Horse racing newsletter: Happy Fourth of July

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter, as Ron Flatter dazzles us with info on how to play the chalk, and we might need it with today’s Los Alamitos Derby.

We’ve spent some time talking about Saturday’s Los Alamitos Derby already this week. If you missed it, here’s Jon White’s look at it amid his Kentucky Derby rankings. Just click here for the web version. And I wrote a story for our website that just hits the basics. Just click here.

But the best racing on Saturday is in New York at Belmont Park. There are five graded stakes, two of them are Grade 1. McKinzie is the favorite in the Met Mile, a race he finished in second last year. But dare I say, that trip can best be described (in a general sense) by this little Robert Preston performance. Just click here and enjoy. Yes, I know the song is about billiards and not racing but there are some racing references.

You’ll also have the usual weekend confusion on where to find the races. You can find Belmont on FS1 and also on NBC from 2 to 3 p.m. PDT. But you won’t be able to find it on TVG, because this NBC broadcast is not the TVG simulcast. Huh? Exactly.

On to the good stuff.

Ron Flatter’s weekly insights

It’s time for our weekly contribution from Ron Flatter of the Vegas Stats and Information Network. He offers up some amazing stats on betting favorites in Derby prep races. Ron, what insights do you have?

“I admit it. I am allergic to chalk.

“It is mostly mental, but there is no doubt that this is an affliction that has done significant physical harm to my economic well-being.

“So as someone who plumbs the depths of past performances fishing for that will-o’-the-wisp that we deceptively call value, Kentucky Derby points preps have been hazardous to my financial health.

“There will be more of those dates this year than ever, and they collectively have something in common. They are more prone to leaving chalk burn than the average horse race.

“Saturday’s Los Alamitos Futurity will be the 47th prep on the formal Road to the Kentucky Derby. Of the first 46, favorites have won 21 of them. That translates to 45.7%. Throw out the preps in Europe and Japan, and favorites have won 15 of 35, still 42.9%.

“Historically the success rate for favorites in all races is said to be 35%, at least rhetorically. Santa Anita morning-line writer and bona-fide historian Jon White believes it is closer to 32% to 33%. Quantifying it is a project best left to the idled characters from “The Big Bang Theory.” Whatever the case, Derby preps yield far less value than the perceived norm.

“Take it a step further. When the qualifying races get more important, the chalk gets even thicker at the top. There have been six preps that have been worth at least 100 points to the winner. The favorite won five of them. The lone exception — Honor A. P. in the Santa Anita Derby — paid only $6.40 to win, and odds-on Authentic finished second.

“At 3-1 in the Louisiana Derby, Wells Bayou was the longest-priced favorite to win a points prep, paying $8.40. Any bettor who put $2 on the nose of every favorite in every race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby would have paid $70 — and lost $6.70.

“Not that there is any consistency to this trend over time. Consider the percentage of favorites that crossed the line first in Derby preps — in the U.S., Europe and Japan — since the points system was established nearly eight years ago:

2012-13 – 14-for-36 – 38.9%

2013-14 – 10-for-34 – 29.4%

2014-15 – 19-for-35 – 54.3%

2015-16 – 13-for-34 – 38.2%

2016-17 – 15-for-37 – 40.5%

2017-18 – 24-for-45 – 53.3%

2018-19 – 18-for-46 – 39.1%

2019-20 – 21-for-46 – 45.7%

“Is it coincidental that the two seasons when favorites won more often than they lost were the years when American Pharoah and Justify won the Triple Crown? Perhaps. That could be indicative of a lack of depth in those particular 3-year-old classes. On the other hand, California Chrome emerged as a champion in 2014, when favorites struggled in the preps.

“If there is a takeaway here, it is this. As the races get more important between now and the Derby, it will not be any easier to cash a big ticket. In other words, when betting next week’s Blue Grass, this month’s Haskell and next month’s Travers, don’t expect to get risk. But shun the favorites at your own risk.

Ron Flatter is a host and reporter who covers horse racing for the Vegas Stats & Information Network, which is available at SiriusXM 204 and to subscribers at VSiN.com. He also hosts the Ron Flatter Racing Pod. The relationship between race and racing is the subject of the current episode. Equibase president Jason Wilson, Fox Sports’ Jonathon Kinchen, bloodstock executive Greg Harbut and publicist Alicia Hughes discuss the challenges faced by Black Americans in the sport. You can listen by clicking here.

Los Alamitos daytime review

Ava’s Charm, under a really smart ride by Drayden Van Dyke, came from mid-pack around the far turn to win the feature, a six-furlong allowance/optional claimer, by four lengths. Bob Baffert was the winning trainer.

Ava’s Charm paid $4.00, $3.20 and $2.80. Hotitude was second, and Roadrunner’s Honor finished third.

There are two more cards left in this abbreviated meeting. Juan Hernandez is the leading jockey with five wins. There are seven trainers tied with two wins.

Los Alamitos daytime preview

This is the best day of the seven-day Los Al meeting, and I can’t wait to get my show-parlay started. Wait, what? There is no show wagering in three of the nine races, including the first two races. Of course, that’s because of short fields and Los Al has always run tight margins and can’t be in the position of giving away free money. But, before you get mad, remember that owner Ed Allred put in $50,000 of his own money to keep the Los Alamitos Derby at $150,000. And to that, all I can say is “huzzah.” (Note: Not-so-subtle reference to “The Great” on Hulu. Not for the kiddies.)

And while we’re at it, what is it with this late start every day at Los Al this week. On Thursday, it was 1:09 p.m. and on Friday it was 1:08 p.m. The program says approximately 1 p.m. Last week, the track was within three-to-four minutes. This week, very different. I know only two days left, but where I come from 1 p.m. does not mean 1:08 or 1:09. I know, who cares?

There are two graded stakes. Let’s look at them.

Grade 3 $150,000 Los Alamitos Derby: This Kentucky Derby preps race (20-8-4-2 points) is for 3-year-olds (of course) at 1 1/8 miles. The favorite is the once raced Uncle Chuck, who won his first race by seven lengths and it could have been more. Bob Baffert is the trainer and Luis Saez is in from New York to ride. (He’s on three Baffert horses on Saturday.) Regular rider Mike Smith is in New York riding McKinzie. Uncle Chuck has been listed as 6-5.

The second favorite is Thousand Words, at 9-5, also for Baffert and has Flavien Prat in the saddle. He’s a little more tested having won his first three races before a fourth-place finish in the San Felipe and an 11th place finish at Oaklawn after a terrible start. It’s a five-horse race with a 3:28 p.m. listed post time.

Grade 2 $200,000 Great Lady M Stakes: This is a race for fillies and mares going 6½ furlongs. The big favorite should be Bellafina, who looked as if she was on the way to superstardom but never quite got it done at the highest level. She won three of her first four Grade 1s but hasn’t won any of the five she has run in since then. But this is a Grade 2, so, based on class, it should be her race. Simon Callaghan is the trainer and Prat will ride.

The second favorite is Sneaking Out at 4-1 for Jerry Hollendorfer (remember him?) and Martin Garcia (remember him?). She has won four-of-10 lifetime. She is coming off a fifth in the Winning Colors at Churchill Downs. There are seven starts with a post around 4:28 p.m.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 5, 4, 10, 7, 7, 5, 10, 7, 8.

Ciaran Thornton’s Lrc pick of the day

RACE FIVE: No. 6 Encountress (10-1)

Encountress looks interesting at a 10-1 price for trainer Brian Cunningham with a drop in class on Saturday. Cunningham is 50% second off the layoff and has big in-the-money percentages from his 44 races this year including 57% from all horses, 60% second start, 3-of-4 second off the layoff and 1 for 1 going from route to sprint. When you bet on this trainer you make money. In a card devoid of value, I like this play.

My Los Alamitos full cards are free for the entire meet for L.A. Times readers. Just click on this link daily.

Friday’s result: Suezaaana showed some interest near the front early, but once things got going she faded to sixth in the seven-horse race.

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

11:03 Woodbine (3): $101,200 allowance optional claiming, fillies 3-years-old, 6 furlongs. Favorite: American Tap (8-5)

11:24 Belmont (3): Grade 3 $100,000 Victory Ride Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 6 ½ furlongs. Favorite: Frank’s Rockette (3-5)

12:43 Woodbine (6): $108,700 allowance optional claiming, 3 and up, 7 ½ furlongs. Favorite: Osage Moon (2-1)

1:15 Woodbine (7): $125,000 Queenston Stakes, Ont-bred 3-year-olds, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Halo Again (2-1)

1:45 Delaware (8): Grade 3 $300,000 Delaware Oaks, fillies 3-years-old, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Piece of My Heart (2-1)

1:46 Woodbine (8): Grade 2 $175,000 Eclipse Stakes, 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Mr Ritz (1-1)

2:13 Belmont (8): Grade 3 $150,000 Poker Stakes, 4 and up, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: It’s All Relevant (3-5)

2:15 Delaware (9): Grade 3 $200,000 Kent Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles on turf. Favorite: Gufo (5-2)

2:17 Woodbine (9): $101,200 allowance, 3 and up, 6 ½ furlongs. Favorite: Muskoka Son (3-1)

2:47 Belmont (9): Grade 1 $500,000 Metropolitan Handicap, 3 and up, 1 mile. Favorite: McKinzie (2-1)

2:48 Woodbine (10): $123,200 maiden special weight, 3 and up, 7 furlongs on the turf. Favorite: US Army Corps (3-1)

3:20 Belmont (10): Grade 1 $400,000 Manhattan Stakes, 4 and up, 1 ¼ miles on turf. Favorite: Instilled Regard (2-1)

3:28 Los Alamitos (6): Grade 3 $150,000 Los Alamitos Derby, 3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Uncle Chuck (6-5)

3:51 Belmont (11): Grade 2 Suburban Stakes, 4 and up, 1 ¼ miles. Favorite: Mr. Buff (2-1)

4:28 Los Alamitos (8): Grade 2 $200,000 Great Lady M Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 6 ½ furlongs. Favorite: Bellafina (4-5)

Chris Wade’s non-LA pick of the day

In case you forgot, Los Alamitos nighttime racing is taking this Saturday evening off.

Now, the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.