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NFL Week 16 picks: Cowboys-Dolphins, Ravens-49ers best Christmas weekend bets

NFL logo for Sam Farmer picks
(Tim Hubbard / Los Angeles Times)
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The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = over/under). Last week’s record 10-6 (.625); season 134-90 (.598). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 5-11 (.313); season 107-112-5 (.489). TV channels are for Los Angeles area. All times Pacific.

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New Orleans (7-7) at RAMS (7-7)

Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) avoids a tackle by Commanders defensive tackle Daron Payne (94).
Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) has played well under pressure.
(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times)

Tonight, 5:15

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TV: Channel 11 (Fox), Amazon Prime Video

Line: Rams by 4 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.

A playoff berth is in the hands of the Rams, who are reborn with a solid running game and a super-sharp Matthew Stafford. A worry for them is Saints tight end Jimmy Graham in the red zone.

Prediction: Rams 27, Saints 20

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Cincinnati (8-6) at Pittsburgh (7-7)

Bengals quarterback Jake Browning (6) sets to throw a pass.
Bengals quarterback Jake Browning has played well since taking over the starting role in place of Joe Burrow.
(Carolyn Kaster / Associated Press)

Saturday, 1:30 p.m.

TV: Channel 4 (NBC)

Line: Bengals by 1 1/2. O/U: 37.

Jake Browning has played really well, and even though Ja’Marr Chase is banged up, it doesn’t take a ton of scoring to top Pittsburgh. The Steelers are struggling on offense and have lost three in a row.

Prediction: Bengals 21, Steelers 14

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Buffalo (8-6) at CHARGERS (5-9)

Chargers quarterback Easton Stick (2) sets to pass.
Chargers quarterback Easton Stick (2) will make his second NFL start.
(Ryan Sun / Associated Press)

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Saturday, 5 p.m.

TV: Channel 4 (NBC), Peacock

Line: Bills by 12 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

Teams often get a bump when they fire their coach, but it’s hard to envision the Easton Stick-led Chargers beating the red-hot Bills, who are coming off consecutive victories over Kansas City and Dallas.

Prediction: Bills 31, Chargers 13

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Seattle (7-7) at Tennessee (5-9)

Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis (8) is brought down by the Houston Texans.
The Titans have not been able to protect quarterback Will Levis (8).
(John Amis / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: Channel 2 (CBS)

Line: Seahawks by 2 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

Titans have big problems at quarterback and their offensive line is terrible, absolutely cannot protect. Even though they’re at home, I don’t like them derailing the suddenly confident Seahawks.

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Prediction: Seahawks 24, Titans 20

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Detroit (10-4) at Minnesota (7-7)

Minnesota Vikings quarterback Nick Mullens sets to throw against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Nick Mullens will start at quarterback for the Vikings this week.
(Jay LaPrete / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: Channel 11 (Fox)

Line: Lions by 3. O/U: 46 1/2.

The Lions scored 42 last week and started to look like themselves again. The Vikings have lost three of four, even though their defense has played pretty well. Division game so it should be closer.

Prediction: Lions 27, Vikings 23

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Indianapolis (8-6) at Atlanta (6-8)

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew (10) sets to throw against the New Orleans Saints.
Quarterback Gardner Minshew has led the Colts to five wins in six games.
(Michael Conroy / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

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TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Falcons by 1 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

The Colts have won five of six and they’re 5-2 on the road. Atlanta doesn’t have an answer at quarterback and has a defense that just gave up a winning 90-yard drive to Carolina in the rain.

Prediction: Colts 24, Falcons 16

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Green Bay (6-8) at Carolina (2-12)

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) runs in the open field.
Quarterback Jordan Love (10) aims to get the Packers back on track against the Panthers.
(Nam Y. Huh / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Packers by 4 1/2. O/U: 36 1/2.

The Packers looked good a few weeks ago but are coming off back-to-back losses. They have defensive problems, though, and Carolina has gotten a little confidence boost with the win over Atlanta.

Prediction: Packers 21, Panthers 13

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Cleveland (9-5) at Houston (8-6)

Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett (95) warms up before a game against the New York Jets.
Defensive end Myles Garrett (95) leads a stout Browns defense.
(Ron Schwane / Associated Press)

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Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Browns by 2 1/2. O/U: 40 1/2.

Case Keenum did a good job last week, but if C.J. Stroud remains in concussion protocol and the Texans are once again without their star rookie quarterback ... gotta go with Cleveland’s defense.

Prediction: Browns 23, Texans 18

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Washington (4-10) at N.Y. Jets (5-9)

New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers looks up at the scoreboard from the sideline.
New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been activated from injured reserve but will not play again this season.
(Lynne Sladky / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Jets by 3. O/U: 37 1/2.

At some point, the NFL’s schedule makers thought this would be an enticing matchup. But the Jets have lost six of seven and the Commanders seven of eight. Maybe Jets can run in this matchup.

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Prediction: Jets 13, Commanders 10

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Jacksonville (8-6) at Tampa Bay (7-7)

Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) sets to throw against the Packers.
Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) has been on a hot streak.
(Mike Roemer / Associated Press)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Buccaneers by1 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

Baker Mayfield is coming off a career game and the Buccaneers are feeling good about themselves after three consecutive victories. Concussion status for Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence is problematic.

Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Jaguars 21

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Dallas (10-4) at Miami (10-4)

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) sets to throw during warmups.
Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) gets to face the Cowboys defense at home.
(Doug Murray / Associated Press)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

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TV: Channel 11 (Fox)

Line: Dolphins by 1 1/2. O/U: 51 1/2.

When proud and talented teams get embarrassed, they often come out strong the next week. Dallas falls into that category after a debacle against Buffalo. The Cowboys bounce back.

Prediction: Cowboys 28, Dolphins 23

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Arizona (3-11) at Chicago (5-9)

Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) runs against the Cleveland Browns.
Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) and Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray can torture defenses with their running ability.
(Kirk Irwin / Associated Press)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Bears by 4 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

The Bears have been playing a little better lately, and their defense has looked pretty solid at times. Kyler Murray helps Arizona, but not enough. Justin Fields runs around and makes a big play or two.

Prediction: Bears 21, Cardinals 17

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New England (3-11) at Denver (7-7)

Denver Broncos coach Sean Payton and quarterback Russell Wilson (3) talk during a timeout.
Broncos coach Sean Payton and quarterback Russell Wilson (3) will need to gameplan against a steady Patriots defense.
(Bart Young / Associated Press)

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Sunday, 5:15 p.m.

TV: NFL Network

Line: Broncos by 6 1/2. O/U: 34 1/2.

The Patriots are playing well on defense but their offense is a non-starter. The Broncos are playing well on defense, and they’re at home, but a lot rides on Russell Wilson and football protection.

Prediction: Broncos 24, Patriots 17

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Las Vegas (6-8) at Kansas City (9-5)

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes scrambles into open field.
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is difficult to beat on Kansas City’s home field.
(Ed Zurga / Associated Press)

Monday, 10 a.m.

TV: Channel 2 (CBS)

Line: Chiefs by 10. O/U: 41 1/2.

The Raiders tend not to win in Kansas City, but they should keep it close. The Chiefs have been wobbly lately. Their defense does enough in this game, and Patrick Mahomes comes through again.

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Prediction: Chiefs 24, Raiders 20

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N.Y. Giants (5-9) at Philadelphia (10-4)

Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts readies to throw a long pass.
Quarterback Jalen Hurts and the Eagles have lost three games in a row.
(Matt Rourke / Associated Press)

Monday, 1:30 p.m.

TV: Channel 11 (Fox)

Line: Eagles by 11 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

A get-right game for the Eagles, who are coming off a painful loss at Seattle. Philadelphia establishes the run as that offensive line takes over, and that’s enough to control the game.

Prediction: Eagles 27, Giants 17

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Baltimore (11-3) at San Francisco (11-3)

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) throws the ball against the Arizona Cardinals.
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) has the highest quarterback rating in the NFL.
(Rick Scuteri / Associated Press)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

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TV: Channel 7 (ABC)

Line: 49ers by 5 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.

San Francisco is a cut above. They have so many weapons, and Brock Purdy gets the ball to them quickly. That should be enough to neutralize a fierce Baltimore pass rush and smothering secondary.

Prediction: 49ers 30, Ravens 23

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