Dodgers Dugout: Big trade deadline deals guarantee ... absolutely nothing

Hi, and welcome to another edition of Dodgers Dugout. My name is Houston Mitchell. My vacation is over, and boy is there a lot to talk about.

There are a lot of new Dodgers (and now former Dodgers) since we last talked. Here’s a list of the newcomers, with the numbers they have put up this season (click on their name to get their full stats package):

Jack Flaherty, starting pitcher, 7-5, 2.95 ERA, 106.2 IP, 82 hits, 19 walks, 133 strikeouts, 144 ERA+, free agent after the season

Amed Rosario, utilityman, .307/.331/.417, 275 plate appearances, 17 doubles, 3 triples, 2 homers, 26 RBIs, 7 walks, 48 strikeouts, 113 OPS+, free agent after the season

Tommy Edman, utilityman, on IL all season with wrist and ankle injuries. Career .265/.319/.408 (99 OPS+). Won Gold Glove at second in 2021. In first year of two-year, $16.5-million deal.

Kevin Kiermaier, center field, .195/.236/.310, 217 plate appearances, 7 doubles, 2 triples, 4 homers, 18 RBIs, 10 walks, 66 strikeouts, 54 OPS+. Has won four Gold Gloves in center field. On July 24, announced he would retire when the season ends.

Michael Kopech, reliever, 2-8, 4.74 ERA, 43.2 IP, 35 hits, 24 walks, 59 strikeouts, 89 ERA+. Was a starting pitcher the last two seasons. Eligible for arbitration after the season.

Nick Ahmed, shortstop, .233/.277/.313, 194 plate appearances, 6 doubles, 1 triple, 2 homers, 16 RBIs, 11 walks, 43 strikeouts, 71 OPS+, won two Gold Gloves at short, free agent after the season.

Dodgers who were traded:
Utility man Miguel Vargas
Left-handed reliever Ryan Yarbrough
Left-handed starter James Paxton
Right-handed reliever Ricky Vanasco
Minor league shortstop Alexander Albertus
Minor league shortstop Jeral Perez
Minor league pitcher Michael Flynn
Minor league catcher Thayron Liranzo
Minor league shortstop Trey Sweeney

Designated for assignment:
Right-handed reliever Yohan Ramirez (with Boston but since DFA’d on July 31)
Right-handed reliever Gus Varland
Left-handed reliever Nick Ramirez

Sent to minors
Left-handed starter Justin Wrobleski
Right-handed starter Landon Knack

Let’s look at the specific deals now

—Dodgers acquire Flaherty from Detroit for Liranzo and Sweeney. This is a good pickup. Flaherty is an excellent pitcher who throws hard and strikes out a lot of hitters. Of course, last season, Baltimore thought it was getting a good pickup when it traded for Flaherty at the deadline and he went 1-3 with a 6.75 ERA in seven starts. Flaherty is an L.A. native and went to Harvard-Westlake High, where he was The Times’ pitcher of the year in 2013. “It didn’t really sink in until I got on the phone with my mom yesterday and she brought up some things,” Flaherty said Wednesday. “I think everyone deep down wants to play for their hometown team. [So] getting the opportunity to is just special.”

There’s one red flag here though. Flaherty missed a start earlier this season because of a lower back problem, and, according to the Athletic, the Yankees were interested in acquiring him before they took a look at his medical records. He received two injections in a three-week span, and hasn’t missed a start since. The Dodgers need him to just stay healthy for three more months, as he’s a free agent after this season. He should be motivated by that and the fact he gets to pitch for his hometown team during a race to the postseason.

Liranzo was a top 10 prospect according to some outlets, and we wrote about him in a previous newsletter. The Dodgers have a plethora of catcher prospects, and you had to figure one of them would be traded this season. Liranzo was the guy. Sweeney is not on top prospect lists. He was acquired before the season from the Yankees for pitcher Victor González.

—Dodgers acquire Kiermaier from Toronto for Yarbrough. Kiermaier was a league average hitter (he hit .265/.322/.419) until this season. How will the Dodgers use him, as a starter or a late-inning defensive replacement? He is now the best defensive outfielder they have (he won one of his four Gold Gloves last season) unless they decide to move Mookie Betts back to right field. Coming to the Dodgers in his final season in the majors might rejuvenate his bat. We’ll just have to wait and see. Yarbrough ate up valuable innings in the bullpen, but was deemed expendable with all the pitchers coming back from injury.

—Dodgers acquire Rosario from Tampa Bay for Flynn. The Dodgers acquired Rosario at the trade deadline last season and he played his way off the postseason roster. He’s average at best defensively, but can hit (but seldom walks). He should give them better hitting at the bottom of the lineup, but the Dodgers suddenly have a lot of guys (Rosario, Edman, Kiké Hernández, Chris Taylor) who fill the same role. Something tells me we may not see Taylor back this season, which makes this deal make more sense. Flynn is just one of many minor league pitchers at this point in his career.

—Dodgers acquire Kopech from the Chicago White Sox and Edman and pitcher Oliver Gonzalez from St. Louis as part of a three-team deal. The Dodgers sent Vargas, Albertus, Perez and a player to be named or cash considerations to the White Sox; the White Sox trade pitcher Erick Fedde, outfielder Tommy Pham and cash considerations to St. Louis. It’s impossible to rate this deal because there’s no way of knowing what Edman will contribute. He was on a rehab assignment with St. Louis and will continue that with the Dodgers. If he comes back and plays like he has in the past, it’s a good pickup because he is a Gold Glove fielder and solid hitter. Or it could be similar to when they acquire injured pitcher Danny Duffy from Kansas City at the 2021 trade deadline. We kept hearing about his potential to be a key man down the stretch. But he never returned from that injury. Kopech is a guy who throws hard but has command issues this season. Which makes him a perfect fit in the Dodger bullpen.

This trade shows how much Vargas’ stock has fallen. From a top five prospect for the Dodgers to being traded in a span of two seasons. Albertus and Perez are very young. They could turn out to be solid major leaguers, they also could never make it to the majors.

—The Dodgers sign Ahmed. He was signed after the Giants let him go and Miguel Rojas was put on the IL. He is also a multiple Gold Glove winner (the Dodgers are suddenly collecting Gold Glove winners like they collect pitchers with Tommy John surgery). He has never had an above average season on offense.

So to sum up, the Dodgers’ trade deadline deals were sort of ... yawn. I like Flaherty, and he should be a big help. The rest could surprise us. The Dodgers are now a better team than they were a week ago. But the holes they had before are still there for the most part. Other teams have holes too of course, not just the Dodgers.

The Padres did more to improve themselves than the Dodgers did, but they had to get rid of more of their top prospects than the Dodgers did.

They now have a much better bullpen than the Dodgers. The Padres effectively have four closers while the Dodgers have none (at least, that’s the way they are pitching now). San Diego acquired left-hander Tanner Scott from Miami for three of their top five prospects. Scott has a 1.18 ERA and 18 saves, giving up 19 hits and 27 walks in 45.2 innings, striking out 53. They also got Jason Adam from Tampa Bay. Those two join Padres closer Adam Suarez and setup man Jeremiah Estrada to have arguably the best bullpen in baseball. However, their starting pitching (other than Dylan Cease) has been iffy, so they may never get to that bullpen. (By the way, the Padres bullpen had a 5.92 ERA in July before the trade deadline). In all, the Padres traded six of their top 12 prospects. Their GM, A.J. Preller, doesn’t really play the long game, and believes in going all in to win the World Series each season.

“One thing we’ve never been scared of is: We’re going to trade players,” Preller said. “We’re going to trade players that are going to show up in the big leagues. … But if we get what we’re looking to do and it works for us both this year and over the next three to five years, we’re content with that.”

Two different philosophies. The long game and the short game.

So what does all this mean? According to some who emailed me, this means the Dodgers will not be winning the World Series this year. According to others who emailed, the Dodgers guaranteed their road to the title. The truth is: No one knows.

The postseason is going to come down to the same thing it always comes down to: Which team has the right combination of hot hitters and pitchers? Which team has the next Brian Doyle or Allen Craig or Scott Brosius or Billy Hatcher or David Freese to step up and get the key hits? Which team will have the next Orel Hershiser or Madison Bumgarner?

The Dodgers could ride the bats of Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith (or any combination thereof) to a title. Or a couple of hot bats and strong pitching by Tyler Glasnow and Flaherty to the title. Or, like last season, the top of the lineup could go one for 100 and they go home after the first round.

The Dodgers have acquired great players at the deadline (Max Scherzer, Trea Turner, Yu Darvish) before and not won it all. All those deals were touted as World Series guarantees by fans and pundits alike. But it didn’t happen. Yes, the Astros cheated in 2017 and should not have the World Series title, but Darvish started Game 7 at Dodger Stadium. Scherzer came up with a tired arm in the postseason.

So if anyone tells you the trade deadline deals guaranteed anything, they probably also have a bridge in Brooklyn they’d like to sell you. The hard part nowadays of being a Dodger fan is waiting until October. Because you never know what you’re going to get. Did we make the long drive to Walley World only for it to be closed? We’ll find out.

Of course, the Padres won’t go quietly

Will the Dodgers make the postseason? Yes they will. Will they win the NL West? Ask again later, the future is cloudy.

The Padres swept their brief two-game series with the Dodgers and frankly looked like a much better team. The bullpen imploded in the first game, and in the second game, Clayton Kershaw didn’t look sharp and Gavin Lux and Kershaw made costly fielding errors. I know Lux has made only five errors at second this season, but his fielding instincts are not great.

In short, the Dodgers have been an average team for two months now, riding a hot start and a poor NL West to a big division lead. But the Padres are surging, only 4 1/2 games out of first. Yes, it will help to get Freddie Freeman back, as the drop off from Freeman at first to Cavan Biggio is enormous. They have five guys who aren’t hitting in the lineup most nights. A bad bullpen right now and erratic starting pitching. And they sent two of the guys pitching well, Landon Knack and Justin Wrobleski, to the minors.

Note that this does not mean that the season is over. Far from it. But there are issues that need to be fixed. Hopefully, these things settle down when all the new players are added to the roster and start playing, but you can’t turn a blind eye to the fact the Dodgers are not as good as their record right now. And most of the holes probably won’t be filled by the players they acquired. They can still win it all, but they are making it awfully difficult for themselves.

The Dodgers should get better once (and if) Freeman, Betts, Yamamoto, Buehler, Brusdar Graterol and Miller, among others, come back. When they come back, six players currently on the team will have to be removed from the team some way. But as we see with Kershaw, and with Buehler before him, coming back 100% from an injury is not guaranteed. That doesn’t apply to Freeman of course, but he has more important things on his mind.

However, those of you who are convinced the week off before the postseason began hurt the Dodgers last season might not have to worry about that this year.

Other viewpoints

Our Bill Plaschke thinks that Andrew Friedman hit a home run by acquiring Flaherty. An excerpt:

“After two years of trade deadline failures, Friedman rediscovered his big swing Tuesday, baseball’s brainiest executive stepping to the plate in the bottom of the ninth of baseball’s trade deadline and pulling off a last-gasp acquisition of Flaherty for two prospects.

“This is big. This is really big. This is October big.”

You can read the whole thing here.

Our Dylan Hernández sees it as more of a broken-bat single. An excerpt:

“The Dodgers raised their floor, in the sense that the reinforcements should prevent the bottom from falling out. But if their ceiling is any higher now, it’s only by a small increment.

“For them to win the World Series, they will need a lot of things to go right — things that can happen but can’t be counted on to happen either.”

You can read the whole thing here.

What do you think?

Two poll questions from last time, after 15,742 votes:

How far will the Dodgers advance this season?

They will not advance past the NLCS: 42.6%
They will win the World Series: 29.2%
They will not advance past the NLDS, 16.3%
They will lose in the World Series, 9.7%
They will not advance past the wild-card round, 2.1%
They will not make the postseason, 0.1%

Will Dave Roberts be the Dodgers’ manager on opening day in 2025?

Yes, 80.8%
No, 19.2%

New poll question for this time: What grade do you give the Dodgers’ trade deadline deals?

Go here to vote.

Uh oh

—Kershaw’s fastball didn’t average over 90 mph during Wednesday’s loss to the Padres. That’s not a good sign for a pitcher coming off shoulder surgery. He failed to get a strikeout for the first time in his 424 regular-season starts.

“It’s part of the process,” Roberts said. “I just don’t think that anyone can expect him to come back and be lights out every start out, or certainly after two starts.”

Rust, sure, but not breaking 90 on the fastball? That seems like more than rust.

—The Dodgers went 11-13 in July, their first losing record in a full month since April 2018.

—Will Smith on the team: “We’ll come out of it. No doubt about it. We’re the Dodgers. We’re the best team in baseball.” Well, when you have a losing record in July and you are treading .500 over the last two months, you can’t really say you are the best team in baseball. This is the type of “We’ll turn it on when we need to” thinking that sinks a lot of teams.

Now you may be thinking to yourself “Geez, he’s turned negative this newsletter.” Not at all. The Dodgers could still win it all. But you can’t just live in the land of rainbows and unicorns. Sometimes you have to acknowledge the issues. With the exception of the COVID-shortened season, the Dodgers have won at least 100 games every season since 2019. This season, they are on pace to win 94 games. The Dodgers may be the only team in baseball where winning 94 games is considered a disappointment. But that’s the world, and the expectations, they have created for themselves.

Best wishes to Freddie Freeman’s son

Freddie Freeman left the team last week before the Houston series in order to be with his 3-year-old son, Maximus. Freeman’s wife, Chelsea, gave an update Thursday on what is going on:

“Last Friday, Max rapidly declined and went into full body paralysis. We are very fortunate to have gotten him to the hospital in time so they could reinforce his lungs. Freddie was in Houston at the time and rushed to the first flight back home. After many tests, Max is battling a severe case of Guillain-Barré syndrome. A rare neurological condition that is especially rare in children. These have been the hardest and scariest days of our lives. Maximus is such a special boy and he has been fighting SO hard. This is going to be a journey to recover, but we have faith that he will be completely healed. We have been blown away by his improvements in the last 48 hours. Maximus was excavated from his breathing tube and taken off of the ventilator yesterday, which is a huge win for us. We believe in the power of prayer and we have been witnessing a miracle in his recovery. Please continue to cover Maximus and our family in your prayers. We really appreciate and have felt all of your support.”

Before the Padres series, Dave Roberts was asked when Freeman would be back. “He’s still kind of in it with Max,” Roberts said. “I don’t see him coming back for this series and we have the off day after this series and we’ll revisit. To be quite honest, I haven’t even broached that subject of him coming back, I just don’t feel it’s right.”

Freeman should take all the time he needs to be with his son during this time. Nothing is more important than family. In the past, I’ve written we shouldn’t get too down on players when they go through mini-slumps because we have no idea what is going on with them in their personal life. This is a good example. And a good reminder that, yeah, the Dodgers struggling can be frustrating, but there are far more important things in life to worry about.

Up next

Friday: Dodgers (Gavin Stone, 9-4, 3.34 ERA) at Oakland (Joey Estes, 4-4, 4.92 ERA), 6:40 p.m., Sportsnet LA, AM 570, 1020 KTNQ

Saturday: Dodgers (Jack Flaherty, 7-5, 2.92 ERA) at Oakland (Mitch Spence, 7-6, 4.47 ERA), 6:07 p.m., Sportsnet LA, AM 570, 1020 KTNQ

Sunday: Dodgers (River Ryan, 1-0, 0.82 ERA) at Oakland (Osvaldo Bido, 2-2, 5.00 ERA), 1:07 p.m., Sportsnet LA, AM 570, 1020 KTNQ

*-left-handed

In case you missed it

Freddie Freeman’s son is fighting Guillain-Barré syndrome

Hernández: Mookie Betts returns soon from injury, but where do the Dodgers play him?

L.A. native Jack Flaherty excited by ‘special’ Dodgers opportunity, downplays back concerns

Hernández: Even with Jack Flaherty, the Dodgers still have significant problems

Plaschke: Jack Flaherty gives Dodgers dramatic trade deadline victory

With minutes to spare at trade deadline, Dodgers land starting pitcher Jack Flaherty

Dodgers acquire Amed Rosario from Tampa Bay for a minor leaguer

Dodgers acquire Tommy Edman, Michael Kopech in three-team deal with Cardinals, White Sox

Reyes Moronta, former Dodgers and Angels pitcher, dies in vehicle crash

How trade deadline dynamics have complicated the Dodgers’ pursuit of Garrett Crochet

And finally

Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle and Duke Snider talk about Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale. Watch and listen here.