Racing! One Breeders’ Cup day down, the big one to come

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we get to lots of things at Churchill Downs and Santa Anita and a handicapping lesson from Rob Henie.

Before we get to the Breeders’ Cup, apologies are in order for getting the Friday newsletter out late. Sometimes we have technical problems and that’s what happened. Thanks to all of you who emailed me asking where it was. Good to know we are part of your daily routine.

OK, on to Day 1 of the Breeders’ Cup. (Forgive any typos as the hands are shaking from being in the coldest 40 degrees I’ve been in for a while.)

Juvenile Turf Sprint: Bulletin shot out of the gate and was never headed in winning the 5 ½ furlong race by 2 ¾ lengths. The turf course was listed as good but the two days of rain may have affected the ability of some horses to make up ground making it easy for Bulletin to win. He paid $10.60 to win. Chelsea Cloisters was second and So Perfect was third. “Fantastic way to start,” said winning trainer Todd Pletcher. “He broke really well and was sharp. He took it to them the whole way. It was a big race. We wanted to leave there running. He finished up nicely.” Javier Castellano was the winning jockey.

Juvenile Fillies Turf: Remember what we said about getting the lead in Friday’s turf races? Well, Newspaperofrecord went to front and stayed there to win the one-mile race by 6 3/4 lengths. Only in this case, it was clear Newspaperofrecord was the best horse. He paid $3.20 to win. East was second and Stellar Agent was third. It was trainer Chad Brown’s third straight win in this race. “I got a perfect trip,” said winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. “She broke good and pulled me to the lead. I just held her together and she relaxed. When I asked her, she exploded for home. It was the easiest Breeders’ Cup I ever won.” (Note to readers: The filly didn’t actually explode, otherwise the tone of this newsletter would be much different. The filly is fine.)

Juvenile Fillies: Trainer Simon Callaghan had called Bellafina the best filly he’s ever trained. On Friday, there were three better than her. Jaywalk won her fourth in a row in a gate-to-wire performance. The winning margin was 5 1/2. Bellafina had no excuses sitting off a fast pace but when Flavien Prat asked her in the stretch she really had nothing to give. Jaywalk paid $13.00 to win for trainer John Servis and jockey Joel Rosario. Restless Rider was second and Vibrance, for trainer Mike McCarthy, was third. There were two other Southern California horses in the race, Splashy Kisses (eighth) and Reflect (ninth).

“I had a good trip, but she never did feel quite right,” Prat said. “She wasn’t running smooth. I don’t know if she didn’t like the track or if it was an off day.” Callaghan was also searching for answers. “She broke a little flat footed and the rider had to use her a little bit early,” Callaghan said. “After that she had a pretty good trip but it just did not seem to happen today. It’s hard to know [about the surface]. It is the first time she has run over this sort of track.”

Juvenile Turf: This race made you feel like you were back in California with an interminably long inquiry after Line of Duty bumped Uncle Benny in deep stretch. It was the first Breeders’ race where the speed didn’t hold up. He won by a half-length and paid $9.00 to win. “It’s lovely to be here,” said winning trainer Charlie Appleby. “[Jockey] William [Buick] gave him a great ride. He managed to get him wide and come with a clear run. It’s great for the team and especially [owner] Sheik Mohammad.”

Juvenile: It was a great run by Game Winner to take this 1 1/16-mile race. He got off slow, had to run wide and the got bumped in the stretch, but he managed to win by 2 ¼ lengths. Now, it’s true that the top six horses in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile futures pool didn’t run in this race. But it’s hard to imagine Game Winner not beating most of all of them with his gritty performance on Friday.

Game Winner paid $4.00 to win for trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Joel Rosario. “Talk about a rough trip,” Baffert said. “I was glad Joel was patient with him. I felt a lot of pressure coming here because I really thought a lot of this colt. I know he is a really good horse. He showed it today. He was much the best.”

You can read a lot more about the Juvenile in this story. Just click here.

And, you can read my advance to the Classic, focusing on McKinzie and West Coast. Just click here.

Weekly handicapping lesson

Here’s our weekly contribution from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). The thinking is if you can know and understand the strategies, it will make you a better handicapper.

Today’s lesson is from the third race at Santa Anita. The floor is yours, Rob.

“This is an optional claimer at five furlongs. Much of the wagering menu Saturday, focuses on horizontal wagers, leaving us to find the most logical contenders, whether it be a single, or two, three, four runners to secure a race, keeping the wager alive. One of our favorite angles in certain races, is to use contrary running styles, especially if only wanting to go two deep. With this mentality, we’re seeking to find the sharpest runner from two points on the track, on the front end, and then, the most extreme opposite, a deep closer, in case things fall apart on the front end. We’ll start with top selection NAUGHTY SOPHIE (#1). We always preach the benefits of main-track speed moved to the turf course, where 22.2 splits become 21.2, over a surface which produces conveyor belt effects. Here’s ‘super feed’ trainer Peter Miller, moving this filly from ¾ on the main track, to ⅝ on the turf, with apprentice Heriberto Figueroa up, all signs pointing to a very strong front effort try, despite facing better, as nothing evens the playing field better than a distance and/or style which caters to the supposed lesser horse. NINE POINT NINE (#4) has been freshened by Vladimir Cerin, and despite the fact she can be claimed today, following not being eligible to be claimed in prior races, it’s fine. It’s when a horse runs well not able to be claimed, and then next time out is offered for a tag, when the outlook becomes a bit dimmer. With this one, she hasn’t been finishing, thus, the need for weaker, a healthy drop. So, we’ve got a fresh horse in November, fitting super-class wise, back sprinting over a turf course she’s shown a liking for. Look for an off the pace try today, giving us two different points on the track to capture this event.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 1-4

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): 8

“Positive Notes:

“9 Favorite Trip - Conner is a nice fit off the layoff, good at relaxing his runners before finishing down the lane.

“Negative Notes:

“2 Time and Chance - Not the right spot off the freshening.

“8 Tizanillusion - One paced style doesn’t translate well here.

“Morning Line Underlays / Overlays:

“1 Naughty Sophie - Morning Line 4-1 / WCHR Line 5-2

“TOP PICK: NAUGHTY SOPHIE (#1 4-1 Figueroa) $ Win Wager

“SECOND CHOICE: NINE POINT NINE (#4 6-1 Stevens) $ Win Wager”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at https://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Santa Anita review

The Breeders’ Cup didn’t have the only Juvenile race on Friday. At Santa Anita they unsealed $200,000 for the Golden State Juvenile Fillies for Cal-breds going seven furlongs. The winner was Give Me a Hint, who should have given bettors plenty of hints by winning her last two races by a combined 15 ¾ lengths.

The filly drew the rail and jockey Evin Roman kept her in fourth with about three furlongs to go. Then he angled her out and went four-wide at the top of the stretch and then breezed to a 2 1/4-length win. She paid $13.20, $5.80 and $4.00. Mucho Unusual was second and Hotitude was third.

“I trained the sire and this filly’s dam, so it makes it fun,” said winning trainer Bob Hess. “Mentally she’s a cool filly, she does things right. We thought she would run big today.”

In the other stakes, the $70,000 Lure Stakes for horses going a mile on the turf, Kencumin won by a half-length over Kenjisstorm. Kencumin paid $12.00, $6.00 and $3.60 for trainer Peter Eurton and jockey Brice Blanc.

“He relaxed beautifully for me,” Blanc told Mike Willman of Santa Anita. “I asked him to pick it up midway around the far turn and he responded nicely. Pete’s guys told me this horse comes to play and he sure did.”

Santa Anita preview

You got to get there early as live racing starts at 10:30 a.m. They have to do that to get the 11 races in. There are four turf races and two stakes, in addition to betting all the Breeders’ Cup races.

But before we get to the races, I have to comment on the brilliant shell game that Santa Anita is playing with their Rainbow Pick Six jackpot. The track has guaranteed a $2 million pay day on Saturday. The thinking is the purse will lure more betters and it will also lure more combinations and the chance of a single winning ticket is even less. Santa Anita doesn’t want anyone to hit the single ticket on Saturday.

All of which will lead to a massive last day mandatory payout that will bring in a gazillion dollars because every bettor knows that almost all their bets will be overlays. If you like horizontal betting, you would be a fool not to take a big shot on a mandatory payout day. This worked terrifically at Gulfstream in their Winter meet and track officials are trying to find the same magic here.

To be clear, I’m not saying there is anything wrong with this, in fact, it’s very smart. So, I’m kind of hoping it goes to the last day so we can see how much additional revenue can be gained.

The big stakes race on Saturday is the $200,000 Golden State Juvenile for Cal-bred 2-year-olds going seven furlongs. Your 8-5 favorite is Cruel Intention for Baffert and Roman. He won his only race by 5 ½ lengths. Second favorite is Galilean, at 9-5, for Jerry Hollendorfer and Rafael Bejarano. Galilean won the Los Alamitos Barretts Juvenile by a neck. Post is about 4:30 p.m.

The other stakes is the $100,000 Sen. Ken Maddy Stakes for fillies and mares going 6 ½ furlongs down the hillside turf course. Storm the Hill is the 7-2 favorite. He’s only one for seven this year but is four of six lifetime at Santa Anita, including winning the Wilshire Stakes in June.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 8, 9, 10, 7, 9, 10, 12, 10, 12, 8, 11.

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

8:15 (That’s a.m. folks) Churchill (2): $200,000 Cherokee Run Stakes, 3-year-olds, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Audible (2-1)

9:00 Churchill (3): Grade 1 $1 million Filly and Mare Sprint, fillies and mares 3 and up. Favorite: Marley’s Freedom (8-5)

9:38 Churchill (4): Grade 1 $1 million Turf Sprint, 3 and up, 5 ½ furlongs. Favorite: Disco Partner (7-2)

10:16 Churchill (5): Grade 1 $1 million Dirt Mile, 3 and up, 1 mile. Favorite: Catalina Cruiser (8-5)

11:04 Churchill (6): Grade 1 $2 million Filly and Mare Turf, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 3/8 miles on turf. Favorite: Sister Charlie (7-2)

11:46 Churchill (7): Grade 1 $2 million Breeders’ Cup Sprint, 3 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Imperial Hint (9-5)

12:30 Woodbine (6): Grade 3 $125,000 Maple Leaf Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 ¼ miles. Favorite: Gamble’s Ghost (5-2)

12:36 Churchill (8): Grade 1 $2 million Breeders’ Cup Mile, 3 and up, one mile on the turf. Favorite: Polydream (5-1)

1:16 Churchill (9): Grade 1 $2 million Breeders’ Cup Distaff, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Monomoy Girl (7-2)

1:32 Woodbine (8): Grade 2 $175,000 Autumn Stakes, 3 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Mr Havercamp (7-5)

1:44 Aqueduct (9): Grade 3 $150,000 Turnback the Alarm Handicap, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Devine Miss Grey (7-5)

1:56 Churchill (10): Grade 1 $4 million Breeders’ Cup Turf, 3 and up, 1 ½ miles on turf. Favorite: Enable (1-1)

2:44 Churchill (11): Grade 1 $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic, 3 and up, 1 ¼ miles. Favorite: Accelerate (5-2)

3:22 Churchill (12): $200,000 Chilukki Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 mile. Favorite: Divine Miss Grey (9-5)

3:30 Santa Anita (8): Grade 3 $100,000 Sen. Ken Maddy Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 6 ½ furlongs on turf. Favorite: Storm the Hill (7-2)

4:30 Santa Anita (10): $200,000 Golden State Juvenile, Cal-bred 2-year-olds, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Cruel Intention (8-5)

Bob Ike’s SA play of the day

EIGHTH RACE: No. 6 Painting Corners (4-1)

Sharp filly from the Peter Miller stable has rattled off two straight while showing improved ability to relax early. She should again get first run on likely pacesetter Go On Mary and be in the right spot turning for home. Tab for the hat trick.

Friday’s result: Secretary at War was in position but couldn’t muster a closing kick and finished sixth.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here's a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ed Burgart’s LA play of the day

THIRD RACE: No. 5 El Koreano (2-1)

He is the speed of the field and gets a rider upgrade from inexperienced Gerardo Vera to accomplished veteran Christian Aragon. In his last third-place try at this 870-yard distance, he dueled for the lead until lugging out badly midway on the turn. He doesn’t face many speed foes in this field and has won 40 percent of his 10 starts this year.

Final thought

Always looking to add more subscribers to this newsletter. Can’t beat the price. If you like it, tell someone. If you don’t like it, then you’re probably not reading this. Either way, send to a friend and just have them click here and sign up. Remember, it’s free, and all we need is your email, nothing more.

Any thoughts, you can reach me at johnacherwa@gmail.com. You can also feed my ego by following me on Twitter @jcherwa

And now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.

DREAMS OF VALOR sped to the early lead, angled in and set all the pace along the inside, kicked away under urging in the stretch and proved best. CIMPL MAN stalked inside then off the rail nearing and on the second turn, was three deep leaving that turn and into the stretch, drifted in some and held second. RED KING chased outside a rival then between foes on the backstretch and second turn, split rivals again in the stretch and was edged for the place. BELLERIN three deep into the first turn, stalked outside a rival then between foes into the stretch, drifted inward in deep stretch and was outfinished for a minor award. ICY STREET saved ground stalking the pace, came out a bit into the stretch, split horses in midstretch, angled in then steadied in tight off heels a sixteenth out and was outfinished. AVALANCHE chased outside a rival then three deep on the backstretch, angled in on the second turn, got through inside in the stretch then took an awkward step in tight off heels a sixteenth out and lacked the needed rally. FABOZZI close up stalking the pace outside a rival then three deep leaving the backstretch and on the second turn and into the stretch and did not rally. ADORNED stalked a bit off the rail then inside leaving the second turn and into the stretch, was between horses in midstretch and weakened in the final furlong.

Z Z TIGER had speed three deep then inched away, angled in and set the pace off the rail, drew away under urging in the stretch then was under a hold late. ONE UPPER broke out a bit, stalked off the rail then a bit off the fence on the turn, came out in the stretch and gained the place. MI PAJARITO saved ground stalking the winner, came a bit off the rail in the stretch and bested the others. SOCIAL ETIQUETTE had speed between horses then stalked outside a rival, continued off the rail leaving the turn and three deep into the stretch and weakened. GREY TSUNAMI settled a bit off the rail then inside on the backstretch and turn and into the stretch, came out some in upper stretch and improved position. DESIRED EDGE steadied when squeezed back at the start, chased three deep, continued outside on the turn and three wide into the stretch and did not rally. DISLITLEAGLECANFLY broke in onto a rival, chased between horses then off the rail, angled in on the turn and lacked a further response. CHARMING ALEXIS stalked outside, dropped back on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and had little left for the drive.

NO WINE UNTASTED sped to the early lead, set the pace off the rail then angled in, responded when challenged leaving the hill, inched away again under urging in the stretch and gamely prevailed. SPECTACULAR MOVE stalked outside then four wide and three deep, bid outside the winner leaving the hill and into the stretch, could not match that one in the final furlong but bested the others. HALO DARLIN close up stalking the pace between horses then inside leaving the hill, came a bit off the rail in the stretch and held third. MY AUDUBON broke a bit slowly, settled off the rail then angled in leaving the hill and improved position inside in the stretch. TINK'S TWIRL also broke a bit slowly, settled inside, came out nearing the dirt crossing and four wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. ASHLEY'S CHARMS stalked between horses then three deep leaving the hill, angled in alongside a rival into the stretch and weakened. PULPITINTHESKY pulled her way along inside stalking the pace, continued to tug along the rail leaving the hill and weakened in the drive. ASEM stalked off the rail then between horses, was in tight between foes midway on the hill, came out three wide into the stretch and had little left for the drive. Rail on hill at 14 feet.

BLEW BY YOU settled off the rail, drifted in some in upper stretch, came out in midstretch and four wide a sixteenth out, rallied under left handed urging to get up in the late stages. IMMINENT pressed the pace three deep then stalked off the rail on the turn, re-bid three wide into the stretch to gain the lead, inched away and drifted inward in midstretch and was caught late. ATHLEISURE angled in and saved ground chasing the pace to the stretch, split rivals past midstretch and picked up the show. SPICY CURRY chased between horses then off the rail on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. GRACIE BELLE went up inside to duel for the lead, battled along the rail on the turn and into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. SUPERHOTAMOLLY had good early speed and dueled between horses then outside a rival on the turn, battled between foes again into the stretch and also weakened in the final furlong. LA SABALERA hopped then broke inward and slowly and saved ground throughout to no avail. REDS SACRED APPEAL broke a bit slowly, settled just off the rail then outside a rival on the turn and was not a threat. DERBY ROYALTY chased three deep then outside a rival on the turn, angled in a bit off the rail into the stretch and weakened.

QUINNIE stalked inside, bid alongside the runner-up leaving the second turn, took a short lead nearing midstretch and inched away late under urging. MISS UNUSUAL had good early speed and dueled inside then inched away on the backstretch, fought back inside leaving the second turn then a bit off the rail in the stretch and could not quite match the winner late. COPPER FEVER four wide into the first turn, angled in and chased inside, came out off heels then split horses on the second turn, angled three wide into the stretch and outfinished a foe for third. MARRIED BY NOW chased outside, went four wide leaving the backstretch and on the second turn, came three wide into the stretch and was outkicked for the show. PEACHY between horses early, stalked just off the inside then outside a rival on the second turn was in a bit tight a quarter mile out, came out into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. LETHAL LEGACY angled in and saved ground chasing the pace, split horses leaving the second turn, continued along the rail in the stretch and could not offer the necessary late kick. LOOKINGFORTHEWIRE four wide on the first turn, stalked three deep, angled in leaving the second turn, came out in upper stretch and weakened. MINISTER'SMISTRESS pulled between horses and steadied in tight on the first turn, stalked outside a rival then three deep to the stretch and also weakened. SUMMER DOWN NOW four wide into the first turn, angled in and saved ground off the pace, came out into the stretch and did not rally. JUST KATHY pressed the pace outside the runner-up then stalked outside the winner, dropped back inside on the second turn and gave way.

ALL TEA ALL SHADE dropped back and angled in to save ground off the pace, went outside a rival leaving the turn, came out into the stretch, angled back to the inside in midstretch and rallied under urging along the fence to gain the lead in deep stretch and won clear. DIOSA had good early speed and set a pressured pace just off the inside, inched away and angled in on the turn, kicked clear off the rail into the stretch, shortened stride in deep stretch and just held second. SECRET MANEUVER settled outside then alongside a rival, came out four wide into the stretch, drifted in late and was edged for the place. BAM BAMS LIL RIVER stalked between horses then a bit off the rail on the turn and into the stretch and lacked a rally. VEGAS STRONG BABY stalked three deep then outside a rival on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and could not summon the necessary response. PLAN B pressed the pace outside the runner-up then stalked a bit off the rail on the turn, angled in leaving the turn, drifted in through the drive and gave way. SIX PACK GAL saved ground stalking the pace, dropped back on the turn, came out in the stretch and had nothing left for the drive.

KENCUMIN (FR) pressed the pace outside the runner-up throughout, battled under left handed urging to gain the lead in deep stretch and gamely prevailed. KENJISSTORM sped to the early lead, set a pressured pace inside, fought back along the rail through the stretch and continued gamely to the wire. ALERT BAY stalked outside a rival, came out into the stretch and finished willingly. LE KEN (ARG) chased three deep then outside a rival, came three wide into the stretch and also found his best stride late. CHICAGO STYLE settled outside a rival chasing the pace then inside leaving the second turn, came out in upper stretch and was outfinished. SECRETARY AT WAR saved ground stalking the pace, came out a bit leaving the second turn and into the stretch and could not quite summon the needed late kick. THREEFIVEINDIA pulled his way along to stalk the pace a bit off the rail then inside to the stretch, came out some in upper stretch and also could not offer the necessary late response. COLONIST stalked the pace inside, steadied sharply in tight into the second turn to drop back and weakened.

GIVE ME A HINT bobbled at the start, was sent inside then stalked a bit off the rail, came out leaving the turn and four wide into the stretch, rallied under urging to gain the lead outside a rival a sixteenth out and proved best. MUCHO UNUSUAL dueled three deep to the stretch then came back outside a rival for the place. HOTITUDE had good early speed and dueled inside, inched away in midstretch, could not match the winner in the final sixteenth and was edged late for second. CREATIVE INSTINCT dueled between horses, fought back into the stretch and weakened late. DICHOTOMY stalked outside a rival then between horses on the turn and lacked the needed rally. TIME FOR SUZZIE close up stalking the pace outside then three deep to the stretch and weakened. APACHE PRINCESS was in a good position stalking the pace between horses then outside the winner or off the rail on the turn, came four wide into the stretch and also weakened. NAUGHTY TIGER settled off the pace inside, came around a rail into the stretch and did not rally. START THE SHOW stalked a bit off the rail then inside, dropped back into the stretch and weakened.

DOWNSIDE UP saved ground chasing the pace, advanced inside leaving the turn and into the stretch, bid along the rail in midstretch, gained the lead under urging, inched away and held. SCHULACE had good early speed and dueled inside, came a bit off the rail into the stretch, was between foes in midstretch and held second. AMERICAN CURRENCY prompted the pace three deep, continued three wide in midstretch and was edged for the place. LATITUDE settled off the rail, angled in leaving the backstretch, split horses four wide into the stretch and bested the others. ROYAL SEEKER saved ground off the pace, cut the corner into the stretch and improved position inside. KATZUMOTO stalked three deep then outside on the turn, came five wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. KOPITAR stalked inside then a bit off the rail, was outside the winner leaving the turn and did not rally. QUAD broke out a bit, stalked between horses then off the rail on the turn, came three deep into the stretch and weakened. SPIRIT WORLD steadied when crowded at the start, settled outside a rival to the stretch and was not a threat. FROM THE DISTANCE dueled between horses, battled between foes on the turn and into the stretch and had little left in the final furlong.

DROP THE MIC settled outside a rival, came three deep into the stretch and rallied under left handed urging to get up in the final stride. PAPRIKA stalked between horses then a bit off the rail into the stretch, bid outside a rival to gain the lead in deep stretch, inched away and just failed to hold off the winner. SMOOVIE dueled three deep between horses then stalked off the rail leaving the hill, came out four wide into the stretch and went on willingly late. SMILING ANNIE went up inside to duel for the lead, inched clear in the stretch, fought back in deep stretch and weakened late. SOUTH BOOT SHIRLEY saved ground chasing the pace, came a bit off the rail in the stretch and lacked the needed rally. ENVY broke in and a bit slowly, saved ground off the pace to the stretch and improved position inside. AWESOME AMANDA stalked outside then three deep, angled in outside a rival into the stretch and did not rally. ENCOUNTRESS dueled between horses then outside a rival leaving the hill and weakened in the stretch. ZILLINDA settled off the rail then inside, came out a bit into the stretch and lacked a rally. GRANDMA GERTRUDE pressed the pace four wide then stalked outside leaving the hill, came out five wide into the stretch, drifted in some in the drive and weakened. Rail on hill at 14 feet.