Racing! Another handicapping lesson from Rob Henie

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we were happy that Justify got a great sendoff at Del Mar.

A big crowd showed up at Del Mar on Saturday, not so much for the Bing Crosby Stakes, although certainly some did, but to see the final race track appearance of Triple Crown winner Justify. There was little room to be had given the crush of people when he came through the tunnel from the barns and into the paddock.

The adulation continued when he was paraded on the track. WinStar owner Kenny Troutt and CEO Elliott Walden came in from Kentucky for the moment. And, of course, trainer Bob Baffert was front and center.

Justify is the only undefeated Triple Crown winner but he also only ran six races, all within a span of 112 days. We’ll never know how good he could be although Baffert said on Friday that he was getting “better and better and better.”

With so few races, some will question his legacy, something his connections dismiss.

“You could just feel the excitement from the people who came to see him run,” Baffert said. “He got everybody’s juices flowing. It was like Elvis is in the building. Now he’s going to be missed.

“But his legacy is he’s a Triple Crown winner. No. 13.”

Walden, who headed the ownership group and acted as its chief spokesman, put it this way.

“His legacy should be that he did things that no other horse has ever done,” Walden said. “He broke the Apollo curse [an unraced 2-year-old winning the Kentucky Derby]. He did it all in a short period of time. I don’t really pick and choose between Triple Crown winners. If you analyze things from a handicapping standpoint, five of his six Beyers [speed figures] were over 100. His fractions [were great], he just did incredible things.”

He heads to WinStar on a Tuesday night flight.

Baffert is already reloading. Chasing Yesterday, a 2-year-old filly who is a half-sister to Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, made an impressive debut winning by 4 ¼ in a 5 ½ furlong maiden race. Eric (Manny) Sondheimer was there and here’s his report on that race. Just click here.

Weekly handicapping lesson

Here’s our weekly contribution from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). The thinking is if you can know and understand the strategies, it will make you a better handicapper.

Today’s lesson is from the ninth race at Del Mar. The floor is yours, Rob.

“An optional claimer at a mile on the turf to end the day. We’ll look at intentions here with top pick DRIZZY (#9). As we often point out, when we can decipher and understand what a barn is thinking with the placement, it gives us a much better view with regard to whether the horse needs the race, or, is the runner well meant? Take a look at this one. They gave him an effort on the sod last time out coming down the hill, running super, getting his final 2 ½ furlongs in 28.1 seconds, super strong. Off that effort the light bulb goes off with the connections, realizing the slightly longer distance on the turf could be ideal, so why freshen for Del Mar, give the two turns, while giving Drayden Van Dyke a leg up. Very well meant today. SAVE GROUND (#4) may have been ready to fire last month off the brief layoff, but it’s likely even more so today, stringing races together for the first time since January, telling us good health is creeping back into the picture, and we love that super slow 1:19.4 drill last time out, telling us they needed nothing from him except to open up his lungs a bit, giving him some time on the track while awaiting this next start which comes right on schedule.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 9-4

“Positive Notes:

“8 Satori - They get the maiden win, and now, send long on the sod, thus, at least there’s a plan in place, likely even before he left the maiden ranks.

“Negative Notes:

“10 Senator Robert - Plodding style, likely better served over a longer more methodical distance than a flat mile.

“TOP PICK: DRIZZY (#9 6-1 Van Dyke) $ Suggested Win Wager

“SECOND CHOICE: SAVE GROUND (#4 7-2 Gutierrez) $ Suggested Win Wager”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at https://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Del Mar review

In a repeat of last year’s Grade 1 $300,000 Bing Crosby Stakes, Ransom the Moon and Roy H finished one-two in the six-furlong race. Ransom the Moon seemed to be languishing near the back of the pack, but mid-turn he started gathering momentum and sailed to a clear victory of 2 ¼ lengths.

It was Flavien Prat’s second stakes win of the day. Ransom the Moon, trained by Phil D’Amato paid $11.60, $5.00 and $3.80. Touching Rainbows was third. The win also gave Ransom the Moon and automatic entry into the Breeders’ Cup Sprint in November at Churchill Downs.

“I was thinking I was riding this horse up too close,” Prat said. “I might have been taking his kick away from him. So today I went a different way. We had a big field and I knew there would be some pace, so I sat back with him. Then he came running. I had a lot of horse.”

D’Amato was clearly delighted with the win.

“This horse beat this field on the square,” D’Amato said. “Roy H is a great horse, hats off to him. But my horse, since I gave him a freshening a while back he has kind of become the horse of old…. By the time they hit the top of the lane I thought Ransom the Moon was going to run them down.”

In Prat’s first stakes win of the day, he guided Fly to Mars to a one-length victory in the $150,000 California Dreamin’ Stakes for Cal-breds going 1 1/16 miles on the turf. Fly to Mars set nicely off the pace for most of the race and then roared by Pee Wee Reese in the stretch.

Fly to Mars, trained by Peter Miller, paid $11.20, $5.80 and $4.80. Grecian Fire was second and B Squared was third.

“We got a good spot right away,” Prat said. “When he switched leads for me at the head of the stretch, he gave me a great turn of foot. He fired.”

Even Miller seemed a bit surprised at horse’s strong effort.

“Wow, unbelievable, I’m shocked.” Miller said. “The horse has really gotten good in the past two months, since we took the blinkers off and have been getting him to relax. I’ve got to say Flavien rode an unbelievable race. The pace was good, but it wasn’t crazy and he really kicked home.”

His time of 1:39.50 was a track record at this distance.

Del Mar preview

Another nice card at Del Mar on Sunday, with two stakes races including a Grade 1. First post for the nine races is 2 p.m.

The feature is the Grade 1 $300,000 Clement L. Hirsch Stakes going 1 1/16 miles for fillies and mares. All the attention will be on Unique Bella, who was installed as the 2-5 favorite. Purchased for a mere $400,000 she has won eight of 11 races including two Grade 1s. She won three of her last four and eight of her last 10. Her last race was a win in the Beholder Mile at Santa Anita. Mike Smith rides the Jerry Hollendorfer filly.

The second favorite is La Force at 5-1. She is two of 20 lifetime. Post time will be about 4 p.m.

The second stakes is the $150,000 Fleet Treat Stakes for 3-year-old Cal-bred fillies going seven furlongs. One of our favorites is Spiced Perfection, who is at 3-1, because the ownership group, Dare to Dream Stable, includes Mike Tierney. Mike contributes to the Times horse racing coverage among other things. Spiced Perfection has only been off the board once in nine races. She’s won three times. Joe Talamo rides the horse for Brian Koriner.

Loving Lynda is at 4-1. This D’Amato filly is lightly raced, making just her fourth start. She won her last two races. Post time is about 5:30 p.m.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 7, 10 (4 also eligible), 8, 10 (4 AE), 6, 10 (2 AE), 11 (3 AE), 8, 12 (1 AE). The second, fourth, seventh and ninth races are on the turf.

Big Races review

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Saturday.

Woodbine: Grade 1 $100,000 King Corrie Stakes, 3-year-olds, 6 furlongs. Winner: Wyatt’s Town ($3.30)

Saratoga: Grade 3 $200,000 Amsterdam Stakes, 3-year-olds, 6 ½ furlongs. Winner: Promises Fulfilled ($5.00)

Woodbine: $100,000 Toronto Cup Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles on turf. Winner: March to the Arch ($7.70)

Saratoga: Grade 1 $350,000 Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap, 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Winner: Imperial Hint ($3.60)

Saratoga: Grade 2 $250,000 Bowling Green Stakes, 4 and up, 1 3/8 miles on turf. Winners: Glorious Empire ($21.40) and Channel Maker ($7.40)

Saratoga: Grade 2 $600,000 Jim Dandy Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles. Winner: Tenfold ($5.50)

Del Mar: $150,000 California Dreamin’ Stakes, Cal-breds 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Winner: Fly to Mars ($11.20)

Del Mar: Grade 1 $300,000 Bing Crosby Stakes, 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Winner: Ransom the Moon ($11.60)

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Sunday. All times PDT:

11:56 Monmouth: Grade 3 $100,000 Oceanport Stakes, 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Favorite: Synchrony (5-2)

12:28 Monmouth: Grade 3 $150,000 Monmouth Cup Stakes, 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Page McKenney (9-5)

1:05 Monmouth: Grade 3 $100,000 Matchmaker Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles on turf. Favorite: Dream Awhile (2-1)

1:15 Woodbine: Grade 2 $175,000 Royal North Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 6 furlongs on the turf. Favorite: Lull (5-2)

1:36 Monmouth: Grade 3 $100,000 Molly Pitcher Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Divine Miss Grey (5-2)

2:40 Saratoga: Grade 3 $200,000 Shuvee Handicap, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Wow Cat (8-5)

2:45 Monmouth: Grade 1 $1 million Haskell Invitational, 3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Good Magic (6-5)

3:00 Woodbine: Grade 3 $125,000 Vigil Stakes, 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Pink Lloyd (3-5)

4:00 Del Mar: Grade 1 $300,000 Clement L. Hirsch Stakes, 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Unique Bella (2-5)

5:30 Del Mar: $150,000 Fleet Treat Stakes, Cal-bred fillies 3-years-old, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Spiced Perfection (3-1)

Bob Ike’s DMR pick of the day

SIXTH RACE: No. 10 Jefe (7-2)

Juvenile colt from Keith Desormeaux stable finished full of run in his debut while closing from last over a speed-biased track and should be ready to show his best today. Drawn favorably outside with a race under his belt and an extra furlong to work with, look for a big effort in this spot.

Saturday’s result: Fly to Mars ($11.20) sat the perfect trip and ran by the favorite to win nicely under perfect Flavien Prat handling.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here's a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ed Burgart LA play of the day

FIRST RACE: No. 2 The Tattoo Kid (5-2)

In a field void of early speed, I like the chances of The Tattoo Kid to upset the heavy favorite North Run, who has lacked early zip in last three runnerup tries. In The Tattoo Kid’s last sixth-place try over the local one-mile day surface, he forced the pace vs. much stronger and lands high-percentage distance rider Vinnie Bednar, who is especially effective on front runners.

Final thoughts

Always looking to add more subscribers to this newsletter. Can’t beat the price. If you like it, tell someone. If you don’t like it, then you’re probably not reading this. Either way, send to a friend and just have them click here and sign up. Remember, it’s free, and all we need is your email, nothing more.

Any thoughts, don’t hit reply as I won’t see that email, instead you can reach me at johnacherwa@gmail.com. You can also feed my ego by following me on Twitter @jcherwa

And now the stars of the show, Saturday’s results and Sunday’s entries.

CHASING YESTERDAY had speed off the rail then outside the runner-up, stalked just off the rail leaving the backstretch, bid outside that one again on the turn, took the lead in upper stretch, inched away in midstretch and won clear under a couple left handed taps of the whip and steady handling then a long hold late. HONEYFROMTHESOUTH a step slow into stride, went up inside to duel for the lead then inched away leaving the backstretch, fought back inside the winner on the turn and into the stretch, was not a match for that one in the final furlong but clearly second best. CULVER MISS also a bit slow to begin, saved ground chasing the pace, came out a bit into the stretch, then angled in and held third. SCARLET between foes early, chased off the rail then outside a rival on the turn, came out into the stretch and was edged for the show. LILY CON chased a bit off the rail, angled in on the turn and weakened. POINT RECEIVED stalked just off the rail then outside a rival, dropped back on the turn and gave way. WHIFF OF INTRIGUE dropped back off the inside early, came a bit wide into the stretch and had little left for the drive.

GREAT RETURN hopped at the start, chased off the rail then angled in leaving the backstretch, saved ground on the turn, came out in upper stretch and again past midstretch and rallied under urging to the front three wide in deep stretch to prove best. STORMING LADY angled in and dueled inside, fought back along the rail in the stretch and held second. TOKEN VOW broke in and bumped a rival, was three deep early then chased a bit off the rail, came out in upper stretch and finished well. SUSPICIOUS SPOUSE angled in and dueled outside a rival, put a head in front in the stretch, fought back in deep stretch and was edged for third.. SMART DORIE saved ground stalking the pace, came out in upper stretch and was outfinished. SCREENSHOT chased inside, came off the rail past midstretch and lacked the needed rally. SOCIAL ETIQUETTE between horses early, stalked outside a rival, came out some in the drive and could not offer the necessary response. DASHING DEBUT bumped and squeezed some at the start, settled a bit off the rail then outside a rival, split horses leaving the turn and did not rally. K P'S SMOKIN broke slowly, settled just off the rail, went outside on the turn and three deep leaving the turn, came four wide into the stretch and was not a threat. GRANDMA GERTRUDE hopped at the start, chased outside then alongside a rival on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and weakened.

KOCHEES stalked a bit off the rail, bid between horses on the turn and into the stretch, took a short lead outside a rival in midstretch and inched clear under urging late. VERY VERY STELLA bobbled some at the start, stalked outside the winner then bid three deep on the turn and into the stretch, could not match that one in the final furlong but bested the others. AWESOME ANYWHERE pulled a bit between horses early, stalked outside a rival, came out into the stretch and gained the show. TAVASCO ROAD sped to the early lead a bit off the rail, inched away and angled in, set the pace inside, fought back along the fence on the turn and in the stretch and lost third late. MIDNIGHT DESTINY broke slowly, steadied at the gap, chased inside, came out leaving the turn, swung out into the stretch and did not rally. PURE COMEDY in a bit tight off heels at the gap, saved ground stalking the pace, came out in the stretch and weakened.

KERSHAW dueled three deep, kicked clear and angled in some on the turn and drew off under urging then steady handling late. GIT ON YOUR PULPIT bobbled some at the start, was taken off the rail to chase the pace, went three deep leaving the turn and into the stretch drifted in some and held second between foes late. BANK WALKER saved ground off the pace, came out into the stretch, went around a rival in midstretch then angled back to the inside and was edged for the place. SEVENTH WAVE chased between horses then off the rail, angled in on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and was edged for third. IMAGINEIAMFASTEST dueled between horses, stalked a bit off the rail leaving the turn and weakened in the final furlong. WHEN JESUS WALKED chased outside then five wide into the turn, came four wide into the stretch and lacked a rally. VIOLENT AFFAIR stumbled at the start, dropped back off the rail, came three wide into the stretch and was not a threat. CALIFORNIA KING chased off the rail, angled in some on the turn and lacked a response in the drive. CAMP COUNSELOR had good early speed and dueled inside, stalked along the rail on the turn and had little left for the stretch.

TERRYS TOM CAT stalked between horses then a bit off the rail, went between foes again into and on the second turn and three deep into the stretch, came out in the drive and rallied under urging to get up three wide on the line. DREAMS OF VALOR sped to the early lead and angled in, set the pace inside, kicked clear in the stretch, drifted out a bit from the whip past midstretch and held on well but was edged on the wire. FORCE (IRE) saved ground chasing the pace, waited inside leaving the second turn, came out in upper stretch, angled out off heels again in midstretch, split rivals in deep stretch and surged between foes late. AVALANCHE stalked three deep then outside a rival, continued outside on the second turn and three wide into the stretch and finished willingly. COMMA SISTER pulled some between horses early, stalked three deep, came four wide into the stretch and was outfinished. MALIBU MUSIC saved ground off the pace, came out into the second turn, went three deep on that turn and four wide into the stretch and found his best stride late. STREET MOXIE stalked the pace inside, continued along the rail on the second turn and into the stretch and could not quite summon the needed late kick./. COOL GREEN stalked outside a rival, came three wide into the stretch and weakened late. POPYHOWUSPELCUPCAK broke a bit slowly, settled outside a rival, split horses in midstretch and lacked the needed rally. THE BIG TRAIN also a bit slow to begin, chased outside a rival then inside to the stretch, continued along the ail and also lacked a rally. ALLABOUTMIKE close up stalking the pace a bit off the rail, was between horses in midstretch and weakened in the final furlong.

BOLD FANTASY stalked outside, moved up four wide on the turn, bit three deep into the stretch to gain the lead in upper stretch and drew clear under urging. RINSE AND REPEAT settled inside then a bit off the rail, went outside a rival on the turn and four wide into the stretch and got up late for the place. TOUGH BUT NICE saved ground stalking the pace, bid inside on the turn to gain the lead a quarter mile out, fought back in upper stretch, could not match the winner in the final furlong and just lost second. TANNERS PRIDE stalked outside a rival then off the rail, continued a bit off the fence on the turn and into the stretch and was edged for third. JOE JACKSON was in a good position staking the pace a but off the rail then inside into and on the turn, came out some in the stretch and lacked a rally. GROUND ATTACK broke slowly, settled off the rail then inside on the turn, came out in the stretch and improved position. JAY MAKES US LAUGH dueled between horses then three deep midway on the turn, continued three wide into the stretch and weakened. MINISTER OF SOUL had good early speed and dueled a bit off the rail then between foes on the turn and also weakened. CAIIFORNIA CLONE chased between horses then dropped back outside a rival leaving the backstretch, continued off the rail on the turn and had little left for the drive. SCHULACE pressed the pace three deep then stalked outside on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and gave way.

FLY TO MARS stalked off the rail, bid outside the pacesetter in the stretch to gain the lead, inched away under urging and held gamely. GRECIAN FIRE saved ground stalking the pace, split horses past midstretch and edged rival for the place. B SQUARED three deep leaving the chute, stalked thee pace off the inside, came three wide into the stretch and finished willingly. CAMINO DEL PARAISO broke a bit slowly, settled inside, went outside a rival on the second turn and three deep into the stretch and found his best stride late. WHAT A VIEW bobbled at the start, saved ground chasing the pace, came out into the stretch and was outfinished. ASHLEYLUVSSUGAR a bit crowded at the start, chased between horses then three deep to the stretch and lacked the needed rally. PEE WEE REESE sped to the early lead, set the pace inside, fought back when challenged in the stretch and weakened late. WELL DEVELOPED four wide leaving the chute, angled in and stalked outside a rival, came out four wide into the stretch and lacked a rally. ACCOUNTABILITY three deep then four wide on the first turn, chased three deep, angled in outside a rival entering the stretch and lacked the needed late kick. WARD 'N JERRY five wide leaving the chute, went four wide into the first turn, angled in outside a rival then found the rail on the backstretch and second turn and did not rally. ALSATIAN stalked between horses, continued between foes on the second turn and weakened in the drive.

BROOME set a pressured pace then inched away into the turn, kicked clear and proved best under some urging. TOPAZ TIME pressed the pace four wide then stalked on the turn, angled in off the rail nearing the stretch and held second. NEON GYPSY chased outside then three deep on the backstretch and turn, came four wide into the stretch and was edged for the place. PULPITINTHESKY dueled between horses then stalked a bit off the rail on the turn and weakened. CALIMONCO ACTION settled off the rail then outside on the turn and five wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. SWALLOWS INN GAL chased outside a rival then between foes leaving the backstretch, dropped back on the turn and was not a threat. INNYMINNIEMINEYMOE broke out a bit and steadied, angled in and saved ground chasing the pace and did not rally. YALLA prompted the pace three deep between foes, stalked on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and weakened. SMART RACHEL bobbled some at the start, chased a bit off the rail then between foes or outside a rival on the turn, angled to the inside entering the stretch and did not rally. CLEAN LIVING stalked inside, came out on the turn and into the stretch and weakened. MILLIE JOEL broke in the air and slowly, settled outside then three deep to the stretch and was not a threat.

RANSOM THE MOON chased a bit off the rail, came out leaving the turn and five wide into the stretch, angled out in upper stretch, rallied under urging then had the rider lose the whip nearing the sixteenth pole while gaining the lead and won clear. ROY H stalked outside a rival then off the rail on the turn, came four wide into the stretch, drifted out a bit from the whip in midstretch and edged foes for the place. TOUCHING RAINBOWS close up stalking the pace off the rail, came three deep into the stretch and was edged for second. EDWARDS GOING LEFT a bit slow into stride, chased outside then four wide on the turn and five wide into the stretch, was a bit crowded in midstretch and was edged for the show. ST. JOE BAY angled in and dueled outside a rival, inched away in the stretch, could not match the winner in the final sixteenth and was outfinished for a minor award. AMERICAN ANTHEM chased outside a rival then three deep on the backstretch and between horses on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. STALLWALKIN' DUDE wide early, angled in and chased a bit off the rail to the stretch and did not rally. STONE HANDS bobbled some at the start, was between foes early then chased a bit off the rail, split horses into the turn, continued just off the inside and lacked the necessary response. ANNIE'S CANDY saved ground stalking the pace, continued inside on the turn and into the stretch and weakened. AMERICAN PASTIME had good early speed and dueled inside, fought back on the turn and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. TRIBAL STORM settled three deep then off the rail, came three wide into the stretch and had little left for the drive. The stewards conducted an inquiry into the stretch run between the second and fourth finishers but made no changed when they ruled the incident in midstretch did not alter the original order of finish.

FORLOVEOFCOUNTRY steadied between horses on the first turn, chased outside a rival then inside on the second turn and into the stretch and rallied under urging along the rail to get up late. ALLEVA angled in and set the pace inside then dueled along the rail, came a bit off the fence in the stretch and was caught outside the winner late. KING OF SPEED angled in on the first turn and chased inside, came out some in the stretch and went on willingly between foes late. OCEAN FURY angled in early, was in tight on the first turn then came out, went between foes then bid three deep leaving the backstretch, stalked again leaving the second turn and finished with interest. MORE ICE saved ground chasing the pace, split horses leaving the second turn and was outfinished. TARIQ angled in and stalked outside a rival then bid outside the runner-up to duel for the lead, fought back in the stretch and weakened late. ORACLE OF OMAHA chased three deep then outside a rival, angled in on the second turn, came a bit off the rail in the stretch and lacked the needed rally. BIZ NASTY chased between horses then a bit off the rail on the second turn and lacked the needed response in the drive. FORT DODGE settled outside a rival then three deep, angled in a bit off the rail into the stretch and lacked a further response. SALTARIN stalked three deep to the stretch and weakened. AFTER YOU broke a bit slowly, settled inside, came out on the second turn and three wide into the stretch and was not a threat. WILT settled inside then outside a rival, continued a bit off the rail on the second turn and had no further response.