares some thoughts about Secretariat’s role in racing history.
Secretariat’s Triple Crown sweep was widely celebrated at the time that he accomplished it, but his feat actually looks even more phenomenal 50 years later, primarily because no horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes in faster time than he did.
Not only did Secretariat run fast in each leg of what many consider to be horse racing’s most difficult achievement, it’s also a testament to his greatness that he employed a different running style to win the three races. In the Derby, he rallied from last in the field of 13. In the Preakness, he made a spectacular early move on the clubhouse turn. In the Belmont, he exhibited early speed, drew away to a big lead on the far turn, then continued to pour it on in the stretch to win by a magnificent 31 lengths.
Laffit Pincay Jr. rode Sham against Secretariat and his jockey, Ron Turcotte, in the Triple Crown. Years later, Pincay told me that in the Kentucky Derby, he had absolutely no doubt Sham was going to win when he took the lead turning for home. But Secretariat ran right past Sham in the stretch. When that happened, Pincay was stunned. That’s because Pincay could feel Sham running so strongly beneath him. “I just couldn’t believe Secretariat was going faster than we were,” Pincay said. Secretariat won by 2½ lengths.
In the Preakness, Secretariat was last early in the field of six, then made an electrifying move on the clubhouse turn to take the lead shortly after entering the backstretch. Thinking that Turcotte had moved too soon, Pincay’s confidence soared in his belief that Sham was going to win the Preakness. But Secretariat prevailed again by 2½ lengths, while Sham again had to settle for second.
In the Belmont, Secretariat dueled for the early lead with Sham as the pair drew far in front of the others on the backstretch. The time for the first six furlongs was 1:09 4/5, a scorching pace in a 1½-mile race. Many thought Turcotte had blown it by having Secretariat involved in such a torrid pace. Sham did falter badly after going so fast early, eventually finishing last in the field of five. Secretariat? He seemed to get stronger as the furlongs continued.
On the far turn, Secretariat drew out to a five-length lead, which then grew to 10 lengths, then to 15 while he was “moving like a tremendous machine,” as Chic Anderson said during his iconic call of the race for CBS TV. Running up the score even more in the stretch, Secretariat ultimately reached the finish 31 lengths in front while obliterating Gallant Man’s track record by 2 3/5 seconds. Many believe Secretariat’s Belmont to be the greatest performance in the history of American racing.
Where does Secretariat rank among the all-time greats in this country? A whole lot of people think he’s No. 1. In addition to being the first Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old horse of the year and then repeating as horse of the year at 3, Secretariat took on his elders and crushed a stellar field in the 1973 Marlboro Cup, a race in which the runner-up was his accomplished stablemate, 1972 Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winner Riva Ridge.
Secretariat was also an exceptional grass performer. Turcotte once told me, “You might think I’m crazy, but as great as Secretariat was on the dirt, I think he was even better on the grass.” Secretariat raced on the turf twice, winning both times with panache.
But in terms of Secretariat’s body of work, it should be remembered that five of his 21 career starts did result in a loss, most famously when he was upset by Onion in Saratoga’s Whitney Stakes.
I happen to believe this country’s all-time greatest racehorse was Man o’ War, followed in order by Secretariat, Citation and Kelso. These are the four who, to me, belong on racing’s Mt. Rushmore. When a distinguished panel ranked the top 100 horses of the 20th century for he Blood-Horse magazine, they came up with the same top four horses in the same order.
On a personal note, the 50th anniversary of Secretariat’s Triple Crown really does mean a lot to me. That’s mainly because of a rather bold prediction I made in 1973 in my high school newspaper sports column on March 22: “Going out on a limb and living dangerously, I dare say that 1973 will be a historic year as Secretariat will become the first Triple Crown winner since the great Citation in 1948.” It turned out that in the Triple Crown of 1973, Secretariat did not let me or anyone else down.
Know your Kentucky Derby horses: Hit Show (Post 1)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Manny Franco
Owner: Gary and Mary West Stables
Purchase price: Homebred
Lifetime record: 5-3-1-0
Winnings: $404,375
How he got here: Second in the Wood Memorial, won the Withers
Qualifying points: 60
Morning line: 30-1
Comment: You generally don’t look to a Wood Memorial runner to find the winner of the Kentucky Derby. It’s a race he should have won but was beaten by 59-1 long shot Lord Miles, who was ruled out of the Kentucky Derby on Thursday after his trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. had two deaths in less than a week at his barn. Hit Show has been the favorite in all five of his races but the one post is not an easy place to win from although it’s easier since Churchill built the 20-horse starting gate, giving the rail horse more room to maneuver. When trainer Cox learned about his post position he said he might need to rethink the strategy. Hit Show will be easy to spot in the field as he is gray.
‘Even more phenomenal 50 years later’: A look back at Secretariat’s Triple Crown
There are moments in sports which forever embed themselves in the minds of those who watched it, either live or through an endless video loop.
There was Michael Jordan or Kobe Bryant bringing their teams back with furious fourth-quarter rallies. Muhammad Ali standing over a fallen Sonny Liston. Brandi Chastain’s celebration after winning the 1999 Women’s World Cup. Or Kirk Gibson hobbling around the bases after his pinch-hit home run in the 1988 World Series.
But the one that you can expect to see over and over for the next six weeks is the sight of jockey Ron Turcotte looking backward, with no one in sight, while riding Secretariat in the 1973 Belmont Stakes to win the Triple Crown.
“I can’t very well forget it because every time I go on YouTube it pops up,” Turcotte said last week.
What time does the 2023 Kentucky Derby start? What TV channel is it on?
Everybody loves to be in a Kentucky Derby pool, especially if you have 19 friends, or 19 people you think are your friends. You’ve gone to a neighbor’s house, usually one who was raised in Kentucky but for whatever reason thought living elsewhere was a better idea.
Honestly, your chances are 1 in 20. Imagine being the person who got stuck with Rich Strike last year, a horse that got into the Derby only when another horse scratched out. Oh, yeah, he won 80-1.
But whatever your reason, whatever your draw, whatever number of mint juleps you’ve had, everyone has the same question. What time is the Kentucky Derby?
We’ll answer this question with geographical accuracy.