Iran and Hezbollah vowed revenge against Israel. Why hasn’t it come?
After the double assassination last month of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and a high-ranking Hezbollah commander in Beirut, Iran and Hezbollah vowed retaliation against Israel, saying that vengeance was a “matter of honor.”
Many braced for a response from Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah that might trigger an all-out regional war.
But that hasn’t happened.
Almost a month after the killings, the “harsh punishment” promised by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, along with the “strong and effective” reprisal Hezbollah head Sayed Hassan Nasrallah vowed to bring upon Israel, has yet to materialize.
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And this week, Iranian officials hinted a response is not imminent.
“Time is at our disposal and the waiting period for this answer may be a long one,” said Brig. Gen. Ali Mohammad Naeini, spokesman for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in a press conference Tuesday. He insisted there was nevertheless “a serious determination to respond to the various aggressions of the Zionist regime,” a reference to Israel, and that it may not be a “repeat of previous operations.”
He appeared to be referring to Iran’s missile barrage against Israel in April, which came after Israel killed a top Iranian commander in the country’s embassy in the Syrian capital, Damascus.
Many airlines have canceled flights into Israel for fear of being caught in the crossfire. Foreign embassies have issued travel and security warnings for Israel, hitting Tel Aviv’s summer tourist season hard.
The number of travelers to Israel is down 75% in the first six months of the year, according to Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics.
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Last week, Fitch downgraded Israel’s credit rating from “A+” to “A” in the face of continued conflict in Gaza that “could last well into 2025” and the “risks of it broadening to other fronts,” according to a note from the U.S. credit rating agency.
Iran and Lebanon have experienced similar airline suspensions. For Lebanon, where Israel and Hezbollah have traded fire across the border since Oct. 8, the losses in tourism revenues are estimated to be more than $7 billion, officials say, compounding the malaise of an economy already suffering through a devastating five-year currency crisis.
In the three weeks since the killings, the U.S. deployed additional forces to the Middle East, dispatching two carrier groups — the second, led by the carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, arrived Wednesday — and a submarine, to serve as a deterrent as well as a means of defense in the event of an attack against Israel.
Concerns are growing that the conflict could next engulf Iran more directly, said Matthew Levitt, a regional expert at the Washington Institute think tank.
“Iran has ultimately one single bright red line when it comes to the prospect of regional war, which is that it not spill over into the borders of Iran,” Levitt said.
But Iran is aware it would pay a price for attacking Israel, said Ali Vaiz, an Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group think tank.
“The simple reality is that Israel and the U.S. have escalation domination,” Vaiz said. “If Iran wants to retaliate in a way that isn’t symbolic, it will invite a much more devastating blow — which at this time it cannot absorb.”
Vaiz said it might be smarter for Iranian leaders to avoid escalating tensions.
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“The Iranian leadership has had a few tactical setbacks, but strategically they are winning, in the sense that Israel has not been able to reach its strategic objectives in Gaza, and it has isolated itself internationally,” he said.
Aside from the military mobilizations, diplomats have scrambled from one regional capital to another in recent weeks with the aim of quelling tensions. Last week, the U.S. spearheaded a last-ditch effort to forge a cease-fire in Gaza, hoping that a breakthrough in negotiations would mollify Iran and Hezbollah’s demands for revenge.
That effort appears to have played a role in at least delaying an Iranian retaliation. In a statement Wednesday, Iran’s mission to the United Nations said the government “will meticulously calibrate its response to prevent any potential negative consequences that could affect a possible ceasefire.”
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