Dodgers Dugout: Should Shohei Ohtani be batting leadoff?

Hi, and welcome to another edition of Dodgers Dugout. My name is Houston Mitchell, and it’s way too hot out. Good thing there’s all those fans in the stadium to keep us cool.

When Mookie Betts broke his hand, the Dodgers had to decide who should be the new leadoff hitter. They decided Shohei Ohtani would get the job, which was a bit puzzling at first, because you don’t often see your best power hitter batting leadoff. They have averaged 6.67 runs per game since then, so it seems to be working. But is it the best lineup?

There are several sites and simulation games that offer a program, usually called a lineup optimizer, to tell you how many runs a lineup would average. Put in the players and their stats, and it will spit out the best lineups for you to use. I used two, one found here, and one built into the Strat-o-Matic game engine, to see how the Dodgers would do with different players at third base.

Here are the results:

With Cavan Biggio at third base
5.47 runs per game
Freddie Freeman
Shohei Ohtani
Jason Heyward
Teoscar Hernández
Will Smith
Andy Pages
Miguel Rojas
Gavin Lux
Cavan Biggio

5.43 runs per game
Freddie Freeman
Shohei Ohtani
Jason Heyward
Teoscar Hernández
Will Smith
Miguel Rojas
Andy Pages
Gavin Lux
Cavan Biggio

Worst lineup
4.29 runs per game
Andy Pages
Gavin Lux
Will Smith
Cavan Biggio
Miguel Rojas
Freddie Freeman
Jason Heyward
Shohei Ohtani
Teoscar Hernández

With Kiké Hernández at third
Best lineups
5.29 runs per game
Freddie Freeman
Shohei Ohtani
Jason Heyward
Teoscar Hernandez
Will Smith
Andy Pages
Miguel Rojas
Gavin Lux
Kike Hernandez

5.27 runs per game
Freddie Freeman
Shohei Ohtani
Jason Heyward
Teoscar Hernandez
Will Smith
Miguel Rojas
Andy Pages
Gavin Lux
Kiké Hernández

Worst lineup
4.18 runs per game

Andy Pages
Gavin Lux
Will Smith
Miguel Rojas
Kiké Hernández
Freddie Freeman
Jason Heyward
Shohei Ohtani
Teoscar Hernández

With Chris Taylor at third
Best lineups
5.02 runs per game

Freddie Freeman
Shohei Ohtani
Jason Heyward
Teoscar Hernández
Will Smith
Andy Pages
Miguel Rojas
Chris Taylor
Gavin Lux

5.01 runs per game
Freddie Freeman
Shohei Ohtani
Jason Heyward
Teoscar Hernandez
Will Smith
Miguel Rojas
Andy Pages
Chris Taylor
Gavin Lux

Worst lineup
4.02 runs per game
Andy Pages
Gavin Lux
Will Smith
Chris Taylor
Miguel Rojas
Freddie Freeman
Jason Heyward
Shohei Ohtani
Teoscar Hernández

Just for fun:
Chris Taylor at third, Austin Barnes at catcher
Best lineup
4.64 runs per game
Freddie Freeman
Shohei Ohtani
Miguel Rojas
Teoscar Hernández
Jason Heyward
Andy Pages
Gavin Lux
Chris Taylor
Austin Barnes

Worst lineup
4.02 runs per game
Gavin Lux
Chris Taylor
Miguel Rojas
Austin Barnes
Andy Pages
Freddie Freeman
Jason Heyward
Shohei Ohtani
Teoscar Hernández

The top 25 run-scoring lineups, no matter what simulation you use, has Freddie Freeman leading off and Shohei Ohtani batting second.

Of course, while that’s very interesting, there’s one big caveat: It doesn’t take into account the human factor. Maybe Ohtani asked and wanted to bat leadoff. Maybe Freeman doesn’t like to bat leadoff. Those are really the best two options, and you do want your best hitters to get as many at-bats as possible.

Mookie Betts, for example, prefers to bat leadoff, and he has hit better from the leadoff spot than from any other position in the batting order throughout his career.

As longtime readers of this newsletter know, I love stats. The more information we can learn statistically, the more we can understand what a player brings to the table and how he compares to other players. But analytics are great if you are running a computer team. If you are running a team with actual humans, you can’t rely on analytics alone. You have to consider a lot more than that. Did the player have an argument with his girlfriend and might not be 100% focused? Did the player’s dog just die? Did he and his wife just have a baby, costing him sleep at night? Does he put extra pressure on himself when he bats higher in the lineup? There are dozens of factors that a good manager will consider when he makes his decisions.

Statistics are a great tool to have, but they aren’t the only tool. There are many factors, and there’s no way we can be aware of all of them.

Most home runs from the leadoff spot

A look at the most home runs hit from the leadoff spot of the batting order. This only counts home runs when the player was in that spot. For example, Brady Anderson hit 50 homers in 1996, but only 35 when he was first in the order.

1. Ronald Acuña Jr., 2023 Atlanta, 41
2. Mookie Betts, 2023 Dodgers, 39
2. Alfonso Soriano, 2006 Washington, 39
3. George Springer, 2019 Houston, 39
5. Kyle Schwarber, 2022 Philadelphia, 38
5. Alfonso Soriano, 2002 Yankees, 38
7. Charlie Blackmon, 2017 Colorado, 37
7. Francisco Lindor, 2018 Cleveland, 37
9. Brady Anderson, 1996 Baltimore, 35
9. Mookie Betts, 2022 Dodgers, 35
9. Bobby Bonds, 1973 San Francisco, 35
9. Alfonso Soriano, 2003 Yankees, 35

As you can see, power hitters leading off is a relatively new thing.

Cavan Biggio

He went two for four Saturday, which was good to see, but, other than being left-handed, I’m not sure what Cavan Biggio (career .227/.343/.379 in 1,500 at-bats) brings to the team that Andre Lipcius (.301/.373/.562 in triple-A Oklahoma City) can’t provide.

Uh oh

The Dodgers play the Chicago White Sox next. The White Sox are the worst team in baseball at 20-57, meaning they are on pace to finish 42-120 this season. However, they have their two best starters going against the Dodgers (Garrett Crochet and Erick Fedde), but their bullpen is horrible. This is a prototypical trap series. Let’s be careful out there.

Inspirational

Dodgers historian Mark Langill, a valuable resource for people who write about the Dodgers, and more importantly, a nice guy, has been battling a brain tumor for the last couple of months. He has returned back to work and shares with Bill Plaschke how his knowledge of the Dodgers helped in his recovery. Read it here.

What do you know?

A short newsletter this time! (Stop applauding). Barring big news, we will look at the top minor league prospects next time.

Up next

Monday: Dodgers (TBD) at Chicago White Sox (*Garrett Crochet, 6-6, 3.25 ERA), 5:10 p.m., Sportsnet LA, AM 570, 1020 KTNQ

Tuesday: Dodgers (TBD) at Chicago White Sox (Chris Flexen, 2-6, 5.03 ERA), 5:10 p.m., Sportsnet LA, AM 570, 1020 KTNQ

Wednesday: Dodgers (TBD) at Chicago White Sox (Erick Fedde, 5-2, 3.05 ERA), 5:10 p.m., Sportsnet LA, AM 570, 1020 KTNQ

*-left-handed

In case you missed it

Plaschke: With the help of Dodgers history, team historian Mark Langill battles cancer

Hernández: Shohei Ohtani retired a meme by joining a team where his heroics aren’t the only story

Shell yeah: Teoscar Hernández is the Dodgers’ always-smiling, seed-throwing motivator

And finally

Don Drysdale has some advice for Greg Brady on “The Brady Bunch.” Watch and listen here.