NFL Week 1 picks: Season kicks off with super matchups Ravens-Chiefs, Packers-Eagles

The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = over/under). Last season’s record 162-110 (.596). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer had predicted, his record against the spread would have been 130-135-7 (.491). Team records from last season. TV channels are for Los Angeles area. All times Pacific.

A national TV audience will be looking at Derrick Henry (22) in a Ravens uniform for the first time.

(Nick Wass / Associated Press)

Tonight, 5:20 p.m. TV: Channel 4

Line: Chiefs by 3. O/U: 46½

Patrick Mahomes might have his best collection of receivers, and that will more than offset the step back for Kansas City on defense. Derrick Henry gives Baltimore another boost. Close game.

Pick: Chiefs 27, Ravens 23

Saquon Barkley (26) will make his Philadelphia Eagles debut in Brazil.

(Terrance Williams / Associated Press)

Friday in Brazil, 5:15 p.m. TV: Peacock

Line: Eagles by 2½. O/U: 48½.

Saquon Barkley is a huge addition to the Eagles, and adding Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator makes a difference too. Packers figure to be a work in progress early on.

Pick: Eagles 31, Packers 24

Quarterback Russell Wilson hopes to fit in better with the Pittsburgh Steelers than he did with the Denver Broncos.

(Gene J. Puskar / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: Channel 11

Line: Falcons by 3½. O/U: 42½.

The Falcons have some potent weapons on offense and their safety tandem could be scary. Stopping the run won’t be easy against the Steelers. As for Pittsburgh’s quarterback situation, we’ll see.

Pick: Falcons 24, Steelers 20

Quarterback Josh Allen aims to lead the Buffalo Bills deeper into the playoffs this season.

(Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Bills by 6½. O/U: 48½.

The Bills have a lot to prove but Josh Allen is up to the challenge. They should be able to take care of business at home against the improved but not-quite-there Cardinals, who play hard for Jonathan Gannon.

Pick: Bills 28, Cardinals 21

No. 1 draft pick Caleb Williams gets to make his NFL debut in Chicago.

(Nam Y. Huh / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Bears by 4½. O/U: 44½.

Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams is coming into a really good situation, especially with those receivers. He’ll make some mistakes but Bears can score. Titans could struggle mightily this season.

Pick: Bears 27, Titans 17

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) has plenty of targets on offense.

(Jeff Dean / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Bengals by7½. O/U: 40½.

These are not the Patriots of old. Cincinnati should win this handily. The Bengals pass rush will create all sorts of problems for New England, and Joe Burrow & Co. should be fine.

Pick: Bengals 31, Patriots 13

Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson didn’t get to play much of his rookie season because of injury.

(Michael Conroy / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Texans by 2½. O/U: 48½.

Lots of hype for Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson, who does not have much NFL experience. C.J. Stroud is coming off a historic season. Houston could cool a bit this year, but still a solid team.

Pick: Texans 23, Colts 20

The combination of coach Doug Pederson and quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) has improved the Jacksonville Jaguars.

(Chris O’Meara / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Dolphins by 3½. O/U: 48½.

Not a lot of buzz about Jacksonville, but that’s a talented team that could do some damage. The Dolphins have the offense and need a defense to match. Could be an exciting game.

Pick: Jaguars 31, Dolphins 28

Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young, the top pick of the 2023 NFL draft, had a rocky rookie season.

(Jacob Kupferman / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Saints by 3½. O/U: 41½.

The Saints are better and they’re at home. Hard to know what to expect from the Panthers and their new coach. Carolina needs to improve in so many areas after last year, it’s dicey to take them in this matchup.

Pick: Saints 27, Panthers 17

The Giants went downhill once quarterback Daniel Jones went down with an injury last season.

(Getty Images)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Vikings by 1½. O/U: 41½.

Daniel Jones is under pressure and those Giants receivers are promising but untested. Defensively they’re pretty good. Maybe Sam Arnold gets it done, but I like the home team.

Pick: Giants 24, Vikings 20

Jim Harbaugh makes his debut as Chargers coach with a home game at SoFi Stadium.

(Myung J. Chun / Los Angeles Times)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m. TV: Channel 2

Line: Chargers by 3. O/U: 40½.

Jim Harbaugh’s team is going to be tougher than last season and will be more balanced with an enhanced ground game. Which receiver will step up? Raiders are OK at quarterback but working out kinks.

Pick: Chargers 24, Raiders 18

Rookie Bo Nix has won the starting quarterback job for the Denver Broncos.

(Jack Dempsey / Associated Press)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Seahawks by 5½. O/U: 41½.

Tough place for Broncos quarterback Bo Nix to make his NFL debut, even though the Seahawks aren’t the group they once were. Seattle has the firepower to move the ball this season.

Pick: Seahawks 27, Broncos 21

Deshaun Watson could be a difference maker for the Cleveland Browns.

(Ron Schwane / Associated Press)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: Channel 11

Line: Browns by 2½. O/U: 41½.

Cleveland’s defense leads the way for the Browns, and Deshaun Watson is better than he’s been of late. Doesn’t help the Cowboys that CeeDee Lamb missed camp, and losing corner DaRon Bland is big.

Pick: Browns 27, Cowboys 24

Baker Mayfield led the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to the NFC divisional playoffs last season.

(Peter Joneleit / Associated Press)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: NFL Ticket

Line: Bucanners by 3½. O/U: 43½.

The Commanders are going to be better than they’ve been, although Tampa Bay’s Todd Bowles has a great record against rookie quarterbacks. Tampa Bay has a lot of confidence in Baker Mayfield.

Pick: Buccaneers 24, Commanders 20

Rams coach Sean McVay has the comfort of having veteran Matthew Stafford under center.

(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m. TV: Channel 4

Line: Lions by 3½ O/U: 51½.

Energy should be supercharged for this rematch, and both teams figure to be serious playoff contenders. Matthew Stafford will be sharp, but Rams defense will need time to come together without Aaron Donald.

Pick: Lions 28, Rams 24

Aaron Rodgers only played in one game with the New York Jets last season.

(Adam Hunger / Associated Press)

Monday, 5:15 p.m. TV: ESPN

Line: 49ers by 4½. O/U: 43½.

Aaron Rodgers should have a far more positive experience in this opener, but making a cross-country trip against San Francisco’s defense is not easy chore. Defensive struggle.

Pick: 49ers 21, Jets 16