Racing! Los Al returns to racing as we remember those lost in the fire

Hello, my name is John Cherwa, and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as life goes on despite Thursday’s tragedy.

Los Alamitos Futurity preview

As a preview to Saturday’s Los Alamitos Cash Call Futurity we look at McKinzie, both the horse and the man. Brad McKinzie was an extraordinary person who will be greatly missed at Los Alamitos. McKinzie, the horse, could be the real deal. We look at how the two intersect in an uplifting story on a weekend such as this. (Click here to read.)

More on the San Luis Rey Downs fire

It will be a while before the full extent of the damage at San Luis Rey Downs is known. On Friday, trainers were searching for their horses, many of which were cut loose to escape the fire. Some didn’t make it. More on the day after this tragic incident. (Click here to read.)

The Answerman is in the house

If you have questions you would like answered, just drop us a line. They can be simple or they can be complex, although not too complex. Just things you’ve always wondered about but didn’t know the answer. Here are this week’s questions:

Here’s a question from Andy Mosley:

“What factors contribute to making the morning line? And, how does the linemaker come up with a figure for a horse which last ran in someone's back yard in Idaho?”

Well, there is no better person to answer that than the Santa Anita morning-line oddsmaker (and California steward) Jon White. So, take it away Jon.

“I am sure that this question would be answered differently by every different person who makes a morning line. Speaking for myself at Santa Anita, I take into account every single factor that I believe may ultimately affect a horse's final odds. Remember, the goal when making a morning line is to predict, within close range, what a horse's final odds are going to be.

“If there is a dominant jockey at a track, such as at a Northern California track when Russell Baze was the king of that circuit, it would behoove a person making the morning line to lower the odds to some extent for any horse Baze would be riding.

“Similarly, I typically will lower the morning line odds to some degree if a horse has a hot jockey and/or trainer. These days in Southern California, a horse trained by Bob Baffert almost always is going to get a lot of respect from bettors. A horse's morning line odds will reflect this to some degree. Conversely, if a horse has what often is referred to as a a “low profile” jockey and/or trainer, I probably will make a horse's odds higher than if, say, Baffert was the trainer.

“Now, if a horse running at Santa Anita last raced at a track in Idaho, or a track similar to that, I generally first will look at what the horse has done in Idaho and all of other tracks the horse has raced at. A horse to have done well in stakes races in Idaho might do OK in the lower-level claiming races at Santa Anita, but certainly not in stakes races or probably even high-level claiming races. Next, I would look at the horse's speed figures. Do these speed figures compare favorably with the others in this race?

“Then I would look at the trainer. The trainer of a horse always is important, but it's especially so in a situation like this. Is it a trainer who in the past has had success shipping a horse to Santa Anita or any major track from Idaho or someone else? I also would look at the horse's workouts, particularly any workouts in California. Is this a horse with early speed in a race without much early speed? If so, that certainly would help the horse's chances. These are but some of the factors that I would ponder before determining the morning-line odds for the horse.

“By the way, let me take this opportunity to say that while it is still called the ‘morning line,’ this term now actually is misleading. When the morning line began many moons ago, it was made in the ‘morning’ on race day, hence the name ‘morning line.’ But, in time, a change was made for the morning line to be made at least the day before race day in order for the track's programs to be printed earlier.

“And now, for the most part, it is made at least two days before race day. Certainly a person making a morning line is able to do a better job when it is made in the morning on race day, after scratches for a race are known (which affects pace, among other things) and when the day's track and weather conditions are known. In reality, the ‘morning line’ now is an ‘advance line,’ made well in advance of race day.”

Thanks, Jon. As always a thorough and cerebral analysis of the situation. It’s why he’s one of my go-to guys.

And one more question, this one from Henry Ortiz:

“When we see the odds on the board, do they reflect the local track odds or are they from everywhere on earth? Do they include all the off-track betting places across the USA?”

My several-years quest to actually talk to the mutuel manager at Santa Anita grows longer, (what is he afraid of?) so Mike Willman, the media czar at Santa Anita, took up the call, succinctly.

“The odds on the board reflect all monies bet. Unfortunately, the odds change during the running of many races as money from remote places. But, in the end, those odds represent the total pool.”

Thanks, Mike.

We’ve got more questions on the runway, but if you’ve got one, the door is open at johnacherwa@gmail.com

Los Alamitos is listening

This bulletin just in from Los Alamitos. They heard you and they listened.

“In response to some of the sound issues fans have mentioned in recent days, Los Alamitos Race Course did have a sound amplifier that stopped working recently in the grandstand level,” said Orlando Gutierrez, the track’s marketing and media guru. “This week, Los Alamitos staff replaced not only that amplifier, but also an amplifier in the upper level of the grandstand and as a result fans should find better sound quality throughout the plant. In addition, Los Alamitos staff also installed several new speakers on the main line level of the grandstand and also in the clubhouse. Additional speakers will be installed in the upcoming weeks.”

There you have it. Power of the newsletter.

Los Alamitos preview

If you want to know more about the Los Alamitos Cash Call Futurity, again, we turn your attention to the story on McKinzie. Here is where you can find it if you missed it up top. (Just click here.)

Dream Tree, who has won both her starts, is the 8-5 favorite in the Grade 1 $300,000 Starlet Stakes for 2 year olds. It’s also a qualifying race for the Kentucky Oaks. The filly is trained by Baffert and ridden by Drayden Van Dyke. The second favorite, at 5-2, is Piedi Bianchi. She was fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. She runs for Doug O’Neill and will have Kyle Frey aboard.

The two featured races are the third and fourth races because there are only five entrants in each and the track wanted fuller fields for the late pick four and pick six.

Even I’m getting sick of me

If you want to hear more about the newsletter, I’m on with Patrick McQuiggan on his Vegas Track Talk show about 7:45 a.m. this morning. And, I’ll be out at Los Alamitos to be on the pre-show on the Vessels Veranda with Ed Burgart about 11:30 a.m. Just look for the really handsome guy. I’ll be sitting next to him. Come by and say hi.

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

11:00 $100,000 Maryland Juvenile Futurity, 2 year olds, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Clever Mind (7-5)

11:39 Gulfstream $125,000 Lady Caribbean Cup Stakes, fillies 3 years old, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Lady Valery (8-5)

12:00 Laurel: $100,000 Willa On The Move Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Ivy Bell (3-1)

12:09 Gulfstream: $100,000 Confraternity Caribbean Cub Stakes, 3 and up, 1 ¼ miles. Favorite: Igor (3-1)

12:30 Laurel: $100,000 Maryland Juvenile Filly Championship, fillies 2 years old, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Freschette (4-1)

12:39 Gulfstream: $115,000 Caribbean Cup Speed Stakes, 3 years old, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Crotone (6-5)

12:47 Aqueduct: $100,000 Garland Of Roses Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Quezon (9-5)

1:05 Fair Grounds: $100,000 Louisiana Champions Day Lassie Stakes, fillies 2 years old, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Minit To Stardom (5-2)

1:26 Woodbine: $125,000 Kingarvie Stakes, 2 year olds, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Be Vewy Vewy Quiet (2-1).

1:28 Los Alamitos: Grade 1 $300,000 Los Alamitos Cash Call Futurity, 2 years old, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: McKinzie (6-5).

1:35 Fair Grounds: $100,000 Louisiana Champions Day Ladies Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorites: Inveniam Viam (5-2)

1:45 Gulfstream: $300,000 Caribbean Classic Stakes, 3 year olds, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: El Cubita (3-1)

1:58 Los Alamitos: Grade 1 $300,000 Starlets Stakes, fillies 2 years old, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Dream Tree (8-5)

2:35 Fair Grounds: $100,000 Louisiana Champions Day Turf Stakes, 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles on the turf. Favorite: Trust Factor (8-5)

3:05 Fair Grounds: $100,000 Louisiana Champions Day Juvenile Stakes, 2 year olds, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Divine Bean (7-2)

3:35 Fair Grounds: $150,000 Louisiana Champions Day Classic, 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Mobile Bay (5-2)

4:05 Fair Grounds: $100,000 Louisiana Champions Day Sprint Stakes, 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Joclamo’s Song (5-2)

4:35 Fair Grounds: $100,000 Louisiana Champions Day Ladies Sprint Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: My Miss Chiff (9-5)

Mark Ratzky’s LRC pick of the day

SIXTH RACE: No. 7 Big Hunk (5-2)

His appearance came a month ago vs. straight maidens on the Del Mar turf and now Michael McCarthy drops him into a claimer with Van Dyke back at the controls. It looks like the money run.

Mark Ratzky worked for 22 years for the Daily Racing Form and has been the simulcast announcer/publicity at Los Alamitos for the past 19 years.

Ed Burgart’s LA pick of the day

SEVENTH RACE: Covington (7-2)

He was loaded with run past the wire after getting bumped back sharply when away slow in last rough trip. Gelding gets reunited with jockey Carlos Huerta wo was aboard for 1 ¼ maiden win.

Final thought

Still looking to jump the circulation of this newsletter. Can’t beat the price. If you like it, tell someone. If you don’t like it, then you’re probably not reading this. Either way, send to a friend and just have them click here and sign up. Remember, it’s free, and all we need is your email, nothing more.

Any thoughts, drop me an email at johnacherwa@gmail.com or feed my ego by following me on Twitter @jcherwa

And now Saturday’s entries.