Racing! Rob Henie is back with a handicapping lesson

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we talk about one of horse racing’s many characters.

Saturday is a pretty good card at Santa Anita with three graded stakes. One of them, the San Marcos, was moved from last Saturday to today because the rain would have forced it off the turf last week.

The most interesting race for me is the Grade 2 $200,000 Las Virgenes Stakes for 3-year-old fillies going a mile on the dirt. There are only five starters, much like Sunday’s San Vicente Stakes for 3-year-olds going seven furlongs.

The obvious story in the race is the super-talented Bellafina, who should win easily. And there is Bob Baffert’s bridesmaid Mother Mother, who has finished second twice to Bellafina.

But, sometimes the best story isn’t the guy on top. I did a story on longtime trainer Steve Specht, who does most of his running in Northern California. Well, on Thursday he drove two of his horses down to Santa Anita, including Tomlin, who is running in the Las Virgenes. And by drove, I mean he did the driving. If you want to know more about this trainer who has about 1,400 wins in around 8,500 starts just click here.

Couldn’t get every anecdote about the fiery yet compassionate 69-year-old trainer in the web and print story, so saved this PG-13 one for you newsletter readers.

This is from Dan Kiser, the racing manager for Larry Williams, who has placed about 100 horses with Specht through an almost a two-decade run. Williams currently has eight horses in Specht’s 20-horse barn. This incident happened a couple of years ago.

“Whenever we run a horse, I always try and watch on TVG,” Kiser said. “We’re in Idaho and I was hauling horses but I hit a lot of traffic and wasn’t going to be able to watch a horse run. So, I call Steve and ask him to give me play-by-play.

“I’ve got other people in the car and I’ve got the speaker on. We were expecting a good race from this horse. The horse doesn’t break and he yells, ‘(can’t use this two-word expletive even in a newsletter).’

“He follows that up with other swear words and forgets he’s on the speaker phone with this stream of profanities. Then the horse starts making a move and more profanities come and we win the damn race. At this point, I’m laughing and thinking Trevor Denman’s job is not in jeopardy. He must have sworn 40 times during a six-furlong race.”

So, now do you want to read about the guy? Again, just click here.

Weekly handicapping lesson

Here’s our weekly contribution from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). The thinking is if you can know and understand the strategies, it will make you a better handicapper. But before we get to his West Coast lesson, I’ll mention that in lieu of the mandatory Rainbow Pick Six payout at Gulfstream, that in the ECHR on Friday, he had seven top pick winners. Not bad, in fact, impressive.

So, back to the West Coast and today’s lesson is from the second race at Santa Anita. Rob, what sayeth you?

“Here’s a $32,000 claimer at 5 ½ furlongs. One thing about races shorter than six furlongs, the intentions of the connections usually stand out, as it’s often more about the need for a shorter distance than it is about class or other factors. With that in mind, top selection is ORCA (#4). Let’s start with the fact she won going away going 1 1/16 up at Golden Gate, but George Papaprodromou claimed, returns to So. Cal, shortens way up from 8 ½ to 5 ½, and adds blinkers. Expecting she’ll show a touch of speed looking to stay close before trying to win the stamina game exiting that route effort, and regarding the jump from $8,000 to $32,000, we need to first understand, this group is about a $12,500 bunch. So, never mind with the noted $32,000 condition. Remember, understanding the group in the race is of better use than the listed tag. PORTAL CREEK (#2) has shown the ability to stay close before finishing late, also off the claim, Joel Rosario is a strong fit, and with these two runners, we should have the two best final ¼’s in the race.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 4-2

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): none

“Negative Notes:

“4 Hot Rod Gal - Is gonna get played here, but we’re looking to beat, as she’s being placed for a tag for the first time since breaking her maiden, and it’s likely the tendency of Agapito Delgadillo to push his runners from the gate, likely won’t help this one. Sometimes understanding the tendencies of jocks when the gates open, can help create a better pace picture. Can we win? Sure, but we believe there’s better risk-reward elsewhere looking to beat.

“TOP PICK: ORCA (#4 10-1 Franco)

“SECOND CHOICE: PORTAL CREEK (#2 7-2 Rosario)”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at https://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Santa Anita review

At one point last year he was considered a Triple Crown possibility early in the year but a fourth in the San Vicente took him off that path. He had some nice wins, including the Sir Barton at Pimlico, and seems to have regained some form as a 4-year-old. On Friday, Ax Man showed he could handle seven furlongs rather easily, winning the featured $67,000 allowance feature by 1 ¼ lengths.

It looked as if Edward Going Left was going to gain in the stretch but Ax Man turned him back rather easily. Ax Man, for Bob Baffert and ridden by Drayden Van Dyke, paid $6.20, $3.40 and $2.80. Calexman, who ran with Ax Man through the early stages of the race, finished third.

“Bob told me the rail was golden and he wasn’t lyin’,” Van Dyke told Mike Willman of Santa Anita.

Ax Man has four wins in eight lifetime starts.

Santa Anita preview

Real early post of 11:30 a.m. but that’s what you do when you have 11 races. Five of them are on the turf and there are three graded stakes races. Should have been a fourth stakes, the ungraded Baffle, but it didn’t fill. The average field size is 8.4, thanks to four 10 or 10-plus horse fields.

Here are the stakes:

Grade 2 $200,000 Las Virgenes Stakes: As mentioned above, it’s a mile race for 3-year-old fillies. Bellafina is the huge favorite at 2-5 for trainer Simon Callaghan and jockey Flavien Prat. Bellafina was on track to win the Eclipse Award for best 2-year-old filly but finished a disappointing fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly race. Last out she won the Santa Ynez by 8 ½ widening lengths.

Second favorite, at 7-2, is Mother Mother for Baffert and Van Dyke. She has finished second to Bellafina twice and is two-of-five lifetime. She was second in the Santa Ynez last out. Post is about 1:35 p.m. for the five-horse race.

Grade 3 $100,000 Thunder Road Stakes: This is a race for older horses going a mile on the turf. River Boyne is the 8-5 favorite for Jeff Mullins and Prat. He was six-of-nine last year and coming off a win in the Mathis Brothers Mile on opening day.

Ohio, an 8-year-old gelding, is the 5-2 second choice for Michael McCarthy and Ruben Fuentes. He won the Cotton Fitzsimmons Mile Handicap at Turf Paradise last out. He was sixth last year in this race. Post is about 2:40 p.m.

Grade 2 $200,000 San Marcos Stakes: This is another turf race, this time older horses going 1 ¼ miles. Chicago Style is the 3-1 favorite for Tom Proctor and Van Dyke. This lightly raced 6-year-old gelding is six-for-12 lifetime. He won the Hollywood Turf Cup at Del Mar.

Epical is the second favorite at 7-2 for Jim Cassidy and Tyler Baze. He has won his last two races, both allowance/optional claimers. He is three-of-nine lifetime. Post is about 3:40 p.m. for the 13-horse field.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 7, 6, 9, 7, 5, 10, 6, 7, 13, 10, 12 (1 also eligible).

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth more $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

11:27 Gulfstream (6): Grade 3 $150,000 Suwannee River Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/8 miles on turf. Favorite: Rymska (3-5)

12:50 Tampa Bay (8): Grade 3 $175,000 Tampa Bay Stakes, 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Heart to Heart (9-5)

1:22 Tampa Bay (9): $150,000 Suncoast Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 mile and 40 yards. Favorite: Sweet Diane (3-1)

1:30 Santa Anita (5): Grade 2 $200,000 Las Virgenes Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 mile. Favorite: Bellafina (2-5)

1:34 Aqueduct (8): $150,000 Jimmy Winkfield Stakes, 3-year-olds, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Haikal (9-5)

1:52 Tampa Bay (10): Grade 3 $175,000 Endeavour Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Rymska (5-2)

2:12 Gulfstream (11): $100,000 El Prado Stakes, 4 and up, 7 ½ furlongs on turf. Favorite: Hembree (7-2)

2:20 Oaklawn (7): $100,000 King Cotton Stakes, 4 and up, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Heartwood (3-1)

2:25 Tampa Bay (11): Grade 3 $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Knicks Go (5-2)

2:30 Santa Anita (7): Grade 3 $100,000 Thunder Road Stakes, 1 mile. Favorite: River Boyne (8-5)

3:30 Santa Anita (9): Grade 2 $200,000 San Marcos Stakes, 1 ¼ miles on turf. Favorite: Chicago Style (3-1)

3:52 Delta Downs (2): $100,000 Louisiana Premier Night Starlet, La-bred fillies 3-years-old, 1 mile. Favorite: Midnight Fantasy (3-5)

6:22 Delta Downs (7): $100,000 Louisiana Premier Night Matron, La-bred fillies and mares 4 and up, 5 furlongs. Favorite: Ours to Run (4-5)

6:52 Delta Downs (8): $100,000 Louisiana Premier Night Prince, La-bred 3-year-olds, 1 mile. Favorite: Classy John (2-1)

7:22 Delta Downs (9): $150,000 Louisiana Premier Night Championship, La-bred 4 and up, 1 1/16

7:52 Delta Downs (10): $125,000 Louisiana Premier Night Distaff, La-bred fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 mile. Favorite: Testing One Two (9-5)

8:22 Delta Downs (11): $100,000 Louisiana Premier Night Sprint, La-bred 4 and up, 5 furlongs. Favorite: Monte Man (9-5)

Bob Ike’s SA pick of the day

NINTH RACE: No. 6 Sejo (12-1)

French import from the John Sadler barn won his last two starts overseas and now makes his U.S. debut under top rider Flavien Prat. He beat large fields while carrying weight, gets Lasix and appears to have trained steadily for top connections. A couple of the favorites look very solid but he should offer some wagering value in this spot.

Friday’s result: Brix would not relax early, pressed a hot pace while racing three-wide throughout and paid the price through the lane. He might like the cutback in distance over the downhill course.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here's a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Chris Wade’s LA pick of the day

RACE SIX: No. 7 Topock George (5-1)

This gelding put up a career best effort in his most recent start 35 nights ago despite having to endure a late shoe repair in the paddock. If another step of improvement is in the offing Saturday, this medium-priced contender could find the winner’s circle for the James Glenn Jr. barn hitting at a solid 31% over the past 30 nights of racing.

(No worries, Ed Burgart hasn’t gone away, he’s just on vacation. Chris Wade has been the racing analyst and host of the Los Alamitos night simulcast broadcast for nearly two decades. While Ed is on vacation, Chris also fills in as the nighttime morning-line maker.)

Final thought

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Any thoughts, you can reach me at johnacherwa@gmail.com. You can also feed my ego by following me on Twitter @jcherwa

And now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.

RUNNINGWSCISSORS had speed inside then inched away and drifted out early, set the pace off the rail, angled in entering the turn, kicked clear and remained clear under urging. LEAD STAR a step slow to begin, angled in and chased inside throughout and picked up the place. GLEYBER chased off the rail then outside a rival into and on the turn, came three wide into the stretch and edged a rival for the show. STAY IN YO LANE hopped at the start, had speed between horses then stalked inside, steadied sharply into the turn, came out into the stretch, drifted in late and was outfinished for third. IRISH POLO three deep early, stalked a bit off the rail, was forced in some entering the turn, dropped back between foes into the stretch and had little left for the drive. The stewards conducted an inquiry into the run into the turn but made no change when they ruled that though the winner drifted in entering the turn, the incident did not alter the original order of finish.

MONGOLIAN WINDOW angled in and pulled inside, saved ground stalking the pace, bid outside a rival on the second turn to gain the lead, kicked clear and angled in and drew off in the stretch under some left handed urging. SUBIC BAY stalked the pace inside then a bit off the rail, waited off heels between foes into the second turn, continued outside a rival then three deep into the stretch, drifted in some late and edged a rival for the place. WIND TARTARE (FR) saved ground stalking the pace, was in a bit tight into the second turn, continued inside, came out for room in midstretch and gained the show late. MYBLUEBELL (FR) between horses early, chased outside a rival then three deep into the second turn, angled in alongside a foe into the stretch and was edged late for third. SPEAKERS chased three deep then outside a rival on the backstretch and second turn, came three wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. QUINNIE stalked inside then a bit off the rail to the stretch and did not rally. COME ON KAT had speed outside the winner then inched away and angled in, set the pace inside, dueled briefly on the second turn, dropped back into the stretch and weakened.

AWARD IT angled in and saved ground stalking the pace, continued inside in the lane, bid along the fence under urging in deep stretch and got up nearing the wire. EMPRESS OF LOV sped to the early lead, set the pace inside then a bit off the rail, kicked away again just off the fence into the stretch and held on well but was caught between foes late. ROAD TEST stalked outside a rival then between horses, continued alongside a foe into the stretch and finished willingly three deep on the line. MAJESTIC DIVA was in a good position stalking the pace three wide to the stretch and weakened. IPRAY settled outside a rival then a bit off the rail, angled in on the backstretch, saved ground off the pace to the stretch, came out a bit in the lane and lacked a further response.

FICANAS (GB) hopped slightly in a bit of a slow start, settled outside then off the rail, continued alongside a rival leaving the hill, came three wide into the stretch, angled out in upper stretch, rallied under some urging with the whip turned down and steady handling to gain the lead in deep stretch and won clear under a hold late. STORMING LADY had good early speed and dueled outside a rival, regained the advantage into the stretch, inched away in midstretch, could not match the winner late but held second. SMOOVIE stalked outside then four wide leaving the hill and into the stretch, drifted in some and was edged for the place. PERSEPOLIS stalked three deep then three wide between foes leaving the hill and into the stretch and lacked the needed late kick. SUNRISER settled off the rail then inside on the hill and into the stretch, came out in upper stretch and could not offer the necessary response. TIVAT had good early speed and dueled a bit off the rail then inside leaving the hill, put a head in front, fought back into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. MAGICAL GRAY bobbled and bumped a rival at the start, stalked just off the rail then between horses, drifted inward in the stretch and also weakened. MELA JONES bumped at the start, stalked inside, was in tight then hopped onto the dirt crossing and also weakened in the drive. Rail on hill at zero.

FORESTATION pulled along the inside and was in tight into the first turn, saved ground stalking the pace, bid along the fence in the stretch, took the lead past the eighth pole and won clear under urging. OUR SILVER OAK four wide into the first turn, stalked outside a rival, bid four wide into the stretch to gain a short lead, lugged inward in midstretch and past the eighth pole and bested the others. SAYIN GRACE bobbled at the start, went up to press the pace outside a rival then between foe leaving the backstretch, battled outside the pacesetter on the second turn, was fanned out between foes into the stretch and held third. OCCAM'S RAZOR had good early speed and angled in, set a pressured pace inside, came off the rail into the stretch and weakened in the final furlong. LIEUTENANT DAN three deep into the first turn, stalked off the rail then bid three deep on the backstretch, dropped back on the second turn, angled in some and also weakened.

RED KING saved ground stalking the pace, came out in midstretch, bid outside the runner-up under left handed urging to gain the lead in deep stretch and gamely prevailed. ENCUMBERED had speed between horses then angled in and set the pace inside, responded when challenged on the second turn, inched away again leaving that turn, came a bit off the rail in upper stretch, kicked clear, drifted in, fought back in deep stretch and continued willingly to the wire. ICE KAT angled in and chased inside, came out a bit in midstretch and bested the rest. FALCONE three deep into and on the first turn, chased outside a rival, split horses into the stretch, was in tight off heels in upper stretch, angled in for room in midstretch and was outfinished. BIRD IS THE WORD stalked outside a rival then three deep leaving the backstretch and on the second turn, came four wide into the stretch and lacked the needed rally. WILSHIRE DUDE angled in and stalked inside, continued between foes on the second turn and three deep into the stretch and weakened. VAN CORTLANDT three deep early, stalked a bit off the rail, bid outside the runner-up on the second turn then stalked again leaving that turn, was between rivals in midstretch and also weakened.

AX MAN had good early speed and dueled inside, inched away leaving the turn, kicked clear and held under some urging. EDWARDS GOING LEFT a step slow to begin, went up to stalk the pace just off the rail on the backstretch and turn, came three wide into the stretch and continued willingly to be second best. CALEXMAN had speed between horses then dueled outside the winner, stalked just off the fence leaving the turn and into the stretch and held third. SHIVERMETIMBERS chased off the rail then outside a rival into and on the turn and just off the fence into the stretch and lacked a rally. FULL OF LUCK (CHI) broke a bit slowly, saved ground chasing the pace throughout and weakened in the drive. SPOKANE EAGLE stalked outside a rival then off the rail on the turn and three wide into the stretch and also weakened.

MOBOU stalked three deep then outside a rival, continued three wide into and on the second turn and into the stretch, bid outside the pacesetter to gain a short advantage in midstretch, inched away under left handed urging and held on gamely. SEA OF LIBERTY pulled along the inside and steadied into the first turn, saved ground stalking the pace, came out on the second turn and four wide into the stretch, drifted in some but closed gamely alongside the winner. NO PARKING HERE chased a bit off the rail then between foes into and on the second turn, continued outside a foe into the stretch and gained the show late. POSTERIZE sped to the early lead, inched away on the first turn, set the pace inside, dueled on the backstretch and into the second turn, inched away again on that turn, fought back inside the winner until past midstretch and lost third late. SCRAPPY DEVILLE pulled between horses then chased a bit off the rail or inside, went around a rival leaving the second turn, came out into the stretch and was outfinished. BRIX tugged his way along three deep then stalked outside a rival, bid three deep on the backstretch then alongside the winner on the second turn, was between foes into the stretch and weakened. RED CLEM angled in and saved ground chasing the pace, came out a bit in midstretch and lacked a rally. LAKE SHOW settled outside a rival chasing the pace, dropped back off the rail on the second turn, came out into the stretch and did not rally. VEZUCHIY hopped slightly in a slow start, went three deep into the first turn then chased outside a rival to the stretch and lacked a further response. JACK'S REIGN pulled between horses then stalked a bit off the rail on the first turn, bid between foes on the backstretch, steadied sharply in tight into the second turn, angled in and weakened.