Sam Farmer’s NFL Week 13 picks

The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to Pregame.com (O/U = over/under). Last week’s record 13-2 (.867); season 118-56-2(..678). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 10-5 (.667); season 85-84-7 (.503). Times are Pacific.

Baltimore (6-5) at Atlanta (4-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Ravens 24, Falcons 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 705.

Line: Falcons by 11/2. O/U: 471/2.

The mobile Lamar Jackson is starting for the Ravens, and he provides a different dimension. The Falcons are better at home, but have issues, especially on defense. Go with Baltimore’s defense.

Denver (5-6) at Cincinnati (5-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Broncos 30, Bengals 23

TV: None. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Broncos by 5. O/U: 441/2.

Bengals have imploded and are starting Jeff Driskel at quarterback. The Broncos are coming off back-to-back wins over the Chargers and Pittsburgh, and have a favorable schedule ahead.

Cleveland (4-6-1) at Houston (8-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Texans 27, Browns 24

TV: None. DirecTV: 707.

Line: Texans by 6. O/U: 48.

The Texans have quietly won eight in a row, and the defense is playing well despite a vulnerable secondary. Cleveland is gathering some confidence, and the Browns are believing in Baker Mayfield.

Indianapolis (6-5) at Jacksonville (3-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Colts 27, Jaguars 21

TV: None. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Colts by 4. O/U: 471/2.

This was a close game in Indianapolis three weeks ago, when the Jaguars had a pulse. The Colts are rolling on offense, and new starting QB Cody Kessler is going to have a tough time keeping pace.

Buffalo (4-7) at Miami (5-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Dolphins 24, Bills 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 709.

Line: Dolphins by 4. O/U: 40.

The Bills have a little confidence, but Miami is a tough place to play. The Dolphins are 4-1 at home and have been stingy all season: eighth in points allowed. Here’s betting they’ll win at home.

Rams (10-1) at Detroit (4-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Rams 38, Lions 20

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Rams by 10. O/U: 541/2.

Coach Sean McVay knows how to keep his Rams focused, and the Rams should burst out of the week off. Good place to build some confidence against the run, and get Aqib Talib back in the flow.

Arizona (2-9) at Green Bay (4-6-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Packers 35, Cardinals 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 711.

Line: Packers by 14. O/U: 441/2.

The Packers are far from perfect, but they are a lot better than the Cardinals, plus the game is at Lambeau. Green Bay will establish the run, Aaron Rodgers will execute play-action and have a big day.

Chicago (8-3) at N.Y. Giants (3-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Bears 28, Giants 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Bears by 4. O/U: 441/2.

Eli Manning is starting behind that porous offensive line, and he won’t have much more than a blink to throw the ball against Chicago’s smothering defense. No matter who’s at QB, the Bears roll.

Carolina (6-5) at Tampa Bay (4-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Panthers 27, Buccaneers 23

TV: None. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Panthers by 31/2. O/U: 541/2.

Carolina should bounce back from its three-point home loss to Seattle, and Tampa Bay put a good all-around game together in a rout of San Francisco. The Buccaneers defense is beat up though.

Kansas City (9-2) at Oakland (2-9)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Chiefs 34, Raiders 20

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Chiefs by 15. O/U: 551/2.

The Raiders have no pass rush, so Patrick Mahomes will sit back and pick them apart. Oakland might have a shred of pride that keeps this interesting for a bit, but Kansas City is just too much.

N.Y. Jets (3-8) at Tennessee (5-6)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Titans 21, Jets 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 715.

Line: Titans 71/2. O/U: 401/2.

The Titans will bounce back and have a decent defensive performance. Difficult to run on the Jets, so this should be a low-scoring game that’s fairly close, but go with the home team.

Minnesota (6-4-1) at New England (8-3)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Vikings 31, Patriots 28

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 716.

Line: Patriots by 5. O/U: 491/2.

With Rob Gronkowski back and healthy, the Patriots are a different animal. But the Vikings’ defense is coming alive, and they can rush the passer with four. Hard to pick against Pats at home, but…

San Francisco (2-9) at Seattle (6-5)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Seahawks 28, 49ers 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 717.

Line: Seahawks by 10. O/U: 46.

The 49ers are limping into this, and they can’t rely on their quarterback play, particularly in such a tough stadium for visitors. Seattle can run it or throw it, and the Seahawks still have a pulse.

Chargers (8-3) at Pittsburgh (7-3-1)

Sunday, 5:15 p.m.

Steelers 31, Chargers 27

TV: Channel 4.

Line: Steelers by 31/2. O/U: 52.

The Chargers are perfectly capable of winning this game, even with Melvin Gordon out. But the edge goes to the Steelers because of the way they rise to the occasion in prime-time games.

Washington (6-5) at Philadelphia (5-6)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

Redskins 24, Eagles 21

TV: ESPN.

Line: Eagles by 61/2. O/U: 45.

The NFC East is tight, and both teams badly need this win. The Eagles had a tough time slowing Saquon Barkley on Sunday, and their secondary is banged up. Washington is rested and capable.