Reporting from Houston — Dallas Keuchel won the American League Cy Young Award in 2015. Clayton Kershaw did not win the National League award that year, but he did in three of the previous four years.
No matter what numbers you might have run and what predictions you might have made, slim was the chance that neither pitcher would survive the fifth inning.
But neither pitcher did on Sunday, in Game 5 of the World Series, and not because of some trendy data point. Both pitchers got hit, and hit hard.
That left it to … well, to the other starting pitchers. The Astros used two, Collin McHugh and Brad Peacock, who combined to give up five runs in 31/3 innings. The Astros won 13-12, so that’s a big “whatever” for them. They are one win from a World Series championship, with Justin Verlander on deck.
The Dodgers turned to Kenta Maeda, and that did not work out so well, either. His failure turned out to be critical.
“It’s really the end of the season so, regardless of how I feel, I’ve got to compete and put up results,” Maeda said via an interpreter.
At a time when just one out might have halted the Astros’ rampage, at least for the moment, Maeda gave up a three-run home run to Jose Altuve, a bomb that made a lead evaporate for the visiting team and made a ballpark come alive for the home team.
Maeda had faced 30 batters in the postseason, without giving up either a run or an extra-base hit. He gave up both to the first batter he faced on Sunday, the final swing that accounted for the final ugly numbers on Kershaw’s ledger.
Kershaw, staked to a 4-0 lead, gave up four runs in the fourth inning. The Dodgers put up three in the top of the fifth, and Kershaw went back out for the bottom of the fifth. He did not finish the inning, and the box score shows he gave up six runs in 4 2/3 innings.
As a starter, Maeda is used to an unhurried warmup. And, as the fifth inning proceeded, there was no sense that Maeda would be needed, at least not in that inning.
Kershaw got the first two outs. He was one pitch from getting out of the inning, but George Springer worked the count full and walked, on eight pitches.
Alex Bregman walked, on 10 pitches, and that was the end for Kershaw. Maeda, who had not started to warm up until late in the inning because Kershaw got those first two outs so quickly, hurried into the game.
“I had to rush a little bit,” Maeda said, “but I felt like I was 100% prepared going in.”
Altuve came out swinging. He swung and missed on the first pitch. He took two balls, hit a loud foul, took a third ball, hit another loud foul. He was swinging hard, he had Maeda timed, and every pitch was in the 85-87 mph range.
1/35
Astros Alex Bregman is mobbed by teamates after hitting the game winner aginst the Dodgers in the 10th inning.
(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times) 2/35
Astros celebrate a tenth inning win over the Dodgers in game 5.
(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times) 3/35
Astros celebrate a tenth inning 13-12 win over the Dodgers in game 5.
(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times) 4/35
Astros Brian McCann celebrates with pinch runner Derek Fisher to beat the Dodgers
(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times) 5/35
Astros Alex Bregman gets the game-winning hit against the Dodgers in the 10th inning.
(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times) 6/35
Astros Brian McCann holds his wrist in pain after being hit by a pitch from Dodgers reliever Kenley Jansen in the 10th inning.
(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times) 7/35
Dodgers Yasiel Puig hits a two-run home run in the 9th inning.
(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times) 8/35
Cody Bellinger snags a foul ball from the stands in the ninth inning.
(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times) 9/35
There is a lot of numbers on the Minute Maid Park scoreboard,
(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times) 10/35
Dodgers pitcher Brandon Morrow sits in the dugout alone after giving up the lead in the 7th inning.
(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times) 11/35
Clayton Kershaw walks back to the dugout after giving up four runs to the Astros in the fifth inning of Game 5 of the 2017 World Series.
(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times) 12/35
Kenley Jansen meets at the mound with pitching coach Rick Honeycutt in the tenth inning.
(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times) 13/35
Justin Turner is tagged out at 3rd base on a failed sacrafice bunt form Kiki Hernandez in the seventh inning.
(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times ) 14/35
Carlos Correa hits a two-run home run against the Dodgers in the seventh inning.
(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times) 15/35
George Springer crosses the plate ahead of Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve, who homered off of the Dodgers’ Kenta Maeda in the fifth inning.
(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times) 16/35
Carlos Correa of the Astros celebrates after hitsing a two-run home run in the seventh inning.
(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times) 17/35
Carlos Correa celebrates his two-run home run with Astros teammate Jose Altuve, right, in the 7th inning.
(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times) 18/35
Carlos Correa of the Astros reacts after hitting a two-run home run during the seventh inning.
(Christian Petersen / Getty Images) 19/35
Jose Altuve hits a three-run homer off Dodgers reliever Kenta Maeda in the fifth inning.
(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times) 20/35
The Astros’ George Springer can’t come up with a ball hit by the Dodgers’ Cody Bellinger during the seventh inning.
(Eric Gay / AP) 21/35
Alex Bregman of the Astros tags out Justin Turner of the Dodgers at third base during the seventh inning.
(Bob Levey / Getty Images) 22/35
Yuli Gurriel is swarmed by Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa after hitting a three-run homer off of Dogers starter Clayton Kershaw in the fourth inning.
(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times) 23/35
Kenta Maeda reacts after Jose Altuve hit a three-run homer in the fifth inning.
(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times) 24/35
George Springer crosses the plate ahead of Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve, who homered off Kenta Maeda in the fifth inning.
(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times) 25/35
Cody Bellinger celebrates his home run in the fifth inning of Game 5 of the World Series.
(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times) 26/35
The Dodgers’ Cody Bellinger hits a three-run homer in the fifth inning.
(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times) 27/35
Clayton Kershaw gives up a three-run home run to the Astros’ Yuli Gurriel in the fourth inning.
(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times) 28/35
Cody Bellinger hits a three-run home run against the Astros in the fifth inning.
(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times) 29/35
Logan Forsythe scores during the fourth inning.
(Christian Petersen / Getty Images) 30/35
Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve can’t get a glove on a hit by the Dodgers’ Charlie Culberson during the fourth inning of Game 5.
(Charlie Riedel / Associated Press) 31/35
Logan Forsythe is safe at second base on a steal as Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve holds up the ball.
(TANNEN MAURY / EPA) 32/35
Clayton Kershaw pitches during the first inning of Game 5.
(Pool / Getty Images) 33/35
Former United States Presidents George W. Bush and George H.W. Bush speak to the crowd before Game 5.
(Pool / Getty Images) 34/35
Dodgers fan Edward Santos, whose family is from the Philippines, sports a jersey with the phrase “Icanmakerice” before Game 5.
(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times) 35/35
Dodgers starting pitcher sits alone in the outfield before the start of Game 5 at Minute Maid Park in Houston. (Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)
Maeda threw the next pitch as hard as he could, but terribly and unfortunately straight. The pitch was clocked at 94 mph. Altuve crushed it, 415 feet worth of Mighty Mite power. The Astros had tied the score 7-7, and completed their second comeback in two innings against the mighty Kershaw.
In Japan, Maeda had made 218 appearances, with 217 coming as a starter. His first 45 appearances with the Dodgers — three of them in last year’s playoffs — also came as a starter.
In June, however, with the Dodgers juggling an overload of starters, they tried Maeda twice in relief. It worked well enough that the Dodgers decided to try it again in October.
He had been a revelation. The Dodgers used him five times in the first two rounds of the playoffs, for an inning each time. He was perfect: 15 up, 15 down, seven strikeouts. The Dodgers dared to expand his workload in the World Series, and it worked just fine until Sunday.
In Game 2, he worked 11/3 innings, not perfect but still scoreless. In Game 3, he worked 22/3 innings, not perfect but still scoreless.
His postseason earned-run average remained at 0.00, but he threw 42 pitches in Game 3. That was more pitches than he had thrown in the first two rounds of the playoffs, combined.
“As a reliever, it’s hard to be 100% fresh,” Maeda said, “because you do have to prepare every day.”
He might have been worn down. He said he would be ready for Game 6. But all we know for sure is that his postseason ERA is no longer zero, and the Dodgers’ tragic number for elimination is one.
The Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2017 World Series
bill.shaikin@latimes.com
Follow Bill Shaikin on Twitter @BillShaikin