Horse racing newsletter: Stronach suit is settled

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we get the inside from contributors Ron Flatter, Rob Henie and Matt Dinerman.

Before we get to our action-packed newsletter, let’s close the book on the litigation between Belinda Stronach and her father, Frank Stronach. In short, Belinda gets the race tracks, the gaming and all ancillary businesses. Frank gets the stallion and breeding business and all the farms.

Technically, it was Frank and Elfriede Stronach vs. Belinda Stronach, Frank Walker and Nicole Walker, Alon Ossip and the Stronach Consulting Group.

It never got to court, except for the official dismissal of the case, but instead was a negotiated settlement.

Here’s what the two parties said, or, more like what their reps wrote for them as if they said it.

Belinda Stronach: “I am pleased that my father will be able to focus on an agricultural business and related projects that are his passion. The settlement will allow The Stronach Group to continue building successful companies with quality jobs that contribute to the community.”

Frank Stronach: “I am glad that our disagreements have been resolved amongst ourselves and have utmost confidence in The Stronach Group’s Thoroughbred racing and gaming businesses, which will remain under Belinda’s management.”

So, there you have it. There were some salacious headlines and factoids along the way, but in the end, it was pretty much how it started.

On to the good stuff.

The Flatter files

It’s time for our weekly contribution from Ron Flatter of the Vegas Stats and Information Network and Horse Racing Nation. He updates us on all the vagaries of Kentucky Derby Futures. Ron, what do you have for us today?

“I am not good at math, but numbers fascinate me. I am often frustrated by betting, but I am consumed by odds. I would love to get back to a racetrack, but for now I am obsessed with using my laptop to monitor horse racing futures.

“Anyone who has taken even a drive-by glance at my Twitter account (@ronflatter) knows that I frequently update the futures odds for the Kentucky Derby. Frequently? Since Garth was the first horse listed by a British bookmaker last August, I have posted 107 updates comparing the odds here in Las Vegas to those in foreign books. They include 43 since the original Derby day May 2.

“The price for Champagne and Holy Bull and Florida Derby and Belmont and Travers winner Tiz the Law continues to shorten. About the only place where he is better than odds-on is at Circa Sports, where at plus-105 he is barely even money. William Hill Nevada has him at 4-5. William Hill U.K. shows him at 10-11, the same price that gamblers lay when they bet a football game.

“This week a milestone was passed when British bookmakers finally took down 47 horses that should have been dropped long ago — including the ever-winless Garth. Names such as American Theorem, Green Light Go, the two Liam’ses (Lucky Charm and Point), Montauk (Don’t Call Me Ny) Traffic, Mr. Monomoy (not that Girl), Shotski, Untitled and so many others that will leave here unnamed.

“Dennis’ Moment’s name also hit the floor. Way back in late October, when William Hill Nevada opened its Derby futures, he and Eight Rings were the 10-1 co-favorites. That was the weekend before the Breeders’ Cup, where Dennis’ Moment was left at the gate in the Juvenile. That last-place finish and one more in the Fountain of Youth spelled the end of his Derby trail. After being turned out, Dennis’ Moment just got back to Dale Romans’ barn last month.

“Eight Rings’ name is still hanging at a couple British books. He carries odds of 50-1 to win the Derby, but he may as well be a hundred times that. He has flopped in his two starts this year, both sprints. In truth he is a race book straggler, just like Independence Hall and Mischevious Alex. They are all still available at a few London shops where they have not bothered to check if that American soup is on the boil.

“The futures market truly reflects the fickle nature of horseplayers and the game itself. Where else could Art Collector sit almost all spring at odds of 250-1 only to become the Kentucky darling that is now 6-1 or shorter?

“That is nothing compared with two years ago this month, when Roadster opened at 25-1 and Instagrand at 30-1 to win the 2019 Derby. Even in those heady days when they ran for springtime roses, those odds were still posted nine months in advance at the Wynn Las Vegas.

“At least Roadster got to the gate. Carrying odds of 11-1 he crossed 16th and was promoted to 15th last May. The closest Instagrand got to the Derby was that afternoon’s Pat Day Mile, in which he finished eighth.

“Even the Wynn did not make it to last year’s race. Its horse-loving oddsmaker Johnny Avello left after 13 years to take charge of DraftKings Sportsbook, where he is still trying to wade through red tape in any number of states to reboot his racing numbers. Without him the Wynn has not booked a racing future since.

“As I ruefully take the names off the spreadsheet for what will be a 108th update of Derby futures, I feel like I am meandering through those penultimate scenes in each season of ‘Survivor.’ The last competitors still standing stroll past the names of the eliminated contenders, all appearing to have been made by God and Mark Burnett to blend naturally into the outcrops.

“Just think. Even as next month’s Kentucky Derby turns into a referendum on Tiz the Law, I have no doubt that very soon someone will walk into a betting shop in London — hopefully wearing a mask — and ask for a price on ... oh, pick a Baffert, any Baffert. How about his debut winner Freedom Fighter?

Kentucky Derby 147 is, after all, only 259 days away.

Ron Flatter is a host and reporter who covers horse racing for the Vegas Stats & Information Network, which is available at SiriusXM 204 and to subscribers at VSiN.com. He also writes for Horse Racing Nation and hosts the Ron Flatter Racing Pod. On the current episode, legendary turf writer Steve Haskin discusses the difficulty in handicapping next month’s Kentucky Derby, jockey Tyler Gaffalione talks about his role as a substitute rider on Swiss Skydiver in the Alabama Stakes at Saratoga, and VSiN’s Vinny Magliulo handicaps weekend races. To listen to the podcast, just click here.

Weekly handicapping lesson

It’s time for our weekly handicapping lesson from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report).Today’s analysis comes from the first race at Del Mar and incorporates some handicapping angles into the mix. Rob, take it away.

“The weekend begins with a $16,000 N2L at 5 ½ furlongs. In 1977, a revolutionary new book was released, ‘Betting Thoroughbreds’ by Steve Davidowitz, who sadly passed away last year, but did leave us with some integral handicapping thoughts. The book was updated twice more over the years, including a version in 2009, in which he actually mentions my west coast report (the WCHR), as the best in the country. What a thrill for a kid reading his book in the early ‘80s, only to be included years later. Anyway, one of those first angles Steve introduced was the ‘Key Race Theory,’ where precise record keeping allowed for studious handicappers to capitalize on understanding which races were producing good ‘next out’ efforts. The mindset, in theory, was super; the only fallacy was that by the time horses were returned and results tabulated, much of the field had already run, thus, though the ‘key race’ was magnified, it often came after the fact.

“This is where over the past few years, I’ve tried to take that basic premise and expand a bit, trying to expose fields before the race was run. For example, understanding the stock of a maiden race can help the next time any of ‘em return, such as the listed $40,000 maiden condition, which is actually closer to a $16,000 group. That’s invaluable info we can use the next time any of the same runners exit and return to run. That same mindset/tool can be used in any race really, which brings us to our point here today. This is a field of eight, but there are four runners exiting the July 27 race won by Flying Business. Listed as a $16,000 N2L, this was closer to a $5,000 bunch. So, right off the bat, we’re gonna look to beat all four here, leaving us with only a field of four.

“In the end, top selection would be CANADIAN GINGER (#4), who all of a sudden has figured things out a bit with three straight decent efforts since returning as a 3-year old, while the following WCHR Handicapping Angle applies well to her Saturday. Consistent hard working recent maiden winners are usually the best type of runners to back with regard to the cheaper N2L type of races made up of only maiden winners. The mentality of many handicappers with regard to these cheap nonwinners of two is just so backwards. Many handicappers downplay the recent maiden winner, regardless of the level, giving them less credence than even multiple losers at this level, horses who’ve already been defeated at this same N2L condition, on numerous occasions. Think about that for a second. Why should a horse coming off a possible career catalyst maiden win where confidence was finally gained finishing down the lane in front of the others, be looked at in a more negative light than a horse whose only win to their own credit was also a maiden win, and since then, have lost at this same N2L level on multiple occasions? Would you rather back a proven multiple loser, or a recent maiden winner?’ This appears a pretty viable spot today for George Papaprodromou.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 4-2-3

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): 1,5,6,8

“Positive Notes:

“3 Sweet Honor - Anytime Cedillo hops aboard these days, it has to be construed a good thing.

“Morning Line Underlays / Overlays:

“4 Canadian Ginger - Morning Line 7-2 / WCHR Line 5-2

“TOP PICK: CANADIAN GINGER (#4 7-2 Gutierrez)

“SECOND CHOICE: BELLA RENELLA (#2 9-2 Diaz)”

Del Mar review

The feature on Friday was a one-mile turf allowance for fillies and mares. Nothing exceptional except for the ride by Flavien Prat, proving why he is the best jockey on the West Coast, if not points beyond. He was on the heavy favorite, Raymundos Secret, and behind a wall of horses entering the stretch. It appeared as if he thought about the inside but instead angled to the outside and squeezed between horses and went to the front, winning by a neck.

Raymundos Secret paid $3.60, $2.60 and $2.20. Tapwater was second and Ellie Arroway was third. Phil D’Amato was the winning trainer.

Del Mar preview

The track has one of those big 11-race cards. First post is 2 p.m. Last post is listed as 7:08 p.m. Sunset at Del Mar is 7:34 p.m. Five of the races are on the turf, and there is one restricted stakes race.

The ninth is the $125,000 Solana Beach Stakes for Cal-bred fillies and mares going a mile on the turf. Mucho Unusual is the 8-5 favorite for trainer Tim Yakteen and jockey Flavien Prat. The 4-year-old filly has won four-of-14 lifetime with three seconds and three thirds. Five of her last seven races have been Grade 1s, of which she didn’t win any. But, this is an ungraded Cal-bred race.

The second favorite, at 5-2, is Cordiality for Yakteen and Umberto Rispoli. This well-traveled 7-year-old mare has won 11-of-31 lifetime starts. She has won two of her last three starts, which include the Osunitas at Del Mar and the Fran’s Valentine at Santa Anita. The thing was the Fran’s Valentin was in 2019. She also ran in the race this year and finished fifth.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 6, 8, 7, 7, 9, 9 (1 also eligible), 9, 6, 9, 9.

Bob Ike’s DMr pick of the day

TENTH RACE: No, 6 Pyron (7-2)

New face from the Mark Glatt barn goes for Ship and Win money as he makes his first start at Del Mar after being claimed for $40,000 on July 9 at Keeneland. Caught a sloppy track that day and settled for fourth but should be extremely live in this starter allowance spot for connections (rider is Flavien Prat) that do exceptionally well together.

Friday’s result: Run Like Kona ($10.60) dueled on the lead from between horses, then put her pace rivals away and proved best through the final 100 yards.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here’s a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Ciaran Thornton’s DMr pick of the day

RACE EIGHT: No. 1 Kalypso (6-1)

Kalypso is the “other” Bob Baffert horse making the debut Saturday “only” costing $240,000 as opposed to the $900,000 for Illumination. What brings me here is this is a Rockingham Ranch-owned horse and Victor Espinoza gets the mount. The stud fee was a mere $12,500 and they paid almost 20 times that at auction. I’ll take that 6-1 morning line. The “other” Baffert’s have been doing well at this meet.

Friday’s results: Saints Paynter broke bad, didn’t catch any breaks but at least didn’t finish last and was able to beat one horse. This trainer is ice cold right now.

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Golden Gate Fields weekend preview

He’s back for yet another Golden Gate meeting. Yes, track race caller and all-around good guy Matt Dinerman returns as our host for previews and other musings from up north. So, take it away, Matt.

“The summer meet at Golden Gate Fields began Thursday and runs through Sunday, Oct. 4. First post each race day is 1:45 p.m. Horseplayers should note that a number of wagers from the recently concluded Wine Country Racing meet will revert back to standard Golden Gate Fields bets that many are accustomed to playing.

“The 20 cent Golden Pick Six jackpot wager and the 50 cent Early Pick 5, the first five races with a low 14% takeout, were back on Thursday. Trifecta’s and rolling Pick 3’s return with a 50 cent minimums while the rolling Super High Five wager is a $1 minimum.

“At the Wine Country meet, Jonathan Wong won the training title with eight wins from 26 starters (31%), finishing ahead of Andy Mathis (4 for 12). Kyle Frey took home the jockey title with 11 wins, three more than second-place riders William Antongeorgi III and apprentice Santos Rivera, who had a seven-pound weight advantage. Frey is off to a phenomenal start at the current summer meet winning five of seven races on Thursday.

“Our feature race on Saturday is the seventh race, an allowance for 3-year-olds and up on Tapeta. No. 2 Angelo’s Pride is the 9-5 morning-line favorite for trainer Bill Delia after a number of off-the-board finishes against second-level allowances runners earlier in the year. No. 6 Friday’s At Shady, campaigned by the red-hot Isidro Tamayo barn, is likely to get play, as is the Ellen Jackson trained No. 5 River Rose, a full sibling to the graded stakes placed gelding Many Roses.

On the Sunday, the seventh, a maiden special weight for 2-year-old fillies, catches the eye. Southern California trainer Michael McCarthy ships No. 1 Risen Lady, by Kantharos out of a Candy Ride mare. She has been working at Del Mar in preparation for this career debut. No. 2 La Reine’s Lagacy makes her first start for trainer Blaine Wright and boasts loads of turf breeding: by Hit It a Bomb out of a Leroidesanimaux mare. No. 3 Exquisite Legacy is a half sibling to a 14-time winner while No. 4 Fictional is out of a stakes-placed mare. No. 5 Do You Hear That is trained by a high percentage conditioner, Quinn Howey, and No. 6 Reina De Reyes is the only filly in the race that has afternoon experience.”

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

11:03 Woodbine (3): Grade 2 $175,000 Dance Smartly Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 ¼ miles on turf. Favorite: Etoile (7-5)

11:34 Woodbine (4): $123,200 maiden special weight, fillies and mares 3 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Excelling (3-1)

12:41 Woodbine (6): $101,200 allowance, fillies and mares 3 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Samurai Queen (2-1)

1:14 Woodbine (7): Grade 3 $125,000 Bold Venture Stakes, 3 and up, 6 ½ furlongs. Favorite: Pink Lloyd (4-5)

1:47 Woodbine (8): $150,000 Plate Trial Stakes, Ont-bred 3-year-olds, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Clayton (4-5)

2:07 Saratoga (8): $500,000 Saratoga Derby Invitational, 3-year-olds, 1 3/16 on turf. Favorite: Decorated Invader (7-5)

2:12 Monmouth (10): $150,000 Pegasus Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Pneumatic (5-2)

2:22 Woodbine (9): Grade 2 $175,000 King Edward Stakes, 3 and up, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Silent Poet (9-5)

2:43 Saratoga (9): Grade 1 $500,000 Alabama Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 ¼ miles. Favorite: Swiss Skydiver (1-1)

2:57 Woodbine (10): $500,000 Woodbine Oaks, Ont-bred fillies 3-years-old, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Lasting Union (5-2)

6:12 Del Mar (9): $125,000 Solana Beach Stakes, Cal-bred fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Mucho Unusual (8-5)

Chris Wade’s LA pick of the day

RACE SEVEN: No. 2 Get Away Car (4-1)

He is a talented albeit strife-finding runner who has recorded several figures that would put him in contention for Saturday’s endeavor. In his last effort 41 nights ago, this gelding got fractious prior to breaking slow at the gate opening, losing over a length of ground to a quality field. After the horrible start, this runner finished well under a hold for sixth while earning a solid number when trouble and track variant are factored in. He’s much better than that last effort and if he can return with his typical out, aided by a clean journey, he capable of scoring a victory at a medium mutual price.

Now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.